Leake's "Earned Run"

[killuminati35]

Why was Leake's second run considered earned -- the ball that OC muffed? Here's what Rule 10.08(f) says: When in the scorer's judgement a runner attempting to steal is safe because of a muffed throw, the official scorer shall not credit a stolen base. The official scorer shall credit an assist to the fielder who made the throw, charge an error to the fielder who muffed the throw, and charge the runner with 'caught stealing.'"

OC obviously muffed that throw and the runner would have been obviously out. I don't interpret muff as Brenneman did during the broadcast when he said that the ball had to be caught, the umpire signal "out" and then the ball be dropped. Is he correct, though? That seems odd.

[mattfeet]

I asked John Fay and Mark Sheldon this via Twitter...

They said because the runner would have scored from 2nd base on the ensuing base hit. They said they can't assume runner was going to be tagged out. I want to know how they could then assume he would've scored. What if he tripped on his shoe laces? What if Rosie Red came out and tackled him? How can you assume one thing but not another?