Yasmani Grandal

[OnBaseMachine]

From John Fay:

Grandal will report to Goodyear in the next couple of days.

“He’ll spend a short time at Goodyear then move onto Billings,” Jocketty said, “then to Instructional League. We think he’ll move fast.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...g-league-deal/

[757690]

You're missing a key aspect. It actually does make a big difference.

It starts your Arb clock sooner because you're using up your options much, much faster.

Normally, the pattern for a first round pick goes something like this:

* 3-4 years in the minors, then added to the 40-man roster
* 3 years of options, going back and forth between majors & minors
* It may actually take 8 years before arbitration and 10-12 years before free agency

By adding a draft pick to the 40-man roster

* You're using up all 3 options in seasons 1, 2 & 3
* By season 4, you have to be kept in the majors. This means you're eligible for arbitration no later than the 6th season
* You're eligible, then, for free agency by the 9th season

As you can see, it's not just how quickly you make the majors but how soon you're using up your option seasons. Yes, it's true many guys would be in the majors by their 4th seasons, but you're forgetting that many players are optioned back to the minors several times during that period. Going this route, players cannot be optioned after three seasons... meaning once they're in the majors, they're there to stay if they're not being overwhelmed.

Technically, they can be optioned after season 4 in the minors (they get an extra option if signed late, after it is impossible for them to use their first option in their first year), but my point is that they usually are not.

From 2000-2005, 32 college players (I can't imagine a team giving a MLB deal to a HS, besides Harper, and even that one was crazy imo) were taken in the first round in picks 1-12 (Grandel was the 12 pick.) Only two who eventually had a major league career in which going to arbitration meant making real money, spent any time in the minors. Joe Saunders, who missed his second year with a shoulder injury, and Jeff Neimann. Saunders spent an half a season, and Neimann a full season in the minors past what would have been their last option year had they signed a MLB deal out of the draft.

I imagine Saunders is glad he didn't sign a MLB deal out of the draft, since it gave him more time to come back from an injury. I'll still count him anyway.

That is one in sixteen. A 6% chance.

That's my point. Odds are it's not going to matter, but it definitely will make things more difficult for the team you sign with, and possibly make them a weaker team, and likely hurt your development as a prospect.

It's a dumb move.

[757690]

I was just going off of what had been reported earlier. Still, that means the Reds paid Grandal as if he was the 5th best player in the draft, at least so far.

And the number of picks that received an MLB contract as well was very small...probably less than 5 players total.

Grandel reportedly almost was the 4th pick or the 5th pick but he and Royals then Indians couldn't agree on a contract before hand. He was asking for much more than $2.99M then. So it's likely he accepted less than he wanted, but got the MLB deal in return.

Unless we get inside information on how the negotiation went, we really don't know what it would have taken to get him to sign. But he clearly was considered by scouts to be a top 5 talent. He dropped to the Reds due to his contract demands.

[membengal]

Technically, they can be optioned after season 4 in the minors (they get an extra option if signed late, after it is impossible for them to use their first option in their first year), but my point is that they usually are not.

From 2000-2005, 32 college players (I can't imagine a team giving a MLB deal to a HS, besides Harper, and even that one was crazy imo) were taken in the first round in picks 1-12 (Grandel was the 12 pick.) Only two who eventually had a major league career in which going to arbitration meant making real money, spent any time in the minors. Joe Saunders, who missed his second year with a shoulder injury, and Jeff Neimann. Saunders spent an half a season, and Neimann a full season in the minors past what would have been their last option year had they signed a MLB deal out of the draft.

I imagine Saunders is glad he didn't sign a MLB deal out of the draft, since it gave him more time to come back from an injury. I'll still count him anyway.

That is one in sixteen. A 6% chance.

That's my point. Odds are it's not going to matter, but it definitely will make things more difficult for the team you sign with, and possibly make them a weaker team, and likely hurt your development as a prospect.

It's a dumb move.

Your views are of interest to me and I would be interested to know if you have a newsletter I can subscribe to.

Well stated. About where I come down.

[lollipopcurve]

I like that they're putting Grandal on a team (Billings) with a shot at postseason play. The single A teams are not in a winning environment right now. I think it's a good idea to introduce your big-ticket draft choice to pro ball by having him on with a club that's playing for a trophy.

[GIDP]

what if his thumbs get hurt

[Pony Boy]

I would be interested to hear someone with more knowledge than me of Grandal compare his hitting to Alonso coming out of Miami. If you took the fact that Grandal is a catcher out of the analyis who is drafted higher? Like, for example, if they were both first baseman would Alonso or Grandal be considered the better prospect?

[mdccclxix]

Yonder had more walks and more HR power than Grandal at Miami, but their slash lines are very similar their junior years. For instance, they both slugged over .700, both walked a lot more than they struck out, both were on base over half the time.

IIRC, their batting stances and swings are pretty similar, too.

[Pony Boy]

Yonder had more walks and more HR power than Grandal at Miami, but their slash lines are very similar their junior years. For instance, they both slugged over .700, both walked a lot more than they struck out, both were on base over half the time.

IIRC, their batting stances and swings are pretty similar, too.

Thanks, It sounds like Alonso at the same age/level was a tick better as a hitter.

I can't find any stats that show Grandal's lefty/righty splits. I am wondering if he will stick as a switch hitter.

[DBFROMNVA]

Their agent must love Jocketty. He has watched him fold like a tent and give out ML contracts twice in the last three years. It will limit flexibility if injuries hit over the next year and a half. Grandal was not going back to college with the loaded draft next year. Call his bluff.

[bounty37h]

Yes, he is known most for his defense, so he is a catcher all the way.

Really??? Not questioning you, but when I saw we drafted him, I thought it was cause of his bat, he never imprtessed me in colelg ein any form or fashion as a catcher, granted I only saw him a few games, but he seemed like that big kid who could crush in little league and he just never found a position. I am of course hoping your right, we need a good high quality catcher coming through, I just didn't think that was this guy.

[GIDP]

The scouting reports are totally mixed on the kid thats for sure. I think people who are more respected tend to say that hes not great behind the plate just yet, but hes not a butcher either.

I think the reports of him being a great defensive catcher is likely wrong because not many catchers are labled that way coming out of the draft. Once you get drafted you basically start learning everything about the position all over again because players are quicker, you call pitches, have to catch better breaking balls more often.

[OnBaseMachine]

From Jon Heyman:

hearing grandal's guarantee with #reds was $3.2 mil, not $2.9 mil. a lot of rich kids made last night.

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman

[puca]

I don't like the maor league deal for a catcher.

There is so much for a catcher to learn that 3 years seems like a rush even for an advanced college player.

[dougdirt]

I don't like the maor league deal for a catcher.

There is so much for a catcher to learn that 3 years seems like a rush even for an advanced college player.

Except he gets 4 years, so he has until the start of 2015 before he must stick.