Chapman is close according to Jocketty

[mth123]

Maybe. I'd rather have Chapman replacing Harang in 2011 than bring back Oldlando though. If you want to go another couple years without a GOOD shortstop that's up to you.

Trading for Oswalt doesn't stop the Reds from using Chapman in the rotation. There is nothing in this deal that stops the Reds from getting a SS. The issue will be availablity. There simply won't be any SS available that will create the upgrade that Oswalt would.

[redsfandan]

Trading for Oswalt doesn't stop the Reds from using Chapman in the rotation. There is nothing in this deal that stops the Reds from getting a SS. The issue will be availablity. There simply won't be any SS available that will create the upgrade that Oswalt would.

I'm bowing out after this but I just wanted to point out that you, I, and everyone else know that's just speculation. There's just no way to know. Unless you're middle name is Nostradamus.

[GOYA]

I think Jocketty is blowing smoke. Chapman isn't close to being ready.

His last two starts were good but short at 5.0 and 5.2 innings. The start before that he gave up 8 ER in 3.2 IP. Two starts before that he gave up 6 ER in 5.0 IP.

[Superdude]

His last two starts were good but short at 5.0 and 5.2 innings.

That's the biggest problem I see. If he pitches like he did the other day, I have no doubt that he could get major league hitters out, but with his pitch efficiency and stamina, we'd be getting some real short outings.

[George Anderson]

I think Jocketty is blowing smoke.

Why would he do that?

[BCubb2003]

I think it was just Jocketty answering the question by being positive but noncommittal, as in, Chapman's doing OK, we're not worried about him, we're not ready to set a date, etc.

[TheNext44]

I think Jocketty is blowing smoke. Chapman isn't close to being ready.

His last two starts were good but short at 5.0 and 5.2 innings. The start before that he gave up 8 ER in 3.2 IP. Two starts before that he gave up 6 ER in 5.0 IP.

Unless the Reds plan is to use Chapman in the bullpen when he first comes to the majors. I hope so, it really is the smartest thing to do. Many, many examples of TOR starters that started their MLB careers in the pen.

[mth123]

I'm bowing out after this but I just wanted to point out that you, I, and everyone else know that's just speculation. There's just no way to know. Unless you're middle name is Nostradamus.

Not really. The upgrade from Harang to Oswalt is huge. For the Reds to get a similar upgrade at SS they would need to get a top 5 guy. Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes some one along those lines.

[Benihana]

Not really. The upgrade from Harang to Oswalt is huge. For the Reds to get a similar upgrade at SS they would need to get a top 5 guy. Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes some one along those lines.

I wouldn't be shocked if Reyes is available soon.

[kpresidente]

If anyone is desperate for pitching in the next six to eight weeks and Harang draws interest, I see him being dealt and the team relying on the depth in Lousiville with LeCure, Chapman, Maloney, Wood and even Volquez & Klinker. Wouldn't shock me to see a deal including Wood or Maloney either.

Harang's xFIP is 3.84.

Leake's xFIP is 4.07.


I wouldn't be so eager to sell. We've seen how peripherals have a way of being born out over time with Volquez and Cueto's hot starts in recent years, along with the fact that Arroyo always seems to bring it together by years end.

[kpresidente]

That's the biggest problem I see. If he pitches like he did the other day, I have no doubt that he could get major league hitters out, but with his pitch efficiency and stamina, we'd be getting some real short outings.

Yep, 25 walks in 45 innings is no good. It's going to be real hard to be successful at that kind of rate, even if you have great stuff. And why push him? LeCure and Maloney seem ready now, and are (were) both pitching better at the moment in Louisville.

[mth123]

Harang's xFIP is 3.84.

Leake's xFIP is 4.07.


I wouldn't be so eager to sell. We've seen how peripherals have a way of being born out over time with Volquez and Cueto's hot starts in recent years, along with the fact that Arroyo always seems to bring it together by years end.

More proof that all these theoretical run value stats should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Harang scores well because he gets some K and is forgiven for his BABIP of .338, while Leake's BABIP of .277 works against him. Sometimes BABIP is about the quality of the pitcher and his ability to keep the other guy off balance. The difference is Leake causes poor contact while Harang gives up a bunch of ropes. If you want to look at peripherals, look at the HR/9. Harang's is .96 higher than Leake's. That's not an accident either though I'm sure that Harang's 15.3% HR/FB rate vs. Leake's 6.9% is considered luck in the calculation. IMO there should be a meatball % to explain this. Fact is that Harang these days simply throws a lot more pitches that are easy to hit which explains the BABIP and HR/FB%. Luck has little to do with it.

[buckeyenut]

Oswalt is still a top ten pitcher in NL by just about any metric. He is a veteran, a legit #1, which is the one thing this team doesn't have over the next year and a half. You have several guys with TOR upside, but no real ace.

Oswalt for Harang plus parts allows you to stabilize the rotation and gives you a whole lot of flexibility to do other things, like trade for that SS you want so bad. And if Lindstrom comes in the deal, I think he locks down your pen as well.

I would agree we need a SS more, but you have to make improvements when and where you can. And we have plenty of depth so we can always make another deal

[kpresidente]

More proof that all these theoretical run value stats should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Harang scores well because he gets some K and is forgiven for his BABIP of .338, while Leake's BABIP of .277 works against him. Sometimes BABIP is about the quality of the pitcher and his ability to keep the other guy off balance. The difference is Leake causes poor contact while Harang gives up a bunch of ropes. If you want to look at peripherals, look at the HR/9. Harang's is .96 higher than Leake's. That's not an accident either though I'm sure that Harang's 15.3% HR/FB rate vs. Leake's 6.9% is considered luck in the calculation. IMO there should be a meatball % to explain this. Fact is that Harang these days simply throws a lot more pitches that are easy to hit which explains the BABIP and HR/FB%. Luck has little to do with it.

I think you're being quite a bit too dismissive. I'm not saying Harang is th better pitcher, only that the difference isn't near what their respective ERA indicates. Their numbers are going to normalize to some degree. I don't know how much but it'll probably be significant. It happens over and over and over again.

[buckeyenut]

I wouldn't be shocked if Reyes is available soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if we made an offer for him when he is.

anyone know how Reyes is looking defensively? His offensive numbers are down, but I think he will turn those around.

Biggest issue with Reyes is that NYM has to fall out of race first.