# Thread: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

APRIL

3. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Often the thud you hear as the Reds' record smacks into their pythag waits till late May. With the toughness of the competition Cards/Mets/Cards on the near horizon, the season may be more clearly over (record-wise) quite a bit earlier this season.

Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?

4. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?
Assuming he plays. He's been riding the pine for most of the season as Pagan has taken over the everyday CF job.

5. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Originally Posted by NJReds
Assuming he plays. He's been riding the pine for most of the season as Pagan has taken over the everyday CF job.
Nothing--nothing--untracks a hitter like Reds' pitching. Pitching underhanded and tees are less effective.

6. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

An interesting twist on the ol' Pythag.

To predict the winning percentage of a team, one new model simply uses a little addition, subtraction, and multiplication. It starts with the total runs scored by the team in all its games (Rs), and subtracts the runs it allows (Ra), and then multiplies it by a number called "beta" (B) which is chosen to produce the best results. For the 1969-2003 seasons, the optimal values of B range from 0.00053 to 0.00078, with an average of 0.00065.

Adding 0.5 to the result gives the predicted winning percentage of the team. The resulting formula looks like this:

The estimated winning percentage, P = 0.5 + B*(Rs-Ra)

7. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Nothing--nothing--untracks a hitter like Reds' pitching. Pitching underhanded and tees are less effective.
The Pirates and the Cardinals think the same thing. :

8. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

I believe this bodes well for our Redlegs.

April
12-11 (.522) RS: 106 RA: 126 (-20)

May
9-5 (.643) RS: 71 RA: 52 (+19)

Great defense. Aggressive baserunning. Good pitching. Clutch hitting. I'm liking this brand of baseball.

9. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

May continues the upward trend.

18-9 RS: 158 RA: 103 (+55)

This team is simply clicking.

10. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Best run differential for the month of May thus far.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/month/may

11. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Pythag has us a 29-21 right now if I can do math right. Pretty much right in line with where we are.

12. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Often the thud you hear as the Reds' record smacks into their pythag waits till late May. With the toughness of the competition Cards/Mets/Cards on the near horizon, the season may be more clearly over (record-wise) quite a bit earlier this season.

Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?
FCB? . . . . FCB? . . . . are you in here?

I heard a loud thud just now, but I think it was your usually dower outlook hitting the floor, not anything having to do with the best record in the NL Reds.

13. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Originally Posted by red-in-la
FCB? . . . . FCB? . . . . are you in here?

I heard a loud thud just now, but I think it was your usually dower outlook hitting the floor, not anything having to do with the best record in the NL Reds.
Aas the Cards hitting goes south, the Reds run differential goes north, FCB seams to disappear from the board. As usual.

14. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

It's gonna be time for a new graph!

15. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Anyone know where the FCB Pytag quote is? Wasn't it something like "they'll be back to Earth by June?"

16. ## Re: Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
Anyone know where the FCB Pytag quote is? Wasn't it something like "they'll be back to Earth by June?"
Um, quoted three posts above yours?

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