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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #616
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    -0.4 WAR. I'm thinking I miss Chris Dickerson right about now. That career .351 OBP would play on this team even with no pop.
    Fangraphs says 0.5, and baseball-reference says 0.4 WAR, so I'm not sure where you're getting a negative WAR for Stubbs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Fangraphs says 0.5, and baseball-reference says 0.4 WAR, so I'm not sure where you're getting a negative WAR for Stubbs.
    BP. But either way you slice it, he's either sub replacement or slightly over at this point. Usually with a WAR discrepancy like that I tend to fall in the middle, so replacement level he is. And he's 27 now, so I think, to borrow from Dennis Green "he is who we think he is, and we let him off the hook!" But, if you wanna crown....never mind.
    Last edited by gilpdawg; 07-05-2012 at 03:30 AM.
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  4. #618
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    BP. But either way you slice it, he's either sub replacement or slightly over at this point. Usually with a WAR discrepancy like that I tend to fall in the middle, so replacement level he is. And he's 27 now, so I think, to borrow from Dennis Green "he is who we think he is, and we let him off the hook!" But, if you wanna crown....never mind.
    I'm not saying he's a future MVP or anything, but he has had success in the past, and I think it's ridiculous to act like he won't have success in the future based on the limited amount of data that's available.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'm not saying he's a future MVP or anything, but he has had success in the past, and I think it's ridiculous to act like he won't have success in the future based on the limited amount of data that's available.
    Sure, he's not a lost cause, but he's trending downwards and it doesn't look all that promising to me. He reminds me of an outfield Willie Greene. Good for a couple of years but couldn't adjust once people figured out how to get him out.

    I hope I'm wrong. I like the guy.

  6. #620
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'm not saying he's a future MVP or anything, but he has had success in the past, and I think it's ridiculous to act like he won't have success in the future based on the limited amount of data that's available.
    But we have a ton of data. Baseball history is filled with guys who came up and were decent for a while but couldn't adjust once the league figured them out. Unless Stubbs can make a significant change to his game, I think a .700 OPS season is a pipedream from here on out. I'm guessing his OPS will continue to fall. He'll get a few chances with new teams that think they can fix him, but he'll continue to drop until it reaches the point where no team is interested. I wouldn't call Willy Taveras a "comp" for Stubbs, but I think how his career progressed is a pretty good example. I really wanted the Reds to deal Stubbs last winter while he still had some value. Many argued that it would have been selling low, but, with arb coming, I just had a hard time seeing how his value was going to go up. This year's deadline may be the last chance the Reds have to include Stubbs in a deal for anything of value.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-05-2012 at 06:00 AM.
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  7. #621
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Here's the biggest problem with Stubbs. It's not the short term 0 for 28. It's not just his .686 OPS last year or his .638 this year.

    It's his number of plate appearances.

    Stubbs had 681 plate appearances last season. By far the most on the Reds. This year, he missed time due to injury but still has 238 PA.

    That's over 900 plate appearances in a season and a half.

    When a hitter is averaging about .670 or thereabouts OPS, and he hits over 900 times in a season and a half, the offense will be hurt.

    Maybe if the Reds added another top notch hitter to the lineup, perhaps they could get away with 900 plate appearances at .670 OPS. But as the offense is presently constructed, it's become a problem.

    I said in April, and still maintain, that Stubbs' playing time needs to be cut. Unfortunately, Heisey isn't doing well either. But all these Stubbs at bats is intolerable.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-05-2012 at 09:03 AM.

  8. #622
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Geez. I wanted to trade Stubbs 2 seasons ago when he still had value and "potential".
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  9. #623
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    The problem with trading Stubbs though ... who plays CF?

    Stubbs has certainly been disappointing this year, but Heisey is not an option either.

    I just don't see any better CF available on the market, and in the Reds price range at this point.. Maybe someone else knows of one? Typically, good, young, and cheap CF are not traded, so upgrading CF is difficult, especially in midseason.
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  10. #624
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Heisey is better than Stubbs at this point, but the answer to that question isn't in the organization.
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  11. #625
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I just don't see any better CF available on the market, and in the Reds price range at this point.. Maybe someone else knows of one? Typically, good, young, and cheap CF are not traded, so upgrading CF is difficult, especially in midseason.
    This point has been made by KC as well and if the case, then so be it. Upgrade elsewhere, CF is what it is with Heisey or Stubbs, although neither have earned a place at the top of the lineup, nor a lucrative LT contract. Perhaps the market provides an opportunity down the road.
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Probably won't be easy to replace him, but I'm more than over watching both Stubbs and Heisey.

  13. #627
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The problem with trading Stubbs though ... who plays CF?

    Stubbs has certainly been disappointing this year, but Heisey is not an option either.

    I just don't see any better CF available on the market, and in the Reds price range at this point.. Maybe someone else knows of one? Typically, good, young, and cheap CF are not traded, so upgrading CF is difficult, especially in midseason.
    Denard Span is the obvious choice. DeJesus.
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  14. #628
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Denard Span is the obvious choice. DeJesus.
    Not sure DeJesus can play CF.. He played 68 games there in 2008, and only a handful since then. Given the large contract that Coco Crisp got last offseason, there's clearly a shortage of legit CF out there.. I would think that if DeJesus could play CF, he would've gotten a much bigger contract.

    Span would be nice, but why would the Twins trade their CF who is signed longterm (option year at 2015)? Seems like he would command a very steep price. Span has a career 744 OPS. That's better than Stubbs (716), but not exactly a huge upgrade. His LF bat and better OBP would be a better fit, but again.. what price are you willing to pay for just a slight upgrade in CF?

    IMO, this response proved my point that upgrading CF would be difficult, especially at midseason.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  15. #629
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Denard Span is the obvious choice. DeJesus.
    Can DeJesus still play an adequate CF (or could he ever)?

  16. #630
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    DeJesus played center for the Royals when he began and he is/was a fine fielder. But he has gotten older and I doubt he could do better than fill in as an emergency CFer now.


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