Updated MLBPipeline farm system rankings for 2022
Updated MLBPipeline farm system rankings for 2022
Benihana (08-23-2022),cumberlandreds (08-23-2022),HammerTime (08-23-2022),marcshoe (08-23-2022),NebraskaRed (08-23-2022),RedTeamGo! (08-23-2022)
Looks like recent trades by the Padres and Mariners have really taken a hit on their farm systems
Reds farm is younger than Dodgers, Guardians, and Orioles. Barring multiple promotions by next August im guessing the Reds will have the #1 farm system. Also considering that currently Cleveland and Los Angeles are playoff teams and Baltimore has a 94.6% chance to pick 17th in the next draft. Meanwhile the Reds have a higher than 95% chance of picking 8th or better.
757690 (08-23-2022),Gallen5862 (08-25-2022)
That's an erudite point.
Of the Reds' top prospects, only Williamson and Steer are sure bets to be in Cincinnati next season. Red brass could well hold off on promoting nearly all of the AA prospects until 2024. They could well keep most in Louisville for the entirety of the season citing a variety of relatively honest issues. De La Cruz (youth and inexperience), McLain (BA), Encarnacion-Strand (defense), Boyle (control), Stoudt (production), Abbott (location/ control concerns, stuff), and Phillips (youth and control) could all be sandbagged a bit, thereby allowing Cincinnati a possible extra year of control and valuable spots on the 40-man roster.
Only McGarry, Chuckie Robinson, TJ Hopkins, and perhaps Rey from the AA group might be pushed due to age. And it's not like any of those guys are sure things (or even considered great prospects).
Realistically, by the end of next season, Williamson and Steer will undoubtedly be Reds. Who else would be considered a favorite the end up as a Red before Opening Day 2024? De La Cruz? McLain?
I think that may be it...
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 08-23-2022 at 03:27 PM.
Redhook (08-23-2022)
MLB lists McClain and Cruz ETAs as 2023. I don't think McClain moving up would make that big of a difference but Cruz should vault into the top 10, likely the top 5, so him moving up would definitely effect where the Reds farm is ranked. Personally I don't see any of the top 5 moving up until 2024, though Cruz has the potential to force his way.
I think we'll definitely see Encarnacion-Strand in Cincinnati next year, probably by the All Star break. There will be plenty of ABs available at 1B and DH
"....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421
sdwagers (08-24-2022)
If Collier does what some seem to think he’ll do and De La Cruz and Marte remain on their current trajectories, it’s hard to believe many teams would have a better top 3 in 2023. As far as graduations are concerned, Williamson, Stoudt, and Steer seem like the likeliest candidates. Ecarnacion-Strand and McClain have an outside shot. With a reasonably good draft, the farm will probably be top 2 or 3 in a year.
By opening day 2024 I could see a case for Elly, McLain, Marte, CES, and Siani being on the roster. I could see all of those guys in Cincy in 2023 except for Marte. A lot will depend on FA signings and trades as well as some IF getting moved to the OF and of course minor league production. It's possible some of the SP like Stout and Boyle could be moved to the pen and make the team that way. There could be a few fast movers as well. I think Logan Tanner has a chance to get fast tracked for his defense as a catcher.
A look at the Top Dozen HR leaders in the Reds system seems encouraging. Seems like a much better power output than most seasons.
Encarnacion-Strand 29
De La Cruz 28
McGarry 27
Cerda 24
Steer 23
Marte 19
Hendrick 19
Hopkins 18
Gilliam 16
McLain 15
Arroyo 14 (19yo)
Torres 12
Power has been a focus of the Red front office since the Hinds/ Hendrick draft. Many of the lesser prospect guys are now in AA and AAA and if anything, have improved their prospect status. Those at the very top have gone the other way. (Though to be fair, both Hinds and Hendrick are young enough to figure it out. They still have a couple of seasons of shelf life on that potential.)
Some observations:
- The power at the very top-- Encarnacion-Strand and De La Cruz-- would seem to be augmented by hit tools. That augers well for both prospects. That's where I'd love the focus of the entire system to be. Then again, of course that's where the focus should be. Hit the ball hard and often is a pretty good plan for anyone at any time.
- Lots of the top guys here weren't really all that highly thought of as amateurs. Might, then, be a good spot to add power, as opposed to the very top of the draft process.
- There's an interesting split here betwen those with high hit tools and those with good plate approaches. (And very few with both.) Patience is key, seemingly, for a rather large contingent of Red prospects who hit the ball with authority but too often don't hit what they swing at. We'll see if that plate approach can continue to negate hit tool questions. I suspect they'll have to prove it year after year. Old man skills early in a career might get you to the major leagues, but there's a fine line there somewhere.
- I do wonder if Reds' development coaches are teaching kids to sell out for whatever power they might possess. That'd explain McLain moving from a 60 hit tool to his current form. If so, I'm not a fan.
- The surprises to me are the guys not on the list. Mat Nelson was supposed to be a 60 power guy, and he's struggled pretty much the entire season. Michel Triana was supposed to have big-time pop-- that hasn't materialized much. Castro was released, and Marrero continues to look like a part-time minor league lifer. Confidan and Hinds have been hurt, so they get passes. Lots of guys who might be on next season's list.
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 08-28-2022 at 08:55 AM.
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