For reference, here are the unweighted averages of qualified OFs:
Suffice it to say that the difference is pretty small. Everybody is expected to hit these days. If you're south of .750, you better be an excellent fielder if you want job security. Even CFs need to take a few walks and have a bit of pop.Code:AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA ISO LF .284 .352 .455 .806 .354 .171 CF .276 .340 .432 .772 .342 .157 RF .279 .354 .457 .812 .355 .178
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Variance really doesn't seem significant.
That's not a fair argument. For whatever reason, you're using only qualified outfielders. My argument is that Sappelt, even with only 5 HRs per 650 PAs, would be an above-average starter in the major leagues when you factor in his defense provided the rest of his numbers stay the same. Even if you're speaking solely of offense, a .768 OPS is better than more than half the starting center fielders in MLB.
Did you know:
Of the ten center fielders with an OPS of .750 or better, only three of them play above-average defense.
Check out how huge the discrepancy is between center fielders and corner outfielders:
Code:LEFT FIELD CENTER FIELD RIGHT FIELD TM PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TM PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TM PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TEX Josh Hamilton .362 .409 .636 1044 173 STL Colby Rasmus .274 .355 .516 .871 132 TOR Jose Bautista .260 .372 .596 .968 161 LAD Manny Ramirez .317 .409 .516 .925 152 NYM Angel Pagan .313 .375 .485 .860 131 TEX Nelson Cruz .324 .380 .590 .970 154 MIN Delmon Young .335 .367 .551 .919 145 LAA Torii Hunter .285 .368 .484 .852 128 NYY Nick Swish .300 .373 .541 .914 147 STL Matt Holliday .300 .376 .528 .904 141 TOR Vernon Wells .275 .326 .519 .846 128 MIL Corey Hart .288 .346 .565 .910 143 WAS Josh Willingham .266 .390 .462 .852 129 CHW Alexis Rios .300 .349 .488 .837 120 PHI Jayson Werth .297 .390 .529 .919 142 TB Carl Crawford .309 .362 .495 .856 128 CHC Marlon Byrd .315 .376 .471 .848 119 CLE Shin-Soo Choo .293 .391 .479 .870 141 COL Seth Smith .283 .342 .534 .876 123 PIT Andrew McCutchen .291 .363 .435 .798 116 LAD Andre Ethier .294 .356 .508 .864 134 DET Brennan Boesch .291 .354 .490 .844 123 LA Matt Kemp .259 .316 .452 .768 108 ATL Jason Heyward .270 .384 .456 .840 127 ATL Eric Hinske .271 .342 .486 .827 121 DET Austin Jackson .306 .354 .418 .772 106 DET Magglio Ordonez .303 .378 .474 .852 126 CHC Alfonso Soriano .265 .329 .531 .860 119 ARI Chris Young .269 .336 .462 .798 104 KC David DeJesus .318 .384 .443 .827 125 SF Pat Burrell .273 .362 .471 .833 118 NYY Curtis Granderson .246 .312 .427 .739 100 BAL Nick Markakis .293 .377 .439 .816 120 NYY Brett Gardner .295 .395 .397 .791 118 BAL Adam Jones .272 .306 .434 .740 98 STL Ryan Ludwick .281 .343 .484 .827 120 TOR Fred Lewis .280 .342 .456 .798 117 KC Mitch Maier .263 .338 .388 .726 98 CHW Carlos Quentin .237 .337 .493 .830 118 CLE Austin Kearns .272 .354 .419 .772 114 PHI Shane Victorino .250 .311 .438 .749 97 ARI Justin Upton .282 .368 .478 .846 117 MIL Ryan Braun .274 .328 .459. 787 112 FLO Cody Ross .274 .327 .415 .742 96 BOS J.D. Drew .267 .356 .460 .815 114 PHI Raul Ibanez .266 .352 .431 .782 107 MIN Denard Span .276 .348 .363 .711 93 MIN Michael Cuddyer .276 .343 .434 .777 109 SEA Michael Saunders .243 .316 .441 .757 106 BOS Mike Cameron .259 .328 .401 .729 92 FLA Mike Stanton .235 .309 .481 .791 107 KC Scott Podsednik .310 .353 .400 .753 105 OAK Rajai Davis .278 .320 .387 .707 92 LAA Bobby Abreu .254 .350 .417 .767 106 CIN Jonny Gomes .268 .320 .449 .769 103 COL Dexter Fowler .239 .351 .387 .738 91 SEA Ichiro Suzuki .307 .359 .384 .743 105 NYM Jason Bay .259 .347 .402 .749 102 TB B.J. Upton .226 .314 .390 .704 89 HOU Hunter Pence .275 .321 .447 .758 105 SD Scott Hairston .235 .316 .390 .706 100 CLE Trevor Crowe .259 .317 .359 .677 88 TB Ben Zobrist .272 .371 .384 .755 104 BAL Corey Patterson .273 .325 .411 .737 98 SEA Franklin Gutierrez .244 .317 .366 .683 88 SD Will Venable .229 .320 .400 .720 104 LAA Juan Rivera .257 .309 .427 .736 96 SF Aaron Rowand .252 .302 .405 .707 85 COL Brad Hawpe .258 .342 .449 .791 103 PIT Lastings Milledge .272 .334 .382 .716 95 CIN Drew Stubbs .229 .297 .391 .688 82 WAS Roger Bernadina .274 .329 .425 .754 102 FLA Chris Coghlan .268 .335 .383 .718 91 SD Tony Gwynn .215 .319 .305 .623 79 OAK Ryan Sweeney .294 .342 .383 .725 98 HOU Carlos Lee .238 .282 .394 .676 80 WAS Nyjer Morgan .264 .323 .326 .649 76 CIN Jay Bruce .259 .326 .417 .743 97 OAK Eric Patterson .204 .255 .408 .662 77 HOU Michael Bourn .249 .325 .324 .648 76 CHC Kosuke Fukudome .249 .355 .403 .759 97 ARI Gerardo Parra .251 .297 .367 .664 71 TEX Julio Borbon .271 .303 .353 .656 74 SF Nate Schierholtz .245 .313 .367 .680 79 CHW Juan Pierre .264 .336 .296 .633 71 MIL Carlos Gomez .228 .280 .350 .630 70 NYM Jeff Francoeur .236 .288 .370 .658 77 BOS Jeremy Hermida .203 .257 .348 .605 58 ATL Nate McClouth .168 .279 .265 .544 49 PIT Ryan Church .182 .240 .312 .552 49 Overall averages: LEFT FIELD AL .274 .339 .431 .770 NL .266 .334 .434 .767 CENTER FIELD AL .265 .326 .409 .735 NL .260 .329 .407 .736 RIGHT FIELD AL .279 .356 .445 .801 NL .265 .335 .450 .785
I would disagree with that I think a majority of the time projections about ceilings can be pretty dead on. Yes things can change (both ways, see C. Heisey) but I feel pretty confident in my assessments on certain guys and Sappelt is one of them. I will miss on some guys but for every guy I miss I find my initial gut thoughts are spot on quite a bit more. Sappelt will make the bigs, no doubt about it in my mind but to me he is alot like Wily Taveras only not as big, fast (maybe close here) or polished. And that is saying something because Wily could use some polish himself.
I should add that doesn't mean Sappelt can't fix those issues and improve his stock but I think it's safe to say he isn't gonna be Ryan Howard and to be frank he isn't gonna be changing his ultimate ceiling much regardless, just his current one.
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 08-03-2010 at 06:43 AM.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Good stuff, camisa.
Wow, our current OF is pretty bad, offensively.
That's just my point, Mario-Rijo.
You're admitting that his ceiling can change if he improves. So the initial projection was never a true ceiling, then.
There's also a lot of room between Wily Tavares and Ryan Howard.
You're not kidding. Gomes was a positive contributor early in the season, but now that he has come back to his career norms, his horrible defense is making him a player with almost negative value.
And bringing it back to the 'ceiling' talk, even though the Reds' outfield's offensive numbers have been bad, we can at least take comfort in knowing that they're capable of much more. Stubbs and Bruce have been slumping big-time lately, but when they start to regress to their respective means, watch out--they could be putting up some huge numbers soon.
Maybe I should say I tend to ignore judgments about ceilings when they're meant to limit players, to say they can only be this good and no better. I've watched too many players exceed expectations. I've no objection whatever to judgments about players' ceilings when they are high.
My moment of hesitation in talking about guys like Stubbs and Bruce possibly putting up big numbers "soon" based on their perceived ceilings and where their numbers should be expected to fall is you're still looking at awfully young players, whether we're talking literal age, big league experience, or both. So to me, the soon is pretty relative. It could mean within a couple of weeks, it could mean May of 2011. Or one or both could fall well short of their respective ceilings and the entire prediction proves to be completely off base. I'm not saying give up on either one of them. I'm simply saying I'm a Reds fan, and by nature even in a good year I'm skeptical.
It's funny,but I remember a guy named Shawn Abner. I always found some humor in that just because at the time I realized there was a Padres or Mets (whichever, I think he spent time in both organizations) prospect named Shawn Abner I was going to school with a kid named Shawn Abner. I don't know a lot about the player's skill set or numbers in the minors, as I never bothered to look since he had such a dismal career. I want to say he was the number 1 overall pick when he was drafted though, so obviously someone thought his ceiling was plenty high. Then you look at guys like Mike Piazza, who probably wouldn't have even been drafted if Tommy Lasorda wasn't the manager of the Dodgers... or even Hanigan as has been mentioned and their ceilings weren't seen as being too high by anyone. Even if someone thought perhaps one day Hanigan, or even Piazza may possibly be a decent backup catcher in the majors, your typical backup catcher on most teams is a Henry Blanco or even Paul Bako or Corky Miller type... a guy who offers little offensively except for perhaps an occasional home run(if even that) but is a good catch and throw guy and handler of pitchers. Obviously neither description fits the career of Piazza, who was a Hall of Fame caliber hitter and very mediocre defender, or Hanigan, who's a plus defender and handler of pitchers, but a solid batting average/OBP hitter with little power. Now I'm not saying that a backup catcher should always be or even ideally be just a good defender but a weak bat. That's just usually the way most teams seem to do it, or have done it in the past.
There is a difference in a true ceiling and a players current one. Since I watched him at Dayton I thought "best case scenario a better version of Wily Taveras" or if you prefer "what Wily Taveras should be if he would quit swinging at pitchers pitches". Not sure if he is gonna be quite the base stealer that Wily can be but you get my point, I hope. Now for me that hasn't changed and can't change a whole lot, I suppose if he is Rafeal Furcal in the power department that would merit a "true" change in ceiling. But anything else would be incremental and thus not really a change in ceiling because when I say ceiling it's a neighborhood and not an exact address. He'd be in Taveras neighborhood and possibly better if he does everything right from Dayton all the way up the ladder.
Now sometimes I will use "current ceiling" and really I shouldn't because that never really changes (assuming you get an accurate scouting report on ones true talent level) but I use it due to lack of a better term. When I say that though it means "how good he can be if he doesn't change his current skillset" which some players never do. He struck me as the type who would have trouble changing his skillset, everything he does is undisciplined IMO (which is why I often liken him to Ryan Freel). Which makes his "current skillset" less than a better version of Wily Taveras and maybe even less than Wily Taveras himself. Then again I haven't seen him play since Dayton so maybe he has made some adjustments I don't know about.
I know that people don't like it when I put a label on a guy but why is it ok to only tell the good on a player? Why brush the negative under the carpet so we can all be disappointed every time a prospect comes up. Heck most don't listen to a thing I have to say about a player anyway. Sorry to those who don't like it but there are a few who appreciate it. I wish someone would have been giving a descenting view on Homer Bailey on his way up and I wouldn't have been so damn disappointed.
How many players have been a disappointment and thus thrown under the bus because the fans had been spoon fed bologna on them. Would it have made a difference if people knew ahead of time that Paul O'Neill wasn't gonna be a slugger but still a very good player? Popular opinion can drive a good player out of town and keep bad ones around and IMO RZ has a responsibility to see both sides of the coin.
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 08-03-2010 at 01:59 PM.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
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