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Thread: Reds stats through 30 games

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    Reds stats through 30 games

    Reds went 6-4 to get back to .500 at 15-15. Reds are 9-8 at home and 6-7 on the road. Reds have 142 runs scored, 165 runs against. 3.5 games behind division leading Cards.

    Offense - numbers are up after 14 run outburst against Cubs. OPS is 10th in NL at .729 - with NL average OPS at .736. SLG. is .407, also tenth and above league average of .405. OBP is .318, 13th in NL. BA .253, 11th in NL.

    Some good individual stats. Votto at .318 BA and .982 OPS. Hanigan hitting .409 with 1.146 OPS in non-everyday role. Gomes, with only 79 official at bats, leads team in RBIs with 18.

    Pitching - 5.36 team ERA is 14th in NL, OPS against is .786, 13th in league with league average OPS against at .736. Starting pitcher ERA is 15th in the league at 5.63. Relief ERA is 5.18, 14th in NL.

    Bailey ERA above 7, Harang and Arroyo above 6, Cueto above 5 runs per game. Some of these are coming down, but still results in high team ERA. Leake at 2.94 ERA. Rhodes with outstanding start to season, .75 ERA with 1 run and 4 hits allowed in 12 innings with 13 Ks.

    Fielding - Team DER now dead last in the NL. Yet, traditional fielding stats are good with 15 errors, tied for second best in league, and FPCT of .987 tied for third best in league. Opposite of last year when DER was very good and traditional stats lagged. Reds have made 24 DPs, eleventh most in league.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-09-2010 at 09:08 AM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Where are you getting your DER numbers?

    Baseball Propsectus has them better than LAD, MIL, HOU, CHN and PIT.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Among players with at least 50 PAs, Ryan Hanigan leads MLB in OBI%. He's come to the plate with runners on base 25 times. 34.2% of the time, he's converted at least one of them into a run.
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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Where are you getting your DER numbers?

    Baseball Propsectus has them better than LAD, MIL, HOU, CHN and PIT.
    Reds official website, sortable team stats, shows Reds last in NL in DER. .6773 is the number. Hope it's wrong, hate to see the Reds with such a low defensive rating.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-09-2010 at 10:00 AM.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds official website, sortable team stats, shows Reds last in NL in DER. .6773 is the number. Hope it's wrong, hate to see the Reds with such a low defensive rating.
    Interesting, so it does.

    MLB.com: 1-((H-HR)/(PA-HR-BB-HBP-SO))

    BP: 1-((H+ROE-HR)/(PA-HR-BB-HBP-SO))

    It looks like BP is factoring in errors whereas MLB.com is not, so MLB.com's figures are higher across the board.

    We were at .705 DER last year; we're currently at .670. For UZR, Fangraphs has us at -3.8 UZR, 10th in the NL. Last year we finished at +52.9, just behind the Giants and way, way ahead of #3 Pirates (27.4).

    Regardless of what advanced defensive metric you prefer, the Reds have stunk defensively. The starters have definitely not been good, but they aren't getting any help.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-09-2010 at 10:18 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    That 30th game did a lot to help their RA/RS issues.

    Happily.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Two other team stats worth noting.

    The Reds have a 4-0 record in extra inning games -- best in MLB. And they have a 7-4 record in one-run games -- better than every franchise except the Nationals, who are currently sporting a 7-3 record in one-run games.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Interesting, so it does.

    MLB.com: 1-((H-HR)/(PA-HR-BB-HBP-SO))

    BP: 1-((H+ROE-HR)/(PA-HR-BB-HBP-SO))

    It looks like BP is factoring in errors whereas MLB.com is not, so MLB.com's figures are higher across the board.

    We were at .705 DER last year; we're currently at .670. For UZR, Fangraphs has us at -3.8 UZR, 10th in the NL. Last year we finished at +52.9, just behind the Giants and way, way ahead of #3 Pirates (27.4).

    Regardless of what advanced defensive metric you prefer, the Reds have stunk defensively. The starters have definitely not been good, but they aren't getting any help.
    As long as Cabrera plays nearly every inning of every game at SS, the Reds DER, and all defensive stats are going to be average at best.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Seems that the Reds are below avg in almost every stat and way below avg in starting pitching which is a pretty important phase of the game. So how are the Reds above 500? I'd say they've been very fortunate to win so many close games. Those one run and extra inning games could have gone either way but the Reds have managed to win more than their share.

    I like seeing such spunk and character but I doubt that'll get them by over 162 games. Very simply they'll have to play better if they hope to finish over .500

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Seems that the Reds are below avg in almost every stat and way below avg in starting pitching which is a pretty important phase of the game. So how are the Reds above 500? I'd say they've been very fortunate to win so many close games. Those one run and extra inning games could have gone either way but the Reds have managed to win more than their share.

    I like seeing such spunk and character but I doubt that'll get them by over 162 games. Very simply they'll have to play better if they hope to finish over .500
    In runs scored, the Reds are above league average, better than the Cardinals in fact.

    The problem lies front and center on the pitching and the surprisingly poor defense. The bullpen has been considerably better, but the starting pitching is still an inconsistent mess. Demote Bailey to the pen and bring up Maloney. That won't solve the problem, but it might buy the Reds five starts or so.

    Teams trending in the right direction right now RA/RS-wise: Cincinnati, Milwaukee

    Teams not: Houston, Pittsburgh, Chicago

    Teams stable: St. Louis
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-10-2010 at 09:31 AM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post

    The problem lies front and center on the pitching and the surprisingly poor defense. The bullpen has been considerably better, but the starting pitching is still an inconsistent mess. Demote Bailey to the pen and bring up Maloney. That won't solve the problem, but it might buy the Reds five starts or so.
    Maloney has had blister problems and I'm not sure he is currently in a position to help the big club. I believe he had similar problems last year as well.

    I agree that the starting pitching is the big problem.

    I don't think the defense is as big a problem as indicated in your post. LF and SS have defensive issues, but Cabrera is an offensive upgrade who has helped spark the team lately. Gomes had a terrific series against the Cubs and is among the team leaders in RBIs, even as a part time player.

    The team doesn't make a lot of errors. They just have range issues at a couple of positions. You can't have everything unless you are willing to pay for two-way players in their prime, which the Reds haven't been.

    I just think the team needs to stay the course. There are some very young players who will take their lumps. Bailey and Stubbs currently. You can't give up on these players so soon.

    Look at Bruce, he seems to be coming around after perhaps a year of issues at the plate. It just takes time.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-10-2010 at 09:34 AM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Maloney has had blister problems and I'm not sure he is currently in a position to help the big club. I believe he had similar problems last year as well.

    I agree that the starting pitching is the big problem.

    I don't think the defense is as big a problem as indicated in your post. LF and SS have defensive issues, but Cabrera is an offensive upgrade who has helped spark the team lately. Gomes had a terrific series against the Cubs and is among the team leaders in RBIs, even as a backup.

    The team doesn't make a lot of errors. They just have range issues at a couple of positions. You can't have everything unless you are willing to pay for two-way players in their prime, which the Reds haven't been.

    I just think the team needs to stay the course. There are some very young players who will take their lumps. Bailey and Stubbs currently. You can't give up on these players so soon.

    Look at Bruce, he seems to be coming around after perhaps a year of issues at the plate. It just takes time.

    I'm not sure the Reds have much of a choice but to stay the course. However, the Reds could send a message by demoting Bailey (honestly, who cares about his confidence anymore?). That they can do.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Fielding - Team DER now dead last in the NL. Yet, traditional fielding stats are good with 15 errors, tied for second best in league, and FPCT of .987 tied for third best in league. Opposite of last year when DER was very good and traditional stats lagged. Reds have made 24 DPs, eleventh most in league.
    IMO, DER tells a lot more about your defense than counting errors (especially with the lack of any consistency in official scoring).
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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'm not sure the Reds have much of a choice but to stay the course. However, the Reds could send a message by demoting Bailey (honestly, who cares about his confidence anymore?). That they can do.
    I don't know what message it sends to Bailey to put him in the pen.

    To me, the problem with Bailey is similar to the problem Harang had earlier this season. These guys have good fastballs, they need to use them primarily, not to mess around with secondary pitches too much. Bailey should be throwing mostly fastballs, located in good spots.

    I prefer the approach of telling Bailey that his position is safe. He won't be replaced unless things fall apart completely. Let him relax a bit. I would also tell him to stick with his best pitch as much as possible.

    But really, he's still very young. He showed last year what he can do. It's tough for us fans, but we need to be patient.

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    Re: Reds stats through 30 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I don't know what message it sends to Bailey to put him in the pen.

    To me, the problem with Bailey is similar to the problem Harang had earlier this season. These guys have good fastballs, they need to use them primarily, not to mess around with secondary pitches too much. Bailey should be throwing mostly fastballs, located in good spots.

    I prefer the approach of telling Bailey that his position is safe. He won't be replaced unless things fall apart completely. Let him relax a bit. I would also tell him to stick with his best pitch as much as possible.

    But really, he's still very young. He showed last year what he can do. It's tough for us fans, but we need to be patient.

    I think the message is: quit squatting and dumping on the team.

    Only loser franchises let guys like Bailey continue to screw up an improving picture. Seriously, name a respectable franchise who would allow Bailey to continue to do what he's doing.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-10-2010 at 09:44 AM.


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