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Thread: Drew Stubbs batting issue

  1. #1
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    Drew Stubbs batting issue

    The problem Drew Stubbs has is his contact rates. There is zero problem with his plate discipline. He swings at very few balls. The problem is that he swings and misses quite a lot. This has been the knock on him all the way through the system.

    For example his over all contact rate this year is at 68%. This is below average for the majors. The major league average is around 80%. 2009 Stubbs contact rate was 76% for comparison purposes. I really have no idea if that is going to go up. Sample size isnt really there to support it. I dont know what his minor league rate what and I'm not even sure if that data would be available.

    His contact rates with balls in the strike zone is at 77%. ML Average for 2010 is 88%. 77% is not good comapritively to the rest of the league obviously. 2009 Stubbs was at 83%. The contact rate with balls in the strike zone has to come up for Stubbs to produce at a higher level.

    Stubbs in his defense doesnt swing at balls that often (20%) which is excellent. The contact rate on the balls he does swing at is awful though. 42% for Stubbs vs. 64% league average. This ultimately isnt a big deal given how little he swings, and most of those pitches are probably pitches that he cant even do much with.

    Dusty yesterday had a quote which was dead on if you ignore the Bakermetrics of it.

    ďStubbs is struggling more. Iíve got to get him more aggressive early in the count. I know everybody talks about on-base percentage and working the court. But working the count isnít helping.
    Ignoring his dumb quote about OBP and working the count the part about Stubbs being better early in the count is a valid point.

    This year Stubbs has swung at a low rate at balls in the strike zone. 57% Stubbs vs 63% League. The thing Dusty noticed through either luck or just him being a broken clock is that Stubbs is starting off with 1st pitch strikes at a extremely high rate. 67% of his ABs start with a 1st pitch strike. This is well above the league average. Stubbs has to start doing more with these 1st pitch strikes.

    Short hand Stubbs contact rates are very poor right now and hes not swinging that much, which isnt a bad thing in some cases. Its the contact rates when he does swing. Both contact rates (in the zone and out) are below average but its the ones in the zone that is killing him right now. Hes getting a fair share of strikes thrown to him (50%) its just hes not hitting them. His eye is perfectly fine.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Very good analysis GIDP. Good work.

    Sadly enough, I think Baker is actually fairly intelligent when it comes to things like this. Although he has no stats to back them up usually, but he has a close attention to detail of examples like this. The problem is he just sucks at trying to explain his thinking.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Very good analysis GIDP. Good work.

    Sadly enough, I think Baker is actually fairly intelligent when it comes to things like this. Although he has no stats to back them up usually, but he has a close attention to detail of examples like this. The problem is he just sucks at trying to explain his thinking.
    I think its a fair statement. I dont trust Baker when he riles off trying to suggest Stubbs be more like Juan Piere. Stubbs is Adam Dunn with speed and defense and less power. Stubbs has power he just doesnt hit enough to show that he does. If he can get the contact rates up hes going to be a very good major leaguer.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    I don't want Stubbs up there "hacking" away at the 1st pitch if he is batting lead off. If he is missing the pitches he should be hitting then move him back down the lineup so he can "hack" at the 1st pitch. I want my lead off guy to take a few pitches, let the rest of the team see what he has. But yes, more importantly get on base. Put him in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, let him mature.
    "Ahh, Jesus, I like him very much, but He no help with curveball." - Serrano. "Are you trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?" - Harris in Major League (1989)

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Quote Originally Posted by ian_madden View Post
    I don't want Stubbs up there "hacking" away at the 1st pitch if he is batting lead off. If he is missing the pitches he should be hitting then move him back down the lineup so he can "hack" at the 1st pitch. I want my lead off guy to take a few pitches, let the rest of the team see what he has. But yes, more importantly get on base. Put him in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, let him mature.
    Do you realize how much videotape major league teams have on these pitchers? Everyone on the Reds knows exactly how Adam Wainwright throws, what he throws, and how he looks. It's not high school where you have a new stud freshman up off the jv team who is pitching that you have never seen before, unless it's a rookie. The ol' leadoff guy needs to take pitches is the type of old school mentality that Dusty gets rocked for. If Roy Oswalt throws the first pitch of the game for a cockshot down the middle, I would much rather have my leadoff guy hack at it and make an out than take it down the pipe and fall down 0-1, then most likely 1-2 or 0-2, and making an out. As a pitcher, if the leadoff guy is swinging at the first strike you throw it makes you uncomfortably mentally. As a pitcher, you want teams to take the first strike or take til they get a strike, it gives you a decided advantage.

    The quote never said "swinging at anything" or "swing at any strike", Dusty wants him to be swinging if he gets a pitch he can drive, as all batters should be doing, unless the pitcher just walked a guy or two on 4 straight pitches.


    Serious question, if the 1st pitch of the game is right down the middle do you swing?
    Last edited by Griffey012; 04-30-2010 at 02:21 AM.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Dusty and other on here are right. If the pitch is a strike the batter needs to be swinging. Not hacking, swinging for the wall (so hard they almost fall on their ass ala Votto at times) but good solid eye on the ball contact swinging. The batter needs to establish right off the bat (excuse the pun) who owns the plate, and that it is NOT the pitcher. Letting pitchers have "freebie" strikes, such as the first pitch or 3-0 counts gives the pitcher control/ownership of the plate. As a manager, team, or player I want the opposing pitching to KNOW that if they put a pitch in the strike zone then they are risking giving up a hit everytime. I remember a pitcher (no I do not remember who or when) saying he made his living on the black lines of the plate. We need to force pitchers to live on the edges and corners of the plate, not let them live easy in the middle of the plate. Yes first pitch, even 3-0 pitches if it is in the strike zonn then we are swinging. Put the pitcher on his heels, make him try to hit edges for strikes, make him work. No free relaxed pitches. And put the ball in play!! Pokes to the gaps, texas league-ers men on base and move them around. Sure this is major league and SS make routine throw out at first 99% of the time but still make them do that instead of letting the pitcher own the plate and having batters walking back to the dug out from the plate. Contact over and over and over again. Make the other TEAM play and beat us. Stop just giving the game up at the plate to the pitcher.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    I want the opposing pitcher to be at least a little (hopefully a lot) afraid EVERY time he has to throw a strike. EVERY TIME!!! Own the plate!! 27 throw outs at first is preferable to watching batters walking away from the plate and the opposing pitcher racking up another K. Put the ball in play and maybe good things will happen, letting strikes go by do not make great or even mediocer or lucky plays happen.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    over his last 10 games Stubbs OBP has been .341, not amazing but with his speed it works.

    Still hes not getting many hits but his last 5 games he has a line of .294/.409/.353

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    GIDP, where do you find stats like these? I wanted to see some of the other players' numbers, specifically Votto.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post

    Serious question, if the 1st pitch of the game is right down the middle do you swing?
    I'm old school. I take till they throw a strike. In my opinion, that is when the ab starts.
    "Ahh, Jesus, I like him very much, but He no help with curveball." - Serrano. "Are you trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?" - Harris in Major League (1989)

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Quote Originally Posted by ian_madden View Post
    I'm old school. I take till they throw a strike. In my opinion, that is when the ab starts.
    If I am a pitcher, I love to face your team then. My confidence level instantly increases by a lot knowing I can easily get ahead 0-1. Then you get a steady diet of change-ups and breaking pitches and probably don't see another hittable fastball.

    I used to have the same mentality as you growing up, but then I realized how comforting it was for me as a pitcher to be able to get an easy first pitch strike, so I became a first pitch hitter at the plate. Sure I took a few fewer walks, but it was more than made up for by picking up a lot of extra hits because I was hitting in hitter's counts instead of a pitcher's count right away.

    All in all, hitter's just have to find some happy medium.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs batting issue

    Quote Originally Posted by sivman17 View Post
    GIDP, where do you find stats like these? I wanted to see some of the other players' numbers, specifically Votto.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/

    and Baseball reference.


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