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Thread: Bill Bray

  1. #46
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    So Ondrusek has a good 2-3 appearances and all of a sudden he is reliable and we should ignore his past?

    I guess we should ignore Ondrusek's minor league career WHIP of 1.372 and his career 4.09 ERA? In Cincy, he has a ERA+ of 55 and a WHIP of 1.816 in 15 appearances.

    Ondrusek could contribute at The Show, but to put him ahead of Herrera and Masset based on 2-3 decent appearances is shortsighted at best.

    Herrera has a career ERA+ of 119 and a WHIP of 1.483 at The Show by the way.
    Lets put it this way. I'd rather put you on the mound than Danny Rae, Masset or Del Rosario right now. So yes, at this point I'll take Ondrusek over those guys. Long term, I still think Masset is better by far, but he needs a phantom DL stint, some time off and a rehab stint where he gets in a groove in AAA. Running him out there at the major keague level is just continuing the downward spiral. Del Rosario is taking lumps and still seems to have some jitters while Ondrusek has worked his way past those. Herrera just isn't very good but he's been fooling them with his unusual stuff. Word's out and the keague has caught on to his schtick. He might be useful again, but he needs to go away for a while.

    BTW, no offense, but I hate it when people use the career minor league numbers in an analysis. What a guy did at Class A or in the Rookie league means little more than a weeding out process to get him to the high minors or to develop raw skills. What he did in the high minors over the last couple years is really all that matters as far as projecting his big league readiness IMO. Some guys play at A ball as a 19 Y/O and are overmatched and it hurts those career numbers (see Mesoraco, Devin). Others are seasoned college guys who tear up Billings (Frazier for example) which inflates those career numbers. In Ondrusek's case, he was a ham and egger on the verge of independent ball until he developed a new pitch and became a pretty good reliever in the high minors. What he did in the low minors was as a completely different pitcher (and as a starter w/o enough assortment of pitches to go through a line-up multiple times) and those numbers and the resulting impact on the career minor league line just don't matter much.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #47
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Ugh yeah he has been horrible the guy is a batting tee when he gets it in the zone. 25 hits in 17 IP amongst other poor stats. The only good thing is he has been reluctant to walk people yet his WHIP still remains high at 1.615 with an ERA over 4. I fully get the LD% is high but it's high because he isn't fooling anyone anymore IMO. Just because he has a lot of company and he is far from the worst doesn't mean he isn't bad.
    I'm just curious which other poor stats you mean other than stats which are based on the same "too many hits" issue?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #48
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yeah, his LD% is up and so his BABIP is inflated too. But even with that, he has exceptional walk and homer rates. His ERA is just over 4.00. His FIP is closer to 3.00. And yet people want to ship him out?

    I'm not pitching the guy in high leverage situations, but there's no way he belongs in AAA.
    It is my belief that you can control, to an extent, your LD%. If you are serving up meatballs right over the center of the plate. Or you aren't fooling anybody and the hitters are on to your pitches, you are going to serve up a lot of line drives. It was a fear of mine with Herrera that unless he is fooling pitchers he is pitching at batting practice speed. I would imagine that hitters during batting practice have a high LD% as well.

  5. #49
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    It is my belief that you can control, to an extent, your LD%. If you are serving up meatballs right over the center of the plate. Or you aren't fooling anybody and the hitters are on to your pitches, you are going to serve up a lot of line drives. It was a fear of mine with Herrera that unless he is fooling pitchers he is pitching at batting practice speed. I would imagine that hitters during batting practice have a high LD% as well.
    If a pitcher could control his LD rate, it would seem he could control his BABIP.

  6. #50
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    If a pitcher could control his LD rate, it would seem he could control his BABIP.
    To a certain extent they can. If your serving LD after LD all over the place your BABIP is going to be high. You directly control how good of a look and swing a hitter gets on you.

    Every time I see DRH he is getting hit hard. It is the exact opposite for Arthur Rhodes. DRH isn't fooling anyone while Rhodes is. It would make sense that DRH BABIP is higher than Rhodes.

  7. #51
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If I were managing a game tomorrow and had to get a guy out to preserve the lead and Herrera and Ondrusek were my only choices, Herrera doesn't come close to getting in the game. At this point, he isn't throwing well and just doesn't get guys out. I don't really care what they did last year or even last month.
    Here are the OBP against of the relievers:

    Code:
                                       
                         Age    IP  OBP
    CarlosFisher          27  11.0 .436
    EnerioDelRosario      24   8.2 .436
    NickMasset            28  28.0 .420
    LoganOndrusek         25  12.2 .397
    MikeLincoln           35  19.2 .394
    SamLeCure             26  24.0 .374
    MicahOwings           27  26.0 .356
    DannyHerrera*         25  17.1 .354
    FranciscoCordero      35  31.0 .336
    League Average                 .331
    ArthurRhodes*         40  28.0 .214
    Team Total                     .343
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  8. #52
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    We've had the BABIP discussion numerous times, but I'll summarize the two salient reasons of why a pitcher's BABIP can be too high:

    1) He's good enough to pitch in the majors and he's just going through bad luck
    2) He's not good enough to pitch in the majors

    The problem we have sometimes is that, once a pitcher appears in the majors, we put him in the first bin and assume the condition is permanent. But for some pitchers who are fringe-y guys anyway, they can go back and forth between good enough and not good enough depending on the current state of various factors: health, velocity, feel for their signature pitch, what have you.
    Not all who wander are lost

  9. #53
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To a certain extent they can. If your serving LD after LD all over the place your BABIP is going to be high. You directly control how good of a look and swing a hitter gets on you.

    Every time I see DRH he is getting hit hard. It is the exact opposite for Arthur Rhodes. DRH isn't fooling anyone while Rhodes is. It would make sense that DRH BABIP is higher than Rhodes.
    A pitcher absolutely has some control over LD% and as a result BABIP. There's a reason why Jimmy Haynes had a career BABIP well over .300. It wasn't bad karma that caused that

  10. #54
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Lets put it this way. I'd rather put you on the mound than Danny Rae, Masset or Del Rosario right now. So yes, at this point I'll take Ondrusek over those guys. Long term, I still think Masset is better by far, but he needs a phantom DL stint, some time off and a rehab stint where he gets in a groove in AAA. Running him out there at the major keague level is just continuing the downward spiral. Del Rosario is taking lumps and still seems to have some jitters while Ondrusek has worked his way past those. Herrera just isn't very good but he's been fooling them with his unusual stuff. Word's out and the keague has caught on to his schtick. He might be useful again, but he needs to go away for a while.

    BTW, no offense, but I hate it when people use the career minor league numbers in an analysis. What a guy did at Class A or in the Rookie league means little more than a weeding out process to get him to the high minors or to develop raw skills. What he did in the high minors over the last couple years is really all that matters as far as projecting his big league readiness IMO. Some guys play at A ball as a 19 Y/O and are overmatched and it hurts those career numbers (see Mesoraco, Devin). Others are seasoned college guys who tear up Billings (Frazier for example) which inflates those career numbers. In Ondrusek's case, he was a ham and egger on the verge of independent ball until he developed a new pitch and became a pretty good reliever in the high minors. What he did in the low minors was as a completely different pitcher (and as a starter w/o enough assortment of pitches to go through a line-up multiple times) and those numbers and the resulting impact on the career minor league line just don't matter much.
    Then why don't we look at Ondrusek's stats at the Show this year. As shown above, they've been putrid. Nothing short of it. 2-3 good appearances do not erase that. Maybe if he can put together 10 good appearances, I'll have more faith. DRH has proven a lot more at a higher level than Ondrusek has. To discount that, in my opinion, is an oversight.

  11. #55
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    A pitcher absolutely has some control over LD% and as a result BABIP. There's a reason why Jimmy Haynes had a career BABIP well over .300. It wasn't bad karma that caused that

    He was about 5% over the norm, hardly "'well over it". It could well be attribuatable to randomness, his teams fielding or park effects.

    If a pitcher has control over BABIP it's pretty marginal.

    "Absolutely" is a strong word when what you say is entirley debatable.

  12. #56
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    He was about 5% over the norm, hardly "'well over it". It could well be attribuatable to randomness, his teams fielding or park effects.

    If a pitcher has control over BABIP it's pretty marginal.

    "Absolutely" is a strong word when what you say is entirley debatable.
    OK, let's debate it. I am of the opinion that the reason Jimmy Haynes' BABIP is 30pts higher than Greg Maddux' is because players "squared" his pitches more often and not due to factors like defense or ballpark. Do you disagree?

  13. #57
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Let's get one thing straight. The BABIP and line drive stats do not, I repeat do not, show that major league pitchers don't control over the number of hits and/or line drives that they give up. All they show is that major league pitchers generally have BABIP and line drive rates that land within a certain zone.

    The fact that most MLB pitchers have BABIP and LD rates that fall within these zones can be explained in many ways. It is invalid and inaccurate to conclude that MLB pitchers have little or no control over the number of hits and line drives that they give up, from these stats. This may be the case, but one can not conclude that just from the fact that most MLB pitchers' rates fall within a certain zone.

    One very logical, and based on all the date, more likely explanation, is that in order to build up enough innings to be used in studies of BABIP and LD rates, you have to be able to control the hits and line drives that you give up at a certain skill level. So the pitchers who are used in these surveys, all have similar skill levels, or else they wouldn't be in the majors very long. Those that give up too many hits and LD, don't last long enough to have the innings needed to be included in these surveys. Their rates, which are outside this zone, are not used, because they are based on too small of a sample size to be accurate.

    There are other logical explanations for this, but what is clear, and ever the top Sabermatricians admit this, is that you can't say that we know that pitchers don't control the number of hits or line drives that they give up. At least we can't prove it using BABIP and LD stats.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  14. #58
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    We've had the BABIP discussion numerous times, but I'll summarize the two salient reasons of why a pitcher's BABIP can be too high:

    1) He's good enough to pitch in the majors and he's just going through bad luck
    2) He's not good enough to pitch in the majors

    The problem we have sometimes is that, once a pitcher appears in the majors, we put him in the first bin and assume the condition is permanent. But for some pitchers who are fringe-y guys anyway, they can go back and forth between good enough and not good enough depending on the current state of various factors: health, velocity, feel for their signature pitch, what have you.
    Very good point IR. And with relievers and the small number of innings they throw, it's all the harder to tell the difference -- especially guys forced to pitch in high leverage positions against a higher than average quality of hitter.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #59
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    Meanwhile, back to the named topic of this thread, Bill Bray pitched another scoreless inning for the Bats last night.

    In two appearances in AAA since being called up, he has allowed 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 BBs, and has 1K. Before that, for Lynchburg, in 4 appearances over 4.2 innings, he struck out 9, walked 2, and allowed no runs.

    I still can't find an answer to whether Bray's velocity is up, but he is looking good so far.
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  16. #60
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Bill Bray

    From Lance's twitter:

    Bill Bray told me he's able to cut it loose without worry now...pitching B-B games, 3 of last 4 and thought he'd been in 4 of last 7

    threw 38 pitches in an appearance...said he thinks chance to get ML hitters out is coming quickly

    said Volquez is looking fantastic and stuff is electric. said Wood looked really sharp last night

    said Tom Browing really worked with him on his delivery...which has been "violent"...and he's feeeling comfortable with it

    http://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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