One Year Ago After 46 Games...

[membengal]

...the Reds were 26-20.

And, this year, also 26-20.

We know where it went in 2009. 26-20 was that team's high water mark. They got hit with some injuries, they held somewhat close into early July, and then were Albert Pujols'd out of GABP in a three game beat down and went into a tailspin that left them with another losing season, and a disastrous record only avoided by that charge in the last 40 games.

Here's hoping the improvements from last year to this are real, and have taken hold. On balance, the starting pitching is stronger now than it was a year ago in my estimation. Volquez was starting to slip as his injury began to manifest itself. Cueto was tired coming off of his off-season and the WBC and hit a brick wall around July 1, and Homer Bailey was still in AAA.

This year, Cueto appears to be taking a step forward, Mike Leake has been a revelation, and Homer was making small strides prior to his shutdown. In my opinion, Homer or Homer's spot is kinda key to this team holding and building on its current start. Get Homer back from the shoulder issue and throwing like he was in his last few starts ahead of getting hurt, and I like the team's chances to finish far better than my prediction of 77 wins. Failing that, some concern.

Offense, so much better this year than a year ago at this time. Rolen, Cabrera, a more adjusted Jay Bruce, Votto comfortable in his role, along with the good work from the left field platoon are generating enough rns for this team to think about being competitive.

I think the bullpen is the real soft underbelly of the team. I don't know how possible it is to find a real set-up guy from the right side, but that would be a real nice add, and soon. I hope Walt doesn't wait too long. Also, if DRH cannot straighten it out, and soon, a lefty-specialist might be a nice add.

No greater overall point to this post other than to note the records and hope that this 2010 edition of the Reds can build on this start in a way that never happened in 2009.

[RichRed]

What was the RS/RA at this point last year?

[cumberlandreds]

...the Reds were 26-20.

And, this year, also 26-20.

We know where it went in 2009. 26-20 was that team's high water mark. They got hit with some injuries, they held somewhat close into early July, and then were Albert Pujols'd out of GABP in a three game beat down and went into a tailspin that left them with another losing season, and a disastrous record only avoided by that charge in the last 40 games.

Actually the Reds won game two of that series on July 4th. But you are correct,the season sort of spun out of control after that weekend. I think the starting pitching is better than last season and the hitting is much better. We will see if that is enough to keep them in the race or not.

[membengal]

Actually the Reds won game two of that series on July 4th. But you are correct,the season sort of spun out of control after that weekend. I think the starting pitching is better than last season and the hitting is much better. We will see if that is enough to keep them in the race or not.

Friday night July 3, 7-4 Cards win.

Saturday July 4, 5-2 Reds win.

Sunday July 5, 10-1 Cards win.

They entered that series 39-38 and three games back of St. Louis.

[BRM]

What was the RS/RA at this point last year?

213 RS
199 RA

[membengal]

What was the RS/RA at this point last year?

If my quick addition from the game logs on baseball reference is correct, 213 RS 199 RA.

This year, 225 RS and 219 RA at the same juncture.

[RichRed]

Thanks, guys.

[Will M]

i agree that the bullpen is the weak spot on the roster. there is only one guy anyone trusts in the 8th or 9th. one guy. i'd like Walt to trade for a guy with 8th/9th inning experience.

[kbrake]

We need some bullpen help no doubt but after 2006 the idea has me terrified.

[RichRed]

Good thread, membengal. A couple of other things I noticed that could, I hope, point to this team being better than the 26-20 team from last year:

In April of this year, the Reds scored 106 runs and allowed 126. In May in the same number of games, they've scored 119 and allowed 93. Let's hope the May version is the real Reds.

Since the 14-7 loss to the dreaded Cubs, the Reds have lost only 5 games out of 17, and EVERY one of those losses is by 1 run.

EDIT: Sorry, OBM, I missed where you mentioned the 1-run losses in the "HUUUUUGE" thread.

[OnBaseMachine]

I think this year's team is better assuming they stay relatively healthy. Last year the Reds didn't have Scott Rolen or Mike Leake. Willy Taveras was the everyday CFer, and while Stubbs has been inconsistent this season, he's still better than Taveras and has way more upside. Johnny Cueto has admitted his arm feels fresher this season. Homer Bailey was still in the minors at this time last season. Joey Votto missed a month and Jay Bruce was struggling at the plate.

I think this team is better both offensively and in the starting pitching department, though this year's bullpen is way worse than the 2009 version. Hopefully Walt can swing a deal to upgrade the bullpen.

[RedsManRick]

Let's also remember we lost Voqluez about this time last year. He was replaced with Kip Wells, Justin Lehr, and Maloney. The rotation is certainly deeper this year with more talent ready to step up. As for the bullpen, it certainly has struggled, but I don't see it as a long term problem if Jocketty makes the appropriate moves.

One thing I'd like to see happen sooner rather than later is a willingness from Dusty to pull starters between innings instead of letting them get in to trouble first. He's so desperate to spare the bullpen, that he's pushing his starters to the edge nearly every game (save for Leake). This has resulted in fewer innings for the long relievers and higher leverage innings for the middle relievers -- coming in with men on base.

The big question in my mind remains the lineup/ run production. If we lose any of the Votto/Bruce/Rolen/Phillips quartet, we're in trouble. I have little faith that Alonso or Frazier could step up and be anything more than something between replacement level and league average.

[TheNext44]

I think this year's team is better assuming they stay relatively healthy. Last year the Reds didn't have Scott Rolen or Mike Leake. Willy Taveras was the everyday CFer, and while Stubbs has been inconsistent this season, he's still better than Taveras and has way more upside. Johnny Cueto has admitted his arm feels fresher this season. Homer Bailey was still in the minors at this time last season. Joey Votto missed a month amd Jay Bruce was struggling at the plate.

I think this team is better both offensively and in the starting pitching department, though this year's bullpen is way worse than the 2009 version. Hopefully Walt can swing a deal to upgrade the bullpen.

You hit on a some good reasons why the Reds collapsed last year after a cry similar start. Here's a more detailed account of some of the biggest reasons.


After the 26-20 start, the Reds went 8-17 over their next 25 games. Three big reasons for this collapse:

Joey Votto missed 20 of those games with his anxiety dis order. Imagine the Cards losing Pujols for 20 games.

Willie Taveras leadoff most of those games and hit this line during them: .069/.069/.069/.138

Adam Rosales played third in most of these games and hit this line durning them: .082/.175/.082/.257

So no best hitter, and two guys in the lineup nearly everyday hitting and slugging below .100. It's actually amazing they won any games at all with all of that.

So, while it's no sure thing that this years Reds will stay in first for much longer, i think it's safe to say that the odds that they will lose Votto for almost a month, and that they will have two players put up such disastrous numbers as Taveras and Rosales put up last year at this point are pretty low.

[bucksfan2]

Let's also remember we lost Voqluez about this time last year. He was replaced with Kip Wells, Justin Lehr, and Maloney. The rotation is certainly deeper this year with more talent ready to step up. As for the bullpen, it certainly has struggled, but I don't see it as a long term problem if Jocketty makes the appropriate moves.

One thing I'd like to see happen sooner rather than later is a willingness from Dusty to pull starters between innings instead of letting them get in to trouble first. He's so desperate to spare the bullpen, that he's pushing his starters to the edge nearly every game (save for Leake). This has resulted in fewer innings for the long relievers and higher leverage innings for the middle relievers -- coming in with men on base.

The big question in my mind remains the lineup/ run production. If we lose any of the Votto/Bruce/Rolen/Phillips quartet, we're in trouble. I have little faith that Alonso or Frazier could step up and be anything more than something between replacement level and league average.

Volquez was 4-2 with a 4.35 ERA last season. Not a bad start to the season, but far from the pace he set in his first year as a Red. I don't discount the fact that they lost Volquez but I also wouldn't use it as a reason for thw swoon. BTW I think Volquez may be the 2010 answer to the bullpen woes. I see no reason what so ever to start him this season. I put him in the pen to further limit his innings.

IMO the two offensive players the Reds can least afford to lose are Rolen and Votto. And I really think that Phillips offensive production may be easier to replace with Frazier that you think. Frazier has a career minor league obp of .360 which would look very nice in the 2 hole, especially in front of Votto and Rolen. I think BP may always have more power, but I would imagine Frazier is a more refined offensive player.

I think Bruce may hold the key to the Reds season. If he continues to look like a 2 hole hitter hitting in the 5 spot the Reds may be in trouble. Maybe it would behoove Dusty to move Jay into the 2 hole to get his OBP in front of Votto. I don't but the lefty lefty lineup because Votto has proven to be a pretty neutral hitter regardless of handedness. I think in order for the Reds to be successful this season Jay needs to pick up his power numbers. I keep thinking its going to come, its going to come, but it hasn't over the first quarter of the season.

As for Alonso it sure is an interesting question. What can he bring to the table in 2010. Counting on him for anything isn't a good idea but he is the type of guy who could give the Reds a major mid season boost, something they haven't seen in quite a few years.

[bucksfan2]

Willie Taveras leadoff most of those games and hit this line during them: .069/.069/.069/.138

Adam Rosales played third in most of these games and hit this line durning them: .082/.175/.082/.257

That is scary bad. If I am understanding SLG correctly WT was averaging one base every 10 at bats and Rosales a tad higher.

Its also scary that WT leadoff and had 0 walks in 20 games.

I think those numbers should be forever stricken from RZ!