Drew Stubbs

[Hoosier Red]

I get your basic premise. Sometimes guys don't need AAA seasoning. In some circumstances, a team is just wasting time by taking a guy through AAA when he could perform in the majors -- better than existing alternatives. In the abstract, I agree. But the Reds simply haven't had any recent examples where a guy clearly was ready but was held back arbitrarily, save maybe for 2 months of Jay Bruce (who didn't exactly light the world on fire during his rookie campaign).

I think the the thought process guiding TRF and Sea Ray is symptomatic of overvaluing individual prospects.

If a farm system "produces" 7 players for the 2010 team there's a lot of value in that, even if those 7 players are SP #3,4,5 Relievers #5,6, and Bench Players #24,25. (The end of the rotation, bullpen, and bench.)

There's value in the minor league system producing that because you don't have to go out and spend on free agents to fill out a competent roster.

But I think we get wrapped up in what one prospect is doing from year to year, see that Todd Frazier is tearing up AA, Devin Mesarosco is smoking Single A and Travis Wood is untouched in AA. When those guys hit a wall, we blame it on the the farm system. Say it's holding back players. When the odds that Devin Mesarosco ever plays for the Reds, much less starts for them are pretty remote.

My guess is there is not a single farm system in Baseball that could have screwed up Albert Pujols, it wouldn't have hurt Mike Leake to go to AAA, but he was able to come straight to the majors. There's no development in those players. Likewise, you can't hold the development side responsible when you're not producing guys like that.

If we exclude Leake from the discussion on those grounds,

From the development period TRF mentioned earlier, the farm system has "produced;" a starting GG caliber CF with an above average OPS for the position, a starting GG caliber RF with an above average OPS, A major league quality backup outfielder, One major league quality backup infielder, One Roughly League Average Starting Pitcher(Cueto:99 ERA+) One Below Average Starting Pitcher(Lecure and Bailey Combined: 82 ERA), and 3 replacement level relief pitchers.
Essentially that's 11 players and 9 slots on the 25 man roster at any given time on a team that is currently 7 games over .500.

To me that sounds like a pretty good haul and doesn't even consider the development of players acquired previous to 2004, like Votto and Hanigan, the development of players like Stewart and Roenicke who were traded for a key player on the 2010 team. It also doesn't consider guys like Herrera or Masset who have spent some time in the minors but came from other organizations.

[Sea Ray]

Bruce had a great half seasons in A+ ball in 2007 before being promoted to AA. After just 16 games in AA, he was promoted to AAA. The Reds meanwhile had an OF of Dunn, Hamilton, and Junior. All three were hitting very well. At the start of 2008, the Reds wanted to give Bruce a little more time. He continued to mash in AAA, Corey Patterson bombed, and Bruce was up by the end of May. Should they have promoted in 2007? I find it hard to make the case. Should they have started him in CF in 2008, maybe. But they didn't exactly take long to remedy that and I find it extremely specious to suggest that 2 extra months in AAA as a 21 year old somehow stunted his growth.

Bailey had 13 good starts in AA in 2006. In 2007 he had 12 good starts in AAA before getting promoted to the majors. He bombed in the majors. In 2008, he had 2 mediocre months in AAA and was promoted again. He bombed again and finished the year in AAA. In 2009, he dominated AAA for 14 starts before being promoted for a 3rd time. He's been here since. If anything, that pattern suggests to me that he was advanced to the majors too early - not too late. Surely you aren't suggesting that he would be a better pitcher if he came straight to the majors in 2007 having just turned 21 and throwing less than 70 pitches above high A?

Travis Wood got crushed over 17 stars AA ball in 2008. In 2009, he pitched extremely well in AA, though with a ridiculous, unsustainably low HR rate. The Reds promoted him to AAA where he pitched well, but not great. Should he have been promoted to the majors over Justin Lehr? Maybe. Over Matt Maloney? I don't see how you could argue that consider both players' ceilings and Maloney's significant AAA success. And now this year, Wood was the last pitcher cut during camp and is pitching ok, but not great in AAA.

I get your basic premise. Sometimes guys don't need AAA seasoning. In some circumstances, a team is just wasting time by taking a guy through AAA when he could perform in the majors -- better than existing alternatives. In the abstract, I agree. But the Reds simply haven't had any recent examples where a guy clearly was ready but was held back arbitrarily, save maybe for 2 months of Jay Bruce (who didn't exactly light the world on fire during his rookie campaign).

I'm curious how you would have handled any of those 3 guys differently, even in light of the benefit of hindsight.

My point is that the Reds cannot be accused of rushing prospects including Homer. At the time the Reds needed a starter and he was tearing up AA and AAA. Whereas other teams very well may have promoted guys like Bruce and Wood after their successful AA stints.

Your point is that in many cases the Reds didn't need to bring them up and I agree.

My points were made to show that the Reds do not rush propects, if anything they make them prove themselves in AAA whereas others don't. I'm wondering if they'll make Homer do another AAA start before they let him pitch to major leaguers again. I think they might

[TRF]

My point is that the Reds cannot be accused of rushing prospects including Homer. At the time the Reds needed a starter and he was tearing up AA and AAA. Whereas other teams very well may have promoted guys like Bruce and Wood after their successful AA stints.

Your point is that in many cases the Reds didn't need to bring them up and I agree.

My points were made to show that the Reds do not rush propects, if anything they make them prove themselves in AAA whereas others don't. I'm wondering if they'll make Homer do another AAA start before they let him pitch to major leaguers again. I think they might

See, I disagree. I think they are just now making those prospects prove themselves after seeing the failures of their top prospects at the MLB level. With the exception of Votto, who was fully developed by the time he hit MLB spending a year at each level, learning the game, everyone else looks like an incomplete project. And now we have Bailey saying he's ready, but can't get through 5 innings of a AAA game. TOR arm? sure. TOR pitcher? hardly. Cueto only seems to get his head on straight after Soto pays a visit.

All I am saying is what if? What if the Reds had emphasized Stubbs power potential in the minors? He was even quoted once about his power saying he didn't know where it went, that he's always been able to hit for some power. That was an interview last year I think, before he was called up.

I like the track Mes is on, I like how slow they are going with Soto at High A and catching. BTW, I think they will stick with him at C regardless of the Grandal pick. I remain disappointed that Maloney, who has been developed has yet to pitch for the Reds this year. LeCure has had a solid development path, and it's true that some guys take longer, but he's holding his own pretty well. Had Leake not impressed so much in ST, I like to think the 5th spot would have gone to Maloney over Wood just on experience and development. But for a long time we were seeing young players way to soon. Acevedo, Reith, Davis.

Maybe woy is right. maybe it is a lack of talent, and maybe my expectations are too high. We all want Votto's produced every year, at every position. I want a Jaime Garcia, a Gallardo. I want the Reds to have a Liriano and an Andrus. Where is the Reds Longoria? I am so frustrated about this team that each success seems like a mirage. I see players the Reds used to have enjoying personal and team success elsewhere. Belisle is pitching well. Reyes, Balfour. Dunn is hitting better than he ever has. Kearns too.

So maybe my expectations are unrealistic. I can admit that. But I do remember a young team, talented at every position. Some home grown, some traded for, and a few FA's. A fantastic bullpen, and a rotation that could keep you in the game. They ground it out to the last day and one more.

This ain't that team. not quite. And that frustrates me.

[Homer Bailey]

Stubbs up to .755 from .544 when this thread started. Pretty amazing/awesome.

[fearofpopvol1]

He hit another jack tonight. He has a chance to hit 20 HRs this year. He should be a lock to hit at least 15.

Not bad for a guy in his first full year.

[OnBaseMachine]

He's got a chance for a 20/30 season as he's currently on pace for 20 HR and 34 stolen bases.

[BearcatShane]

I'm not a hitting coach, so if this is stupid, feel free to let me know, but here is something that I have noticed about Drew Stubbs.

Most of his hits seem to go the opposite way or up the middle and most of his homers seem to go to center field. I do not have a hitting chart in front of me, but I just can't recall Drew pulling many pitches into left field. When he strikes out, I'v noticed many times the pitch is on the inner half of the plate. Does he have trouble hitting pitches on the inner half? Does he have a slow bat? I don't know, just something that I noticed.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm not a hitting coach, so if this is stupid, feel free to let me know, but here is something that I have noticed about Drew Stubbs.

Most of his hits seem to go the opposite way or up the middle and most of his homers seem to go to center field. I do not have a hitting chart in front of me, but I just can't recall Drew pulling many pitches into left field. When he strikes out, I'v noticed many times the pitch is on the inner half of the plate. Does he have trouble hitting pitches on the inner half? Does he have a slow bat? I don't know, just something that I noticed.

Yes, and especially if a pitcher throws it chest high, innerhalf. I've noticed the same thing. He has gotten much better at laying off the breaking stuff low.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I can live with someone making mistakes when they are going all out. What I can't live with is loafing and making mental errors. Unfortunately, it appears Drew Stubbs makes more than his share of mental errors (see: not knowing there were two outs in the Dodgers game Tuesday night and costing the Reds a run) and also loafs from time to time. I have seen him be very casual defensively at times, which has cost the Reds runs. Not in terms of chasing a fly ball, but in terms of his urgency in throwing the ball on a tag up and things of that nature.

If he was raking, I could live with him loafing and making a lot of mental errors. But for a guy that is barely Major League ready offensively, I would like to see a lot more hustle and concentration.

[RedsManRick]

Do you have any examples of him loafing? I've seen make a few mental errors, both on the bases and in the field, but I can't remember a time when he was just lazy.

[dougdirt]

The guy runs as hard as he can to first base on every ball he hits. Not sure that I can agree that he is 'loafing'.

[fearofpopvol1]

He has loafed it for sure...at least twice I can think of, both of which were recent. One time, he lazily threw the ball in and the ball hit the pitcher's mound and the runner scored from 3B. He didn't think they would run home. On the other instance, he was being nonchalant and a runner tagged up from 1B to get to 2B. I admittedly can't remember which teams the Reds played when this happened however.

[westofyou]

I saw him give a fan the stink eye.

[Cedric]

It's a 162 game season. Can we keep this stuff in the game threads?

[Blitz Dorsey]

He has loafed it for sure...at least twice I can think of, both of which were recent. One time, he lazily threw the ball in and the ball hit the pitcher's mound and the runner scored from 3B. He didn't think they would run home. On the other instance, he was being nonchalant and a runner tagged up from 1B to get to 2B. I admittedly can't remember which teams the Reds played when this happened however.

Yep, these are a couple of the things I'm referring to in terms of his defensive "loafing." It's not just about tonight or I would have kept it in the game thread. This is an unfortunate trend I see forming.