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Thread: Reds' pitching of late

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Reds' pitching of late

    I was thinking after last night's game how it seemed the last three turns through the rotation have been mighty successful, minus one blip on the radar from Homer Bailey. I decided to look at the numbers, which incorporate the last two and a half weeks or so.

    Check it out.

    Last 3 starts by starting pitcher (dating back through April 25)

    (IP-ER-SO-BB-HR-Game Score)

    Aaron Harang

    6.2-2-9-1-0-60
    6.0-3-6-0-1-52
    6.0-2-6-1-0-53

    Totals: 18.2-7-21-2-1
    3.37 ERA / 1.87 FIP
    10.4 K/9 / 1.0 BB/9

    Bronson Arroyo

    7.0-1-2-1-1-64
    7.0-4-3-2-1-48
    6.2-2-7-3-1-58

    Totals: 20.2-7-12-6-3
    3.05 ERA / 4.70 FIP
    5.2 K/9 / 2.6 BB/9

    Johnny Cueto

    9.0-0-8-0-0-93
    6.0-3-8-2-1-52
    5.0-2-3-1-0-51

    Totals: 20.0-5-19-3-1
    2.25 ERA / 2.30 FIP
    8.6 K/9 / 1.4 BB/9

    Mike Leake

    7.0-3-6-1-1-62
    6.0-1-4-1-0-61
    7.0-1-5-2-0-66

    Totals: 20.0-5-15-4-1
    2.25 ERA / 2.85 FIP
    6.8 K/9 / 1.8 BB/9

    Homer Bailey

    4.0-7-3-5-2-22
    6.2-2-6-3-1-53
    6.0-4-8-1-1-49

    Totals: 18.2-13-17-9-4
    6.23 ERA / 5.51 FIP
    8.2 K/9 / 4.5 BB/9

    Starter totals

    98.0 IP
    37 ER (3.40 ERA)
    84 K (7.71 K/9)
    24 BB (2.20 BB/9)
    3.5 K/BB ratio
    10 HRA (0.91 HR/9)
    3.45 FIP

    -------------------

    What's great to see is that of these 15 starts, essentially 14 have been of a game score of 50 or higher (there was a 48 and 49 in there, but you get the idea). That's tremendous consistency.

    Even more amazing is that the 3.40 ERA is almost exactly aligned with the FIP (3.45) meaning the strikeout, walk and home run ratios are right in line with what you would expect during that period. There's no doubt the team won't sustain this pace, and it's a very small sample, but it's great to see signs of life.

    My concern is that the starters need to continue going deep into games to start giving the back end of the bullpen some rest. The good news, though, is that they also have been performing extremely well in this timeframe.

    Nick Masset

    9.0 IP
    3 ER
    13 K
    3 BB
    1 HR
    2.66 FIP

    Arthur Rhodes

    6.3 IP
    0 ER
    6 K
    2 BB
    0 HR
    2.20 FIP

    Francisco Cordero

    9.2 IP
    3 ER
    5 K
    5 BB
    1 HR
    4.96 FIP

    Anyhow, pretty good news. If they could keep these three fresh, and the starters continue pitching well, the Reds might continue to win games.

    I really think these are encouraging signs. The Reds may not have a true ace, but it's good to see they are doing well collectively.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #2
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    This actually points to what I was saying about Homer the other day too. Yes, he had that stinker the last time out...but the 2 before it...not too shabby.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Promising indeed, Brutus. I'm always going to be the small sample size cautioner, but I do think this staff has a level of "true talent" that places it in the upper half of the NL, if not the upper 1/3. Let's hope in continues.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #4
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Promising indeed, Brutus. I'm always going to be the small sample size cautioner, but I do think this staff has a level of "true talent" that places it in the upper half of the NL, if not the upper 1/3. Let's hope in continues.
    Agreed. It's way too small a portion to expect these numbers to continue - at least at this pace. I do think this is closer to the level of production we expected from this group before the season. I'm most encouraged by Aaron Harang if he can continue this. For him to get back to form would be a tremendous lift.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    thanks, nice work. I think another important thing for this team would be to get more games like last nights game. Not necessarily the 1 hit shut-out, which would obviously be nice, but the blow out win, where the back of the bullpen gets a few nights off consecutively.

    I also have to ask, in an effort to keep leake's innings down a bit, at what point do you (or should you) consider skipping him a start here and there around an off day? Awfully hard to do right now with the way he's pitching, but I've got to imagine it is in Walt's mind.

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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Lincoln and Herrera have each given up one run in the last month. Not bad from your 4th and 5th options out of the pen.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    I know some people thought Cueto did not really improve last year, but it's interesting to take a look at last year in light of his performances this year. While 7 starts does not a season make, the trends are headed in the right direction.

    Code:
    	IP/GS	K/9	BB/9	HR/9  	 FIP
    2008	  5.6	8.2	 3.5	 1.5	4.90
    2009	  5.7	6.9	 3.2	 1.3	4.69
    2010	  6.0	7.1	 2.6	 0.9	3.90
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    thanks, nice work. I think another important thing for this team would be to get more games like last nights game. Not necessarily the 1 hit shut-out, which would obviously be nice, but the blow out win, where the back of the bullpen gets a few nights off consecutively.

    I also have to ask, in an effort to keep leake's innings down a bit, at what point do you (or should you) consider skipping him a start here and there around an off day? Awfully hard to do right now with the way he's pitching, but I've got to imagine it is in Walt's mind.
    It's a good question. I guess I don't want to see him skipped, but if/when Edinson Volquez gets back, you have to wonder if it won't be a bad idea to let him work out of the pen for a little bit.

    I don't know how to treat that. He pitched 142 innings last year at Arizona State. He's currently on pace for 199 innings this season. If he's efficient with his pitches, I would say it's not unreasonable to jump 50 innings, but they definitely should monitor it.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    I also have to ask, in an effort to keep leake's innings down a bit, at what point do you (or should you) consider skipping him a start here and there around an off day? Awfully hard to do right now with the way he's pitching, but I've got to imagine it is in Walt's mind.
    Leake is 23 and pitched something like 165 innings last year, right? I doubt he'll average 6.7 IP/GS all year. If averages 6.5 and gets 30 starts, that's 195 IP. I guess that does imply skipping him for 2 or 3 starts, but I definitely wouldn't be going out of my way to make it happen.

    I'd play it by eye. If he starts showing Cueto-esque signs of fatigue over the summer, ease up on him and give him some time. But give that he's a relatively low-stress type of pitcher (note the many comparisons to Arroyo last start), I wouldn't slavishly adhere to an innings cap with him.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    27IP 1ER. Not a bad series for the Reds pitchers.

  12. #11
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    27IP 1ER. Not a bad series for the Reds pitchers.
    I know the sign outside the Pirates FO says "Under New Management!!", but if I'm a fan of the Pirates I'm looking to jump in front of a speeding train. Hopeless.

  13. #12
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Great post and breakdown Brutus.

    If this forum had a 'thank' feature for the post, you'd be getting one from me on that one.
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  14. #13
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    It's a good question. I guess I don't want to see him skipped, but if/when Edinson Volquez gets back, you have to wonder if it won't be a bad idea to let him work out of the pen for a little bit.

    I don't know how to treat that. He pitched 142 innings last year at Arizona State. He's currently on pace for 199 innings this season. If he's efficient with his pitches, I would say it's not unreasonable to jump 50 innings, but they definitely should monitor it.
    Didn't he also pitch quite a few innings in the AFL last year?

  15. #14
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    It's a good question. I guess I don't want to see him skipped, but if/when Edinson Volquez gets back, you have to wonder if it won't be a bad idea to let him work out of the pen for a little bit.

    I don't know how to treat that. He pitched 142 innings last year at Arizona State. He's currently on pace for 199 innings this season. If he's efficient with his pitches, I would say it's not unreasonable to jump 50 innings, but they definitely should monitor it.

    And he was sure tired at that point. He didn't look sharp in the college WS

  16. #15
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Reds' pitching of late

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    And he was sure tired at that point. He didn't look sharp in the college WS
    I thought he was injured during the CWS.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.


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