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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #301
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    By Aaron Gleeman: Does a three-homer game mean Drew Stubbs is destined for stardom?

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    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  3. #302
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    In all fairness, it wasn't just based on the first month of this season. I think I speak for all of the "Stubbs bashers" when I say it was mostly based on his career minor league numbers. Then combined with his slow start to this season, a lot of us were worried.
    I've never put much credence in minor league numbers as the true judge of how a player may turn out. I'm not saying they should be ignored, just not so much credence (faith) put into them like some like to do when they attempt to utilize those numbers to project it into major league performance.

    Yes, I realize that it is the only "tool" we have to go on, and that many will counter by saying - "if a guy can't hit minor league pitching then his chances of succeeding at the major league level are slim", and I'm certainly not disagreeing with that aspect. Only it's still not the most reliable indicator, a lot like defensive matrix', and there are other intangibles at play, such as maturity.

    I've basically been non-committal either way with Drew at this stage. As I observe him, he plays like a kid whose been given his shot in his first full year of major league ball - he's had his struggles, his ups and downs, and IMO it's simply trying to adjust and get acclimated to the big game and show some consistency.

    He could very well end up falling on is face; but I definitely think it's too early to tell that. And that is one of the problems I have with some of the people on here (respectfully).... they're sometimes too quick in their judgments and assessments in wanting to pull the cord (give up) on the youth and throw the "next guy" into the fire.

    I think we need to be more patient with some of our youth, and guys like Stubbs. Only time will tell.
    Last edited by GAC; 07-06-2010 at 05:38 AM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  4. #303
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    I've basically been non-committal either way with Drew at this stage.
    The fan in me has no problem watching and waiting.

    The arm-chair GM in me doesn't have the luxury to watch and wait, I've got hypothetical roster moves to make.

    GL

  5. #304
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    2BB's, 1 intentional, were a great sign last night. He ups that OBP into the .350's and he's something, maybe something special. I doubted the power because I didn't think he had any idea how to harness it. But the numbers don't lie: he's a middle to lower middle of the order hitter, NOT a leadoff hitter. And he can do a lot of damage down there and not just with HR's.

    Though his OPS is lower, you can make the argument that he's been better than Jay Bruce this year. Their offensive numbers stagger a bit. Stubbs has 1 more HR, Bruce has 9 more doubles. Stubbs has 16 SB's while only being caught 3 times. Bruce has 5 while being nabbed twice. Both are excellent defenders. The overall edge is to Bruce, but Stubbs has been developing. His problem is consistency. Lets hope July is a lot like May. If it is, he could easily be a 30/50 guy, something the Reds haven't had since Eric Davis.

    That can happen if he stays the #7 hitter.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #305
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong View Post
    The arm-chair GM in me doesn't have the luxury to watch and wait, I've got hypothetical roster moves to make.

    GL
    LMAO How true, how true (in all of us)
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  7. #306
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Season OPS is at .743.

    If he could just get on base a little more than he does, he would go from being "good" to "really good."

  8. #307
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Season OPS is at .743.

    If he could just get on base a little more than he does, he would go from being "good" to "really good."
    Make that .756 after tonight with 48 RBI.

  9. #308
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Season OPS is at .743.

    If he could just get on base a little more than he does, he would go from being "good" to "really good."
    Well, he just did, cause his season OPS is .756!

  10. #309
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    Make that .756 after tonight with 48 RBI.
    Ah, thanks for pointing that out. I guess MLB.com's stats aren't updated in real time for the player pages.

  11. #310
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Ah, thanks for pointing that out. I guess MLB.com's stats aren't updated in real time for the player pages.
    For some strange reason no, but ESPN does seem to have real time individual updates.

  12. #311
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    time to bust out the Curtis Granderson comps again:

    25 years old, first full year in the majors for both:

    Curtis
    .260 / .335 / .438 / .773, 19 hr, 31 2b

    Stubbs - before 7/19
    .244/ .318 / .426/ .743, 13 hr, 8 2b

    Career splits

    Curtis
    vs RHP .289 / .364 / .523 / .887
    vs LHP .211 / .269 / .338 / .607

    Stubbs
    vs RHP .247/ .318 / .388/ .707
    vs LHP .266 / .323/ .531/ .854

    Both have great speed and power, but Stubbs weirdly only has 8 doubles. They also both struggle against their equal hand on the mound, yet Stubbs deals with RHP better than Curtis LHP. I'd still give the edge to Curtis for his higher average and all those doubles, but maybe Stubbs is turning it on down the stretch...

    Oh yeah, and both strike out a ton.

    Is Stubbs ready to hit lead off now?
    Last edited by mdccclxix; 07-20-2010 at 02:06 AM.
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  13. #312
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Is Stubbs ready to hit lead off now?
    Nope. his OPS when leading off an inning is still just .586. He just isn't a table setter.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

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  14. #313
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    Nope. his OPS when leading off an inning is still just .586. He just isn't a table setter.
    It's going to stay at .586 if he never gets another shot at it, though. Short of OCab going down, and Phillips moving back to the 2, or, god forbid, Rolen goes to the DL and Phillips goes to the 4 again , I don't see it happening, but Stubbs may yet convince Dusty and Walt he's ready to leadoff.
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  15. #314
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    It's going to stay at .586 if he never gets another shot at it, though. Short of OCab going down, and Phillips moving back to the 2, or, god forbid, Rolen goes to the DL and Phillips goes to the 4 again , I don't see it happening, but Stubbs may yet convince Dusty and Walt he's ready to leadoff.
    No that's not just figuring him as a leadoff man. That # is any inning the entire season when he is the first batter up in any inning.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

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  16. #315
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    His "slash line" is almost identical to Jay Bruce's, who most people have thought was having a nice comeback year after 2009, at least until recently.

    Stubbs: .251/.323/.433
    Bruce: .257/.330/.430

    I don't know if this says more about Stubbs or Bruce, but I do find it interesting that their numbers are so close at this point in the season.

    Stubbs has more HRs, RBI & SBs, but Bruce has more doubles.

    Even their BB/K totals are similar, though Bruce has an advantage there - Stubbs 31/93 in 307 ABs and Bruce 37/88 in 335 ABs


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