Astros' defense ain't all that good. I would expect his ERA to be much higher than his FIP.
But yeah, you're right. He's not completely chopped liver. IIRC, he throws hard and if he's locating he can be a bare. But given the fact the Reds demolished a pitcher with a MUCH better track record just two days ago - and just about every pitcher they've seen the last couple weeks - I'll take my chances on the Reds getting to him today.
I mean hell, Miguel Cairo's probably good for a couple dingers, right?