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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #676
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Stubbs is not a good hitter, and probably never will be. However, even with below average hitting skills, he has the overall talent to be a productive player in CF.
    Not going to argue with you.

    Stubbs over about 900 plate appearances the last year and a half has an OPS of about .670 and became the second man in baseball history to fan 200 times in a season.

    I don't think that cuts it, even for an excellent defender. Others do, so be it.

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  3. #677
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He was at .707 a week ago, and hit .773 two years ago. Adjust his BABIP just to league average, and he's fine. Adjust it to his career average, and he's even better.

    He looked terrible in LA, so I understand the reaction, but even in San Fran and before, he looked better in term of pitch recognition than he ever has.
    Do you really think Stubbs will be able to put up numbers like he did in 2009 and 2010 again? Those numbers were accumulated when he was new to the league and they were still figuring him out. The league has adjusted and he just doesn't have the ability to adjust back. He wasn't a good hitter in college. He wasn't a good hitter in the minors. What makes you think he has the ability to adjust in the majors when he was never a good hitter against lesser competitiion? There are tons of guys of all types, be it power, speed or even pitchers, who have had a similar pattern. Come up, put up their best numbers in their first couple of years and deteriorate from there because they can't adjust. The spike he showed when he first came up was the anomaly, not the sub-.700 OPS he's put up in the 900+ PAs since then. Using career numbers that have been skewed by his early spike is creating the wrong expectation from this guy. His actual ability just doesn't support it. He can be a decent role player if used correctly (which is as a spot player who plays against LHP, comes in late for defense and pinch runs). On a powerhouse, like say Texas, he could play CF to cover ground in the OF to save the legs of a guy like Hamilton while the rest of the offense carries him and his act of making outs by the bushel at the bottom of the order. Even then it would only be until a better solution could be found.

    He does well covering CF, but honestly, center fielders are supposed to be good defenders and finding a guy to play defense and cover a lot of ground out there isn't that hard if your willing to settle for a sub-standard offensive player (which is what Stubbs is). His defense looks good because we got so used to horrible during the Griffey years, but he doesn't do anything special out there to make carrying his bat a must.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #678
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I thought Stubbs bunt to begin the year was a message that things would change. I think it just meant he'd worked on it and to those who thought he couldn't, shove it. Since then, it's not become a weapon. If he bunted for more hits, I know it wouldn't change his OPS, as his power would decline perhaps, but he could force pitchers into a few more 1-0 counts and just generally add some flavor to his game. Oh well. I agree with mth, he'd be better served backing up Hamilton in Texas, but as a Red he's going to be a starter this year. I think he's a big part of the personality of this team with Votto and Bruce.

  5. #679
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Do you really think Stubbs will be able to put up numbers like he did in 2009 and 2010 again? Those numbers were accumulated when he was new to the league and they were still figuring him out. The league has adjusted and he just doesn't have the ability to adjust back. He wasn't a good hitter in college. He wasn't a good hitter in the minors. What makes you think he has the ability to adjust in the majors when he was never a good hitter against lesser competitiion? There are tons of guys of all types, be it power, speed or even pitchers, who have had a similar pattern. Come up, put up their best numbers in their first couple of years and deteriorate from there because they can't adjust. The spike he showed when he first came up was the anomaly, not the sub-.700 OPS he's put up in the 900+ PAs since then. Using career numbers that have been skewed by his early spike is creating the wrong expectation from this guy. His actual ability just doesn't support it. He can be a decent role player if used correctly (which is as a spot player who plays against LHP, comes in late for defense and pinch runs). On a powerhouse, like say Texas, he could play CF to cover ground in the OF to save the legs of a guy like Hamilton while the rest of the offense carries him and his act of making outs by the bushel at the bottom of the order. Even then it would only be until a better solution could be found.

    He does well covering CF, but honestly, center fielders are supposed to be good defenders and finding a guy to play defense and cover a lot of ground out there isn't that hard if your willing to settle for a sub-standard offensive player (which is what Stubbs is). His defense looks good because we got so used to horrible during the Griffey years, but he doesn't do anything special out there to make carrying his bat a must.
    I'm not saying he will get back to his numbers from his first full year. Not even close. I'm saying mostly what you're saying, we are just arriving at slightly different numbers.

    Big differnece is thst I actually do see improvement. His strikeouts are down, and he is swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone. Most of the blame for his poor numbers goes to his extremely low BABIP. .272 compared to a career .325. That cannot be ignored, especially when his LD rate is where it was in 2010.

    This is the result partly of luck, and partly because he is hitting many more GB his season and less FB. He should do better than most hitters with GB, but teams have learned to play in a few steps, and he's just not finding the holes.

    I think the biggest problem is what our RMR feared. That Stubbs would change his approach to attempt to take advantage of his speed. Hit down on the ball more instead of driving it. He started the season with the approach, to terrible results. His slugging is way down. He went back to his old ways, and was fine until this stretch of bad luck. If he continues with his old approach, I think he'll be the low OBP, high SLG, with around a .715 OPS.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Any bets on whether or not Stubbs gets a hit before the AS break?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #681
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Any bets on whether or not Stubbs gets a hit before the AS break?
    Can I get in on that bet now?
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  8. #682
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Can I get in on that bet now?
    Do hits off of Ross Olendorff count?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #683
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Silent? Really? There's two Drew Stubbs related threads on the first page alone. Stubbs is one of, if not the most bashed player on Redszone.

    BTW, I'd drop him in the lineup before I'd send him to AAA.
    I think he needs to go down. He's not having a bad stretch, his approach to the game is wrong. He might get some decent coaching in the minors.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  10. #684
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    It wouldn't shock me to see Stubbs go on a bit of a hot streak sometime soon. If he prolongs it to a couple of weeks and starts to draw some interest, I'd be ready to "sell high" on him a a moment's notice.

  11. #685
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Should have traded him for Brantley earlier this year. That would have solved our leadoff hitter woes and Brantley is still young. His ceiling is 100 stories higher than Stubby's. However I do agree that he will get hot here soon. if only he could get on base the guy would have over 40 steals a year.
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

  12. #686
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    It wouldn't shock me to see Stubbs go on a bit of a hot streak sometime soon. If he prolongs it to a couple of weeks and starts to draw some interest, I'd be ready to "sell high" on him a a moment's notice.
    LOL, glad you used the quotation marks around sell high.

    The idea that the Reds can sell high on Stubbs this year when he had a 32 at bat hitless streak, is currently hitting .637 OPS, is coming off a two hundred strikeout season, and has about a .670 OPS over his last 900 plate appearances is a little remote.

    Maybe, if he gets real hot, the Reds can "sell medium."

  13. #687
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    LOL, glad you used the quotation marks around sell high.

    The idea that the Reds can sell high on Stubbs this year when he had a 32 at bat hitless streak, is currently hitting .637 OPS, is coming off a two hundred strikeout season, and has about a .670 OPS over his last 900 plate appearances is a little remote.

    Maybe, if he gets real hot, the Reds can "sell medium."
    Don't forget that he's arb eligible after the season. Even with those horrible numbers, he's going to get a decent raise. If the Reds can't include Stubbs in a deal, they'll probobly keep him around in 2013, but after 2013, when he's second year arb eligible, I'd say he won't be worth his arb money and will be a strong non-tender candidate. I don't think any team dealing for Stubbs will be viewing him as a guy with "3 years of control" so expectations on a return should be fairly low. He can be a guyto package with a minor leaguer for a better CF. The team acquiring him will look at him as a place holder for the guy they deal to the Reds and as a lottery ticket. The real trade target from their persepctive will be whoever Stubbs is packaged with.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #688
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    A few years ago, I hoped Stubbs could channel this guy:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...amermi01.shtml

    Instead, he's found his inner this guy:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...reedje03.shtml

    Sadly.

    (Mike Cameron is the first link and Jeremy Reed the second)

  15. #689
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I share a lot of posters' dismay at Drew Stubbs, but over his career he has the most wins of any position player drafted in the first few rounds in 2006.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  16. #690
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Last 39 at-bats, 2 hits, 2 rbi, 14 K's.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread


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