I always love getting pitching in the draft. Love it. If a CFer was there who forced my hand, I'd take him. But I wouldn't look there first. I'd absolutely love a legit SS who my people thought would stay there. 2B sure. Catching, probably if there was someone we thought was worth it.
It's not so much what position I'd be looking for as much as the position I wouldn't be looking for. Unless a first baseman was there who was like a Teix type talent, I wouldn't even send my people to look at anyone at that position who wasn't able to move off of it.
Last edited by edabbs44; 06-07-2010 at 12:43 PM.
Look at the college guys taken at the top 10 of the 2007 draft, which means they had a least 2 full years in the minors.
#1 Price - 8-2 2.29 ERA
#4 Moskos - Still in minors
#5 Wieters - OPSing .644
#6 Detwiler - ERA of 5.00
#7 LaPorta - OPSing .567
#8 Weathers - Still in minors
Outside of Price, who was one of the absolute elite prospects in the last decade and the #1 overall pick, most of these guys are not doing much. And that is not to say they won't. I think Wieters will be a star. But my point is the whole notion that you draft guys from college because they are "close" is somewhat flawed and I would not skip over guys because they are further away in high school.
2006 had Longoria, Lincecum and Joba.
2008 had Posey, Smoak, Davis, Perry and a few other guys knocking on the door right now.
2009 had Leake, Strasburg, Storen with Minor killing it in AA and a potential call up this year.
And I didn't really say "college", I am saying to lean towards the closer to the majors guys. I'll take Jay Bruce over Ryan Wagner every day of the week, but I also wouldn't mind supplementing this team soon.
But when you say "take the guy who will be the best player at the end of the day and live with it" you know that's an impossibility, especially with HS guys. If it was possible then sure, I'm gonna take the perennial all-star from HS over the middle of the road college pitcher who gets there in 2011. But that doesn't happen. If the scouting consensus was that a HS 3B was going to be the next Zimmerman and they were sure of that and the choice was between him and a guy who the consensus was a college back of the rotation guy, well now that's a discussion. But when you are talking about guys all ranked 10-15, well I'd believe that the odds of one being better than the other in the long run is about 50-50.
He certainly is not the closest guy to the majors and he is a higher risk for not making the majors at all, but at the end of the day if you were asking who the guy with biggest potential impact would be, I would have him right behind Harper and Tallion
But yeah, if he were, I would probably go with the high school first baseman. Joey Votto is likely a FA by the time he is ready anyways and if Alonso is still around at that point, we have trade bait if needed.
My arm chair analysis...
This is a good year for a team picking 12th to select for need. I think the Reds are inclined to think near term and select someone likely to be able to help by 2012.
That eliminates any HS players who might be available at 12.
Pitching is an organizational strength. I don't believe they will look there first.
The Reds will not take a middle infielder who lacks plus defensive skills. I believe the Reds have a sufficient pipeline of players who fit that need.
Corner infield is set through 2012. The Reds are unlikely to spend the money required for Cox if he is going to wait until 2013 to move up. Also, they have other candidates in the minors who remain viable.
Minor league catching is looking pretty good. I don't think the Reds want another Alonso type negotiation for a catcher who might not be able to stick at the position.
To me the need is a power hitting corner OF who plays above average defense. That makes Choice the best pick. I think there is a fifty percent chance he will be available. If he is not, then Brentz is next in line.
If neither is available, then I think the Reds go back to pitching rather than take a HS OF'er. I would say McGuire third and Wimmers fourth. Either could be converted to a reliever and help in the bullpen fairly quickly.