Maybe he was more aggressive due to the promotion. Could have been a spurt of luck. Whatever it was, he isn't doing it now.Originally Posted by dougdirt
I'm not in favor of him hitting 8th. I think its potentially a waste of his tools. 6th works for me. But IMO he gets another month to turn it around. If he can't, find someone that will hit.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
I've never been a big fan of the BABIP stat. It assumes all balls in play are created equal. Some balls are long flyouts and some guys go through stretches where the ball never leaves the infield. I'd expect a line drive hitter like Votto to have a higher BABIP than a guy like Stubbs or Nix who are challenged to make "good contact".
If you dive a little deeper, you will see that Stubbs has a terrible 13% LD rate, but for a guy that hits 50% of his batted balls on the ground, he should have a much higher BABIP, and it will be higher at year end.
Unfortunately, that .250 BABIP is exactly in line 12.9% line drive rate. Sure we could add 20 or 30 points to that expectation due to his speed, but he's just not making enough solid contact -- which goes right back to the contact issue.
I agree with you on his ceiling Doug, but the guy has got to do something about his approach & swing. He's just not hitting. He's starting 0-1 67% of the time and it's hard to hit well when you're behind behind in the count so often.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Yes, the stat does have more meaning when you combine it with the LD% stat. Stubbs BABIP doesn't seem so bad with a 13% LD rate. But I've seen some who say the LD% is based on luck too as in "this guy's LD % is off the chart...that can't continue." I'm a believer that we do make our own luck to certain extent
With normal luck based on league averages for each type of batted ball, I have Stubbs at .221/.304/.329/.633. This is only adding singles, and doesn't factor in the fact that his H/GB rate should be much higher than league average.
However, I don't think this is a straight case of poor luck like I did with Jay Bruce last year and early this year, as there are obviously still major contact issues here, but I don't think it would be nearly as bad as it has been if Stubbs can get a few balls to fall.
I agree with everything you said here. His line drive rate sucks and I hate watching him take pitches he should be swinging at. But the main issue is that with the amount of grounders he hits, he probably should have a few more singles than he does. Even if it is just 3 hits, all singles, it boosts his OPS 61 points. Something needs to change with his approach and I think it starts with getting him out of the leadoff spot. I have been saying that for years now.
Aren't there advanced BABIP formulas that account for different types of batted balls?
If you incorporate the type of batted balls into the formula, can't you come up with a BABIP formula that really does show good/bad luck?
Yes.
To expand on what Doug answered, yes, xBABIP is what your BABIP would be expected to be based on the rate in which hits fall for line drives, ground balls, fly balls, infield flies and bunts.
The formula I use just takes bunt hits as a static number instead of the number of bunts would be expected to go for hits, as I personally believe bunt hits are less a product of luck and more a product of the ability to put them down or run them out.
There is a more thorough formula used by Hardball Times that takes into account handedness of batter and many other factors.
But a good, quick way of estimation would be...
(.23*GB + .14*(FB-IFFB-HR) + .73*LD + BH)/(AB - HR - SO)
If you add homers back to the number of hits in the above formula, you can compare that to the actual number of hits the player has to get an idea of how many more (or less) they have than maybe they would be expected to have.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Mes had had a few staunch defenders other than Doug, myself included. On Stubbs I have always waffled because one could never seem to figure just exactly what his issue was/is. Mes hadn't ever been given the chance to "catch up" so to speak. Stubbs was held back in an instance or 2 and still couldn't get it right. I think Stubbs is so difficult to figure out because it's possible it's a combination of things, bat control (due in large part to mechanics), bat speed etc. being the main suspects.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
An indictment of both the Reds development process and coaching staff.
he's got Richie Sexson's body (tall, lanky) and Juan Pierre's speed. his body is confused.
If someone could just convince him the BB's will come once he starts leaving dents in the OF wall, he could be fine.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Hunter Pence seems to do pretty well with the Stubbs body type. So does (did) Alfonso Soriano.
Tall, lanky and fast can be a very productive combo. Stubbs just needs to get the hand-eye coordination right.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"That pitcher just needs to find his control." Famous last words.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
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