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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #406
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Apparently, I skipped over this earlier, but I question the validity of any metric that says Drew Stubbs is a mediocre or "average" fielder. I've seen bad centerfield defense, I've seen average centerfield defense and Drew Stubbs is nowhere near what I'd consider bad or average.
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  3. #407
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Stubbs is almost at 2 WAR. He may even get up to 2.5 by the end of the season. He's definitely helping the team. I would expect he could be as good as 3 WAR in the future.

  4. #408
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Stubbs is almost at 2 WAR. He may even get up to 2.5 by the end of the season. He's definitely helping the team. I would expect he could be as good as 3 WAR in the future.
    And most of that value is from his bat, not his glove, which UZR has as marginally above above. I remain concerned about his contact issues (his overall contact % is 6th worth in the majors among qualified hitters).

    At this point, he looks an awful lot like BJ Upton, the version whose BABIP and HR/FB regressed back to normal. Even watching them play, there's a lot of similarities in their skill sets, right down to the big power potential that only shows up on fits and spurts. Stubbs is just 2 months younger than Upton.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #409
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    OPS is up to .719 for the year. Still not great obviously, but around where we probably expected it, no?
    It is. I think if you had told anyone at the beginning of the year that Stubbs would OPS Between .700 to .725 for the year a vast majority would have taken it. I did a little research to see how his 1st full year year compared to similar players.

    Colby Rasmus - 2009 .307/.407/.714 (16 HR/52 RBI) put up the most similar numbers in similar ball parks...
    Colby Rasmus - 2010 .352/.501/.853 (19 HR/54 RBI)

    Shane Victorino - .346/.414/.760 (6 HR/46 RBI)

    Matt Kemp - .340/.459/.799 (18 HR/76 RBI)

    Marlon Byrd
    - .366/.418/.785 (7 HR/45 RBI)

    Chris Young - .295/.467/.762 (32 HR/68 RBI)

    Adam Jones - .311/.400/.711 (9 HR/57 RBI)

    Jacoby Ellsbury - .336/.394/.730 (9 HR/47 RBI)

    Alex Rios - .338/.383/.721 (1 HR/28 RBI)

    David DeJesus
    - ..360/.402/.762 (7 HR/39 RBI)

    Torii Hunter - .309/.380/.689 (9 HR/35 RBI)

    Drew Stubbs - .306/.413/.719 (15 HR/59 RBI)

    So there is obviously a large chance that he will show improvement in 2011 and 2012.
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  6. #410
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I think his ceiling is entirely dependent on his contact rate. I think he is literally well above average in every other phase of the game aside from contact.

  7. #411
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Apparently, I skipped over this earlier, but I question the validity of any metric that says Drew Stubbs is a mediocre or "average" fielder. I've seen bad centerfield defense, I've seen average centerfield defense and Drew Stubbs is nowhere near what I'd consider bad or average.
    In 1340 defensive innings, UZR rates him as a +7 UZR/150... Dewan's +/- has him at +8 over that time frame. Sounds about right to me given some of the of the goofs he's made along the way...
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  8. #412
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    If he can improve his bunting, his average/OBP can improve substantially.
    I was pleased with the bunt he put down on Sunday. Not great, but good enough.

    He is SO fast, any decent bunt is a hit.

    This story by Hal is old but...here's the link

    http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/con..._wondered.html
    Last edited by oneupper; 08-30-2010 at 03:58 PM.
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  9. #413
    Member aubashbrother's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I still like the Mike Cameron comp for Stubbs but with more speed
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  10. #414
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Listening to Thom Brennaman and the Cowboy yesterday, I think Thom has the same kind of man-crush on Drew Stubbs as his dad did on Steve Finley.

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  11. #415
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Listening to Thom Brennaman and the Cowboy yesterday, I think Thom has the same kind of man-crush on Drew Stubbs as his dad did on Steve Finley.

    I'm pretty sure Thom was the one with the man-crush on Finley - he of the young body.
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  12. #416
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I'm pretty sure Thom was the one with the man-crush on Finley - he of the young body.
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  13. #417
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    Wasn't that Conine?
    For Marty, Thom did love Finely for the same thing, Finley started taking Pilate's as he got older and really stressed that as his ability to play longer.

  14. #418
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Listening to Thom Brennaman and the Cowboy yesterday, I think Thom has the same kind of man-crush on Drew Stubbs as his dad did on Steve Finley.
    I don't know, his boy nicknamed him "Stubby." Like Radar O'Reilly said when called "Stinky" by a sleepwalking Hawkeye, "Hey, that's the kind of name that can stick with a guy."
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  15. #419
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Apparently, I skipped over this earlier, but I question the validity of any metric that says Drew Stubbs is a mediocre or "average" fielder. I've seen bad centerfield defense, I've seen average centerfield defense and Drew Stubbs is nowhere near what I'd consider bad or average.
    Agreed. UZR says Drew Stubbs is basically a league average defender. I can't agree with that. I watch a lot of baseball, and from what I've seen, the only center fielder who has the range to match Stubbs is Franklin Gutierrez. I've watched Stubbs turn numerous tough plays into routine plays. Take yesterday for example. Aramis Ramirez hit a ball toward left-center that looked like double off the bat - Drew Stubbs caught it without leaving his feet. He and Jay Bruce are a lot of fun to watch in the outfield.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  16. #420
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I don't know, I kind of agree with UZR. Stubbs is really good at going side to side, but he's not great going back or in. There were a couple balls hit in front of him yesterday that the Cubs announcers thought he should have caught.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldnít do it." - Brad Kullman


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