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Thread: Cliff Lee

  1. #556
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    From Jon Morosi:

    I have spoken with two scouts who say Juan Francisco, not Yonder Alonso, would be the #Reds' best bat to offer for #CliffLee. #Mariners

    http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

    I'd give up both Alonso and Francisco in a deal for Cliff Lee...
    Yes....and take your pick on a minor league pitcher not named Joseph, Chapman or Volquez.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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  3. #557
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think in conversations like this, people grossly underestimate the possibility that you get ZERO from a prospect. There is a BIG amount of uncertainty in the eventual production from those guys. Sure, the mean expected production is greater than that which Lee would provide, but strength loves certainty, weakness loves risk. 88 win teams are exactly the type who should be picking up a few wins in trade during the season.

    Cyclone nailed a big point here. Value is relative. Alonso in particular is not likely to ever produce value on the field for the Reds. His value to the Reds is tied up in his trade value. I'm often the first one to bring up theoretical notions of value, but at some point that value has to be recognized. Now is the time to do convert some of that potential value in to realized value at a time when that value can be leveraged to the hilt.
    Great point Rick. There was an article in the New York Post about not trading prospects for Lee. Lance McAllister posted some excerpts on his blog about it but here is what I thought was important.

    http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardba...4K2sd2wlGyGlKM

    2. “I would never trade that prospect for Lee.” There is so much wrong with statements like this, including that most of the people who make that statement have never even seen the minor leaguer play. There are many wonderful elements about the statistical revolution and what is available on the internet. But among the bad things is that it has made too many people feel that they know prospects who they do not really know at all.

    There are too many folks who would not trade a Jesus Montero or a Wilmer Flores based on, at best, anecdotal or secondhand information.

    I understand why prospects have become more valued than ever in the game. A strong feeder system is the best way to have cost containment. Also, with sterner drug testing older players have become a more risky proposition. Still, I think prospects have become over-valued. Teams are unwilling to discuss too many players in their system. They are still prospects, not sure things, while Lee is as sure as sure things get.

    I know that there are all kinds of Jeff Bagwell-for-Larry Andersen nightmares that bring caution to trading prospects. But there is just as many triumphs – if not more. I remember distinctly in 1995 the Yankees’ minor league heads imploring George Steinbrenner to overrule then GM Gene Michael and not include a prospect named Marty Janzen in a trade with Toronto for David Cone. The Boss sided with Michael, the Yanks obtained Cone and went to the playoffs because of it. Does anyone remember elite prospect Marty Janzen?

    Even look back at the Mets’ horrid trade of Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano in 2004. That deal still looks bad, though not as bad as it did originally because Kazmir has faded relatively quickly in his career from a very good starter to a dubious one. But the real problem in that trade is not that the Mets gave up a blue-chip prospect. It is that they gave up a blue-chip prospect for Victor Zambrano, a pitcher with talent they were hoping to fix once he arrived in New York.

    Cliff Lee is not Victor Zambrano. He is a finished product, a sure thing, tested in every forum you could think of: postseason, NL, AL, big northeastern city, etc.
    I really can't say I disagree with much of anything he said here. For a couple of years now I have thought that prospects have become way over valued. After seeing the Scott Rolen trade and the benefits that good MLB players can add to a team I am even more in favor of trading prospects for proven vets. That said there is something about Wood that I would be very hesitant to trade him.

  4. #558
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    If I can trade Francisco, Alonso and a C type prospect like Valliquette for Lee, sign me up.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  5. #559
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    If I can trade Francisco, Alonso and a C type prospect like Valliquette for Lee, sign me up.
    There's no way we are going to get away with that.

    If the Reds could do Alonso, Francisco, and Wood for Lee you do it and you do it yesterday.

    Alonso is just trade bait for the Reds at this point. He's never going to be an everyday player.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman

  6. #560
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    From Jon Morosi:

    I have spoken with two scouts who say Juan Francisco, not Yonder Alonso, would be the #Reds' best bat to offer for #CliffLee. #Mariners
    If Walt can pull that off, I am going to worship him forever.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #561
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Even if Cliff Lee turns out to be a rental, who cares? If this team lets anybody in the minors not named Chapman stand in the way of getting Cliff Lee then my head will explode.

    Redszone....I know it's been a long, long, long time since we've been able to say this but:

    "Cliff Lee makes the Reds a contender for the World Series."

    I cannot wrap my head around the fact that there are some here who are against trading for this man because of the loss of prospects.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

  8. #562
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think in conversations like this, people grossly underestimate the possibility that you get ZERO from a prospect. There is a BIG amount of uncertainty in the eventual production from those guys. Sure, the mean expected production is greater than that which Lee would provide, but strength loves certainty, weakness loves risk. 88 win teams are exactly the type who should be picking up a few wins in trade during the season.

    Cyclone nailed a big point here. Value is relative. Alonso in particular is not likely to ever produce value on the field for the Reds. His value to the Reds is tied up in his trade value. I'm often the first one to bring up theoretical notions of value, but at some point that value has to be recognized. Now is the time to do convert some of that potential value in to realized value at a time when that value can be leveraged to the hilt.
    While I can agree with the first point that you may never get zero from a prospect, its the reason why I am a little hesitant to move a guy like Wood. We have already gotten something out of him. He is as major league ready as it comes in terms of prospects. Unlike what the Twins are offering up in a guy who can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag despite tools and a kid in Low A ball, the Reds offers seem to be a guy who is absolutely 100% major league ready (Wood), a better hitter than the Twins are offering from AAA (Alonso/Francisco/Frazier) and then a third piece. Now of course this is just fans talking and we don't know what the Reds actually would be considering, but from my perspective, it seems that the Reds fans want to not only match the Twins offer but completely obliterate their offer.

  9. #563
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Haren brought Oakland some nice prospects, they'd want a few themselves:

    December 14, 2007: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Chris Carter (minors), Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith.

    Perhaps Alonso's plate discipline would appeal to the free swinging team they have now.
    I don't disagree...I think the Reds would pony up to the DBacks a package with several good prospects instead of great ones.

  10. #564
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    From Jon Morosi:

    I have spoken with two scouts who say Juan Francisco, not Yonder Alonso, would be the #Reds' best bat to offer for #CliffLee. #Mariners

    http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

    I'd give up both Alonso and Francisco in a deal for Cliff Lee...
    hopefully that's not true. i'd have no problem moving Alonso and i would give them more than that.

  11. #565
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    no matter if you think trading for Lee (for the discussed packages) is a good idea or not, isn't it fun for the Reds to be in serious discussions for the top trade deadline player on the market?

  12. #566
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Maybe I'm just cynical, but I've seen midseason deal after midsesason deal blow up in the face of the Cincinnati Reds. I honestly cannot remember the last time the team added a player who did anything remotely close to what the team needed / wanted them to do. It seems like these things always backfire for this franchise.
    In 1995, the Reds acquired Davis Wells and Dave Burba on their way to playoffs.

    In 1999, Juan Guzman went 6-3 after being acquired at the deadline from the Orioles. He moved into the number one or two spot in the rotation and improved each spot below him. Most importantly he consistently saved the bullpen by going more deeply into his starts than the fifth man in the rotation. The trio of Williamson, Sullivan, and Graves had been a major factor in the Reds' successful season but were on the verge of major blowout because of overuse. The Reds would not have made it to that one game playoff if it hadn't been for Guzman and the innings he logged.

    The Reds lost B.J. Ryan but at least the fans enjoyed an exciting run at the post season.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Now of course this is just fans talking and we don't know what the Reds actually would be considering, but from my perspective, it seems that the Reds fans want to not only match the Twins offer but completely obliterate their offer.
    I agree and am against including Travis Wood. Alonso needs to be involved in this trade but good young affordable left handers like Wood need to be kept.

    Btw, The Tampa newspaper is reporting the Rays are interested and may be dangling Upton in a three-way trade.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  13. #567
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Francisco, Alonso, Maloney, and Frazier for Lee

    Do it Walt!
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


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  14. #568
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I'm betting we will be very surprised by who the M's get for Lee, no matter which team they trade him too, and are more likely to be underwhelmed than overwhelmed. While Lee is definitely the Belle of the Ball this trading deadline, there are a few available pitchers that could help contending teams.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  15. #569
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Dan Haren has given up 138 hits in 123 innings, terrible.

    There isn't a number in the world that shows Dan Haren is even remotely in the same league as Cliff Lee right now.
    I hate to tell you, but 138 and 123 are numbers too. :
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #570
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    wouldn't trying to get Haren be a 'buy low' move vs trying to get Lee which is clearly a 'buy high'. Plus Haren would be here for 2011-2012-2013.
    Oswalt could also be had for less than Lee. One guy a bit under the radar who could be had is Greinke (owed $13.5M in 2011 & 2012). For all three of these guys their fat deals should lower the amount of talent that the Reds have to give up.

    My concern with giving up a lot for Lee is that it compromises our ability to win in 2011-2012-2013. while we may get two draft picks they won't be early ones & certainly won't be as close to the bigs as the guys we give up. I personally would rather get one of the other available starters than Lee. it would help us this year & next. Giving up top talent is a bit of an 'all in' move yet their is certainly no guarantee that the team will have post season success with him.
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