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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #91
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Usually a very fast CFer will play shallow because he knows he can go back and catch up to the ball. Perhaps Stubbs has trouble going back on the ball. I've seen a couple - like the one last night - bounce off his glove while he was going back for the ball. Granted, they were hard hit balls and few CFers could even lay a glove on the ball but that's the only reason I can think of - besides yours- why he plays back that far.
    Ball carries incredibly well in GABP to right center. Add in the fly ball tendencies of our staff and I think that's the answer.
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  3. #92
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    I still think Stubbs has a chance to be a leadoff hitter for this team one day, just not right now. Of course it would help if there was anyone else on the team ready made for that role. OC is doing a great job, but as pointed out, his batting avg driven OBP won't keep up, and I don't think many of us are counting on his walks picking up.

    TRF, you mention the power part and the correlation to walks, which makes some sense, and you were certainly preaching it last year. I think if he can ever learn to bunt in the mode of Brett Butler, and use his speed, he's going to be a guy that pitchers will hesitate to throw something straight at in fear that he'll lay it down the 3rd base line and boogey on down to first. W/ as much speed as Stubbs has, its a shame he's not a better bunter, and if he could find a way to produce solid obp% numbers ahead of a guy like Votto in the lineup, he could score a ton of runs each year. Not many are as equipped to score from 1st on a double or 2nd on a single as Stubbs is.

  4. #93
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I would imagine that, with Stubbs' fantastic speed, he cheats back a bit to have a play on the hard-hit balls that head towards the wall and trusts his own footspeed to make up the extra step or three on the softer / looping stuff.

    Could also be defensive strategy -- concede a few more singles (and a few more balls to the 2nd basemen and SS moving backwards) to protect against the XBHs off the walls and into the gap. With the plus-defending Phillips @ 2nd, I suppose you can figure that he'll get at least some of the "can't make it in" CF balls. Additionally, if the idea is that Stubbs has extra responsibilities to his right side (given Gomes' defensive adventures), it would make sense that he pay a little further back.
    We'll have to see how he plays when Gomes isn't out there.This reason seems very possible to me.Cyclone have you noticed any difference when Nix or someone else that's a better defender is in LF?

  5. #94
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Hook View Post
    We'll have to see how he plays when Gomes isn't out there.This reason seems very possible to me.Cyclone have you noticed any difference when Nix or someone else that's a better defender is in LF?
    Unfortunately, Gomes has started all the games in left this year in which I had moon deck seats and had a chance to watch Stubbs closely. I was down the left field line last night so I didn't have a great view to see if Stubbs made any adjustments when Nix entered in left.

    From a visual perspective on Stubbs and Bruce defensively, the moon deck in right center is a great area to sit because you're essentially sitting just over their shoulders. Even the small, subtle aspects jump out when you're that close. Next time I'm in that area, I'll pay attention to any small changes depending on who's in the corners defensively.
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  6. #95
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Unfortunately, Gomes has started all the games in left this year in which I had moon deck seats and had a chance to watch Stubbs closely. I was down the left field line last night so I didn't have a great view to see if Stubbs made any adjustments when Nix entered in left.

    From a visual perspective on Stubbs and Bruce defensively, the moon deck in right center is a great area to sit because you're essentially sitting just over their shoulders. Even the small, subtle aspects jump out when you're that close. Next time I'm in that area, I'll pay attention to any small changes depending on who's in the corners defensively.
    I agree. I sit in 142 row A. It's amazing how great Jay Bruce is. You notice it even more watching Garrett Jones or even Fukodome.

    Stubbs plays about the same even if Nix is in LF. Often you will see Billy Hatcher pushing Bruce or Stubbs in different directions though.
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  7. #96
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Major league average in CF is .261/.330/.412/.741

    If Stubbs can do that, the Reds will be in a good position.
    For his career, Stubbs is at .245/.315/.413/.728. Many--myself included--believe that his production should only go up from here since he's still in the 'development' stage. If where he's at now is just a launching point, he might be end up well above average both offensively and defensively.

  8. #97
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Of course he needs to hit .800 (MLB average .735) he's stuck in the Bronson zone.

    "Fans want the player to be not what he inherently is but what they think he ought to be."

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    top 10 pick's IMO should be held to a little higher standard. I also think the Reds had him completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think he can SLG .480+
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #98
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    top 10 pick's IMO should be held to a little higher standard. I also think the Reds had him completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think he can SLG .480+
    Guys who make it are already beating the odds, why strap a piano on their back with further expectation barriers.

    I'd leave the barriers for the day they start to make real cash.

  10. #99
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    top 10 pick's IMO should be held to a little higher standard. I also think the Reds had him completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think he can SLG .480+
    I don't understand the use use of a "standard" here. The guy is who he is, he has the talent and potential that he has -- whether he was picked in the top 10 or in the 10th round. How we assess the amount of talent he has, at this point, should have basically nothing to do with where he was picked.

    Whether or not we're going "top 10" production from him is a completely different conversation than setting realistic expectations based on his ability.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #100
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Guys who make it are already beating the odds, why strap a piano on their back with further expectation barriers.

    I'd leave the barriers for the day they start to make real cash.
    +1

    So many first rounders never even get a cup of coffee at the major league level, and many of the ones that do only do so because they were drafted in the first round. The only question I ask in determining whether the player was a bust or not was whether he earned his paycheck. I wouldn't yet say Stubbs has earned his two million dollar signing bonus, but he's well on his way. A center fielder with a .700 OPS and gold glove defense could easily earn a contract that pays him at least one million dollars per season, and the Reds will have paid him less than four million dollars by the time he's arbitration eligible. If you don't believe me, Willy Taveras makes more than that in just one season.

  12. #101
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    If he can OPS .715 while playing his customary GG caliber defense, I'll be thrilled with him...

    ...

    as long as he's batting 7th or lower.
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  13. #102
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    How likely is it that he'll really start to produce as a 26, 27, 28, 29 year old? I'd say very.
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  14. #103
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    I like Stubbs a lot and always have, but I think he'll have to do better than .715 b/c if he does no better than that, he's going to have an awfully low OBP--because I don't think he's going to have any trouble with a .420 SLG. (a very conservative figure)

  15. #104
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Guys who make it are already beating the odds, why strap a piano on their back with further expectation barriers.

    I'd leave the barriers for the day they start to make real cash.
    I've followed him pretty closely. The Reds have completely misidentified his skillset. They see the blazing speed, and the ability to lay off bad pitches and thought leadoff hitter. Never mind the fact that he couldn't do anything with the pitches in the zone. And that was in the minor leagues. But one little glimmer was that he could hit for power when lower in the lineup. Why? who knows. He's comfortable there. In 83 AB's as the leadoff hitter this year, he has a .265 SLG. That's a little beyond a slump. For whatever reason he isn't getting the job done there.

    Now looking at him physically, tall guy, long arms. Lanky, but super fast. His MLB career started at age 24, which is a little later than Eric Davis, but he reminds me a lot of Davis in some ways. If the Reds would stop looking at his speed as his primary tool, and look at his power instead, he could be a special player. Maybe better than Jay Bruce. Defensively, though they play different positions, and Bruce is a near elite defender, no one would suggest he's better than Stubbs relative to position. On the bases, Stubbs certainly has more speed. So if he starts to use that power, the way he always should have been developed to do, then he might be one of the best CF's in the game.

    I don't understand How a team can be so patient with a Joey Votto through the minors, making sure he was best prepared to hit MLB pitching while finding the right position for him, fail to do the same thing with a top 10 pick. He was rushed through three levels of the minor leagues without ever coming close to dominating the pitching in the first two levels. He followed that with an abysmal performance in the AFL, and a completely forgettable stint in AAA before getting promoted again.

    This isn't a critique of Stubbs the player as much as it is an indictment of the Reds poor handling of him. Physically, he has all the tools. Mentally, i think he's not sure what kind of player the Reds want him to be. And you can bet, if Cabrera went down tomorrow, the next day Stubbs would be in the leadoff spot with Dusty and the Reds coaches trying to get him to take to many hittable pitches, and go back to trying to be a slap hitter. He's more Eric Davis than Pete Rose.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #105
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Uncle

    He reminds me a bit of another wiry miscast leadoff hitter who hit .268/.304/.432 as a 25 year old rookie after a not terribly impressive AAA stint. Of course, that guy has done his best work batting leadoff, despite not being a good fit for it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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