Bailey to the pen is a good idea.
Bailey to the pen is a good idea.
Too much is being made about Homer IMO. He's had 3 average starts, 2 below average starts (that turned below average late in the game) and one bad start. He's notoriously a slow starter for the year. Maybe due to the colder weather, who knows. But he's not been as bad as some make him out to be. It just is more apparent after this last stinker IMO. I also agree that he's trying to rely on his off speed pitches too much. But is that due to him shaking off the catcher, or is it what the catcher/dugout is calling?
And Bailey to the pen is a pretty bad idea IMO. If you watch just about any start of Homer's you'll notice that he tends to struggle early and then get stronger as the game progresses. That's not a formula for success in the pen. He's not a rapid starter. I think we leave him where he is and simply work with the kid. It's way too early to be making snap judgements on a 23 year old (or is he 24 now?). If he had options, I could see us sending him down, but he doesn't due to the Reds screwing up his development...but we did it, so we have to live with that mistake and let him work it out with the big club. Let him take his lumps.
Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 05-10-2010 at 10:03 AM.
I just recall, for example, the Braves going with young pitchers like Glavine who struggled in the beginning.Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
I know that's a long time ago. Today it's different, guys make a lot of money and there is an expectation of more immediate success.
Still, if the idea is to build with youth, you need to give that youth a full shot. Homer just turned 24, having committed to him for this long I would keep trotting him out there.
If they do put him in the pen, it should be a short term event just to take the pressure off and let him pitch some middle innings stints. But personally I would keep him in the rotation awhile longer.
RUN SCORING
The Reds are 10th in wOBA (.323) just behind the Cardinals (.326). The Brewers are leading the NL at .361.
RUN PREVENTION
The Reds come in at 12th in FIP (4.35) sandwiched between the Braves (4.15) and Brewers (4.50.) The Cardinals lead the NL (3.36.) xFIP says about the same thing ranking-wise but gives the Reds a (4.19) number.
In terms of defense, UZR ranks the Reds as tied for the middle with the Marlins at -3.8. The Cubs (-0.8) are just ahead and the Giants (19.0) lead the league in this catgeory. UZR/150 has them almost identical but the Marlins edge out the Reds by a bit.
So far this year, Homer's OPS against by inning:
1 - .916
2 - .850
3 - .683
4 - 1.061
5 - .580
6 - 1.402
Not sure about the stronger thing.
Well, I wasn't just referring to this year but his career in general. And those poor starts, I'm sure they've inflated those numbers too. But we're only talking 6 starts (IIRC) so any kind of poor inning is going to inflate those numbers pretty drastically, don't you think? I'd say small sample size warning...but since I haven't looked up his career stats in this regard I can't. I was just going by watching him visually.
Believe me, I know the Reds will stick with him this year no matter how bad he gets. That's what they do.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Have a look.
The starting pitching has been a little better lately. Here are the last 13 starts made by Reds starting pitchers:
6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 8 K
6 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K
7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K
6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K
5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K
6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K
6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
7 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K
6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K
4 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 5 BB, 3 K
6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K
7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K
80 IP, 79 H, 36 ER, 23 BB, 74 K, 4.05 ERA
Aside from the awful start by Homer Bailey on Friday night, the starting pitcher has been about where we expected it to be in the last 13 games. Hopefully it continues. Bailey really needs to get it going though. If he can just post a 4.50ish ERA it would be a huge boost.
his stuff and lack of pitch efficiency screams bullpen. If he ever learns to really command his fastball they could always put him back in the rotation in the future.
Looking at the whole staff:
Solid improvements across the board, but that hit rate is still a problem. It should be south of 9.0 given our defensive talent -- they just haven't played up to their abilities so far. If the pitchers keep it up and the defense steps up, we're an above average run prevention team moving forward.Code:IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP First 18 games 161.1 9.9 7.4 4.8 1.3 6.14 5.02 Last 13 games 118.0 9.4 8.4 2.9 0.9 4.12 3.60
Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-10-2010 at 07:01 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Bailey to the pen could happen when Chapman is ready or when Volquez come back.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised (if the Reds are in it) to see both Bailey and Chapman in the pen in September.
Could be but I expect to see Volquez return as a member of the bullpen if he returns at all this year. It'd be nice if Travis Wood could contribute as a starter this summer
I'm dealthy afraid of Volquez coming back and forgetting where the strikezone is later in the season.
Good point on him though, it'd probably be best for him to come out of the pen. Ideally, Homer starts pitching better and allows Volquez and Chapman to come out of the pen later in the year. I'm not going to hold my breath, though.
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