Sunday May 9th Minor League Updates

[Mario-Rijo]

As always fans jumping off the bandwagon too early. Look he wasn't my 1st selection at that point I liked both Beckham and Smoak better and I am not saying that in hindsight, I just did. That said when dealing with prospects you really have to take everything into consideration. Did I think he'd be struggling like he is in AA at this point, no not all. But I also didn't know he'd break his hamate bone when he did either. I suppose you might "hear" that special sound if he was still regaining his strength. And as Doug has often pointed out despite his lack of success hitting LHP he is still getting on base at a near 33% clip which is pretty solid considering. So let's not write it in stone that he never will hit them, as a matter of fact I think he will. I really see no need to write him off just yet, though I still believe there were better selections to be made as always where the Reds are concerned. When thinking of Alonso just be wary of the tale of Devin Mesoraco, guys don't move forward at a speed that we deem reasonable they are on their own schedule.

If Alonso doesn't start to show some signs of a resurgence in pop later in the season I might begin to be concerned but even then I won't write him off. If he is still having major problems at this point next year then the flags start popping up for me but until then it's meaningless chatter in my mind.

[nemesis]

See there in lies the problem. Alonso and his Agent insisted on the Major League Contract. That put Alonso on a definitive time table. Unlike Mez who had 5 years in the minors and gets 3 more on the roster. He has 8 years to get it right. Alonso needs to be in the Majors by June or July next year. He has to progress in some way and some fashion this year. Yes I know he broke his Hamate bone and that saps power yada yada... It doesn't change the fact that he has to stick on this roster Opening Day 2012. He gets on base at a 33% clip vs LH's? Great. Franchise players destroy pitching not just get by at a marginal rate. I bet I could find 100 other prospects who get on at a 33% rate who aren't 1st round picks who are on ML contracts. He needs to hit for Average and at least high end doubles power between now and July or you have to move him. Maybe Toronto would be interested in moving Wells eatting half his contract and Snider for Alonso, Stubbs, Valiquette and Bailey?

[HokieRed]

Just a few interesting numbers. Alonso's OBP vs. LH now .348. vs. RH=.398; .387 overall despite struggling, learning a new position, injury this year, recovery from hamate injury last year. OBP .423 so far in May, OPS over .900. Last year, Alonso put up .880 in the FSL (where Votto, a year younger, put up .754 for the year).
Gordon Beckham update: .193/.305/.257/.562.

[camisadelgolf]

See there in lies the problem. Alonso and his Agent insisted on the Major League Contract. That put Alonso on a definitive time table. Unlike Mez who had 5 years in the minors and gets 3 more on the roster. He has 8 years to get it right. Alonso needs to be in the Majors by June or July next year. He has to progress in some way and some fashion this year. Yes I know he broke his Hamate bone and that saps power yada yada... It doesn't change the fact that he has to stick on this roster Opening Day 2012. He gets on base at a 33% clip vs LH's? Great. Franchise players destroy pitching not just get by at a marginal rate. I bet I could find 100 other prospects who get on at a 33% rate who aren't 1st round picks who are on ML contracts. He needs to hit for Average and at least high end doubles power between now and July or you have to move him. Maybe Toronto would be interested in moving Wells eatting half his contract and Snider for Alonso, Stubbs, Valiquette and Bailey?

Your post is pretty far off imo. The fact that Alonso signed a major league contract means that he needs to be ready to stay on the Reds' 25-man roster by 2013 since he's eligible for four options and didn't use his first one until last year. In other words, he has until the age of 26 to get it right.

On the other hand, Devin Mesoraco has until about the same age to get it right. By 2014, he will have run out of options and spent a total of seven years in the system. I'm not really sure what your point is. If your point is that Mesoraco needs less time to develop than Alonso, I think this entire forum will laugh at you.

[HokieRed]

Hard to believe Yonder Alonso couldn't be on the roster right now if that were necessary. Our 23, 24, 25 th. men are probably Janish, Cairo, and Fisher. Is there really one of those we'd keep before Alonso if we needed to in order not to lose Alonso?

[nemesis]

Your post is pretty far off imo. The fact that Alonso signed a major league contract means that he needs to be ready to stay on the Reds' 25-man roster by 2013 since he's eligible for four options and didn't use his first one until last year. In other words, he has until the age of 26 to get it right.

On the other hand, Devin Mesoraco has until about the same age to get it right. By 2014, he will have run out of options and spent a total of seven years in the system. I'm not really sure what your point is. If your point is that Mesoraco needs less time to develop than Alonso, I think this entire forum will laugh at you.

How did you get that from my post? Far from what I was saying. I thought he had used his third option this year. I guess that short stint in High A after he signed in 2008 didn't count as an option?

What I am saying is people keep calling him a franchise player and he has yet to do anything offensively to prove that.

The ML Contract forces the clubs hand at a quicker rate than if he hadn't demanded one. Like Mez who gets 8 years to try and get it right vs 4 for Alonso. Most players don't get put on the 40 Man until they are at AA or even AAA. Starting the have to clock then. Alonso doesn't have that luxury. Contracts like his handicaps a player if something happens to stunt his development say like a hamate injury. What happens if he doesn't develop into a stud prospect? He is untradible. A light hitting First Basemen with an average glove isn't a hot commodity in MLB.

Any team he is dealt to is working on the same timetable the Reds are. If the deal is right, I'd move him without hesitation. His numbers (BA, HR's, R's) so far don't scream franchise.

If he was on a minor league contract it wouldn't be such an issue he isn't hitting. He'd have until 2015 to sort out issues. What if he gets hurt again? I'd love to be wrong but unless he gets his OPS to a .950ish range and playing a decent LF in AA I don't see him sticking with this club.

[GOYA]

Alonso on the roster right now would be a detriment. At least Janish and Cairo can play SS and 3B respectively. The one thing the Reds don't need now is another 1B.

[camisadelgolf]

How did you get that from my post? Far from what I was saying. I thought he had used his third option this year. I guess that short stint in High A after he signed in 2008 didn't count as an option?

What I am saying is people keep calling him a franchise player and he has yet to do anything offensively to prove that.

The ML Contract forces the clubs hand at a quicker rate than if he hadn't demanded one. Like Mez who gets 8 years to try and get it right vs 4 for Alonso. Most players don't get put on the 40 Man until they are at AA or even AAA. Starting the have to clock then. Alonso doesn't have that luxury. Contracts like his handicaps a player if something happens to stunt his development say like a hamate injury. What happens if he doesn't develop into a stud prospect? He is untradible. A light hitting First Basemen with an average glove isn't a hot commodity in MLB.

Any team he is dealt to is working on the same timetable the Reds are. If the deal is right, I'd move him without hesitation. His numbers (BA, HR's, R's) so far don't scream franchise.

If he was on a minor league contract it wouldn't be such an issue he isn't hitting. He'd have until 2015 to sort out issues. What if he gets hurt again? I'd love to be wrong but unless he gets his OPS to a .950ish range and playing a decent LF in AA I don't see him sticking with this club.

To answer your question, he didn't use an option in 2008 because his optional assignment didn't last long enough (his season was nearly over by the time he signed). In total, the major league contract cost Alonso one year of development time, and it's highly doubtful that year will be needed anyway. He has 4+ years in the minors to figure things out, and he's already got an .807 OPS in AA. I think he'll be fine.

Devin Mesoraco doesn't get eight years in the minors--he gets 6+ years. Had he signed a few days earlier than he did, he would be eligible for one more year, but unfortunately, the waiting results in needing protection from the rule five draft one year earlier.

Regardless, Mesoraco was 19 when he signed, and Alonso was 21 when he signed. Overall, it balances out the same in that they have to be ready to stay with the Reds' 25-man roster at the same age. The big differences are that, when drafted, Mesoraco was more raw and fresh out of high school while Alonso was more polished and coming out of a major university.

[HokieRed]

Alonso on the roster right now would be a detriment. At least Janish and Cairo can play SS and 3B respectively. The one thing the Reds don't need now is another 1B.

So if you knew you were going to lose Alonso, you'd keep Miguel Cairo rather than put him [Alonso] on the roster?

[GOYA]

So if you knew you were going to lose Alonso, you'd keep Miguel Cairo rather than put him [Alonso] on the roster?

No, I wouldn't be so foolish as to be in the position of losing Alonso. But more importantly, it isn't necessary to have him on the roster now. It's a moot point.

[HokieRed]

No, I wouldn't be so foolish as to be in the position of losing Alonso. But more importantly, it isn't necessary to have him on the roster now. It's a moot point.

Well it was only my point in the original post that to start worrying about whether Alonso can make the roster in 2012 doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Mario-Rijo]

How did you get that from my post? Far from what I was saying. I thought he had used his third option this year. I guess that short stint in High A after he signed in 2008 didn't count as an option?

What I am saying is people keep calling him a franchise player and he has yet to do anything offensively to prove that.

The ML Contract forces the clubs hand at a quicker rate than if he hadn't demanded one. Like Mez who gets 8 years to try and get it right vs 4 for Alonso. Most players don't get put on the 40 Man until they are at AA or even AAA. Starting the have to clock then. Alonso doesn't have that luxury. Contracts like his handicaps a player if something happens to stunt his development say like a hamate injury. What happens if he doesn't develop into a stud prospect? He is untradible. A light hitting First Basemen with an average glove isn't a hot commodity in MLB.

Any team he is dealt to is working on the same timetable the Reds are. If the deal is right, I'd move him without hesitation. His numbers (BA, HR's, R's) so far don't scream franchise.

If he was on a minor league contract it wouldn't be such an issue he isn't hitting. He'd have until 2015 to sort out issues. What if he gets hurt again? I'd love to be wrong but unless he gets his OPS to a .950ish range and playing a decent LF in AA I don't see him sticking with this club.

Lots of ifs, yets & so fars. Which is my point, now is not the time to make the determination. Just follow his timeline and give him a break as we should any of them when it calls for it. Lots of times we are just too rigid when it comes to production, I think we'd give Superman a hard time for not playing up to his potential in the Kryptonite League. If there is rational for allowing a lack of supreme production give them the benefit of the doubt. He has time no reason to rush it.