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Thread: The Helmet Tug Chronicles

  1. #1
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Jackson Hole, WY

    The Helmet Tug Chronicles

    Jonny Gomes

    In an attempt to track Jonny Gomes production I am creating the Helmet Tug Chronicles. I figure roughly 100 PA has the beginnings of a sample size and we can get into the numbers a little bit. The question what can the Reds expect from Gomes from here on out?

    100 PA

    bb% 3.1
    k% 24.7
    ld% 22.9
    babip .299
    iso .157
    O swing % 37.7
    Z swing % 73.2

    314 PA

    bb% 8.3
    k% 30.2
    ld% 19.7
    babip .309
    iso .274
    O swing % 27.8
    Z swing % 68.9

    In 1/3 of the sample size Gomes has become interesting to me. K% and BB% are down, LD% is up, BABIP is very similar, but his ISO has gone down tremendously. The only real issue I can see is with his swinging at pitches outside of the zone. A 10% jump in rate could factor heavily in the early returns on Gomes' value. Granted all of this could easily be a direct result to a slow start, and to be fair here are his numbers for the last 10 games:

    Last 10 games
    12-36 4XBH 4Runs 8RBI 9K 1BB


    So now with a little data where does the Redszone community stand on the future production on the helmet tugging Gomes? Myself I see the walk rate steadily climbing and a dramatic improvement over these numbers when I reassess after 200 PA. On a sidenote I'm not going to bring actual stats into his defense. It is still way too early for any of those numbers to mean anything, feel free to discuss though as it pertains to his overall value.
    We found your stolen Prius, it was voting for Ralph Nader.

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  3. #2
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Springfield, Ohio

    Re: The Helmet Tug Chronicles

    I think the longer he's around the more sliders outside he is gonna see. Cold hard truth that well is bound to dry up at some point.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  4. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Toronto, ON

    Re: The Helmet Tug Chronicles

    This looks like a fairly clear story to me. His swing rate is up against pitches both in and out of the zone. As a result, he's making more contact (on a per PA basis) but not driving the ball quite as well (line drives can and do fall for singles quite often). Because more of the balls he's hitting are staying in play, the increased contact rate is not resulting in a higher average. Combined with the decrease in walks, he's getting on base less often.

    	  GB	 FB	HR/FB
    2009 	34%	46%	  22%
    2008	21%	55%	   8%
    Career	29%	52%	  15%
    Interestingly, his FB rate is up big time, but his HR/FB rate is down big time. Some of this clearly could be random variance, but I think a possible explanation is that he's getting more loft across the board. Some grounders are becoming line drives. Some line drives are becoming fly balls. And some fly balls are becoming pop flies.

    This reminds me a lot of what happened to Dunn when he tried to shorten up his stroke and make more contact. He made more contact, but it was worse quality contact and walks it cost him hurt more than the extra balls in play (instead of strikeouts) helped him.

    Again, this could be reading tea leaves, but there seems to be a coherent story here based on an attempt to cut down on strikeouts and be less of an "all or nothing" type of guy. I'd be curious if there's any knowledge of whether or not he is trying to hit differently or not.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #4
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Dec 2008

    Re: The Helmet Tug Chronicles

    I root more for Johnny then I do for most of the other regulars but mainly because the team needs offensive production from him so badly,especially considering his defense and I have my doubts he can consistently provide it.That and the fact that he tries so darn hard.

    My hope is that he does well enough not to hurt the team,the team does well and then replaces him with a far more useful left fielder at the trade deadline.Sorry Johnny,I like you but that's just the way I feel.

  6. #5
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    May 2006
    Jackson Hole, WY

    Re: The Helmet Tug Chronicles

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'd be curious if there's any knowledge of whether or not he is trying to hit differently or not.
    I will cosign on that. There has to be something off when his LD% has climbed, BABIP maintained, and overall numbers declined. Its probably more of a sample size issue, if anything. I'm looking forward to the next 100 PA. Gomes has become one of my favorite Reds this season (mostly for the helmet tugging which I was notorious for in between pitches).
    We found your stolen Prius, it was voting for Ralph Nader.

  7. #6
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Bedford, KY

    Re: The Helmet Tug Chronicles

    For his career, Gomes has always had both a solid BB rate (9.6%) and an excellent HR rate (4.7%). He's well below those averages now. As the season warms up, so should Gomes.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

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