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Thread: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

  1. #1
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    At least a little. Here are the NL ranks for the Reds by batting order:

    Batting 1st:
    Code:
    Runs Scored     42   5th
    SLG           .358   9th
    OBP           .305  14th
    OPS           .663  13th
    BA            .246  14th
    Cabrera as the leadoff hitter: .289 .328 .391 .719, So, HAS been an improvement. Then you get to the meat...

    Batting 2nd:
    Code:
    RS     45  1st
    SLG  .500  1st
    OBP  .362  3rd
    OPS  .862  1st
    BA   .312  1st
    Cabrera as the #2 hitter posted almost the same line he has as leadoff: .264 .288 .431 .719 Less OBP, a bit more pop. Phillips has blown up in the #2 hole: .313 .371 .484 .855

    Batting 3rd:
    Code:
    RS     41  4th
    SLG  .527  4th
    OBP  .406  1st (tie)
    OPS  .934  3rd
    BA   .312  2nd
    Votto is a beast. plain and simple.

    Batting 4th:
    Code:
    RS     30  12th
    SLG  .496   2nd
    OBP  .326  11th
    OPS  .822   7th
    BA   .271   8th
    Phillips was killing the Reds production in the cleanup spot: .229 .289 .398 .687. Rolen has been superman there: .307 .365 .577 .942

    Batting 5th:
    Code:
    RS     43  2nd
    SLG  .527  4th
    OBP  .394  2nd
    OPS  .921  3rd
    BA   .308  2nd
    213 of the 224 AB's in this spot have been handled by Gomes, Bruce and Rolen. All have an OPS of .944 or higher batting here.

    Batting 6th
    Code:
    RS     28   6th
    SLG  .386  11th
    OBP  .331   9th
    OPS  .717  11th
    BA   .245  13th
    Gomes now has 18 games played at this position in the lineup posting .311 .405 .623 1.028. Probably been one of the more volatile slots as Dusty has played 11 position players in that spot. Bruce was pretty bad: .216 .314 .330 .64 Hernandez had an .845 OPS in 12 AB's, but OCab's .544 OPS in 29 AB's more than negated it. Hopefully it's Gomes spot permanently now.

    Batting 7th
    Code:
    RS     35  1st
    SLG  .513  1st
    OBP  .323  9th
    OPS  .836  1st
    BA   .280  3rd
    Stubbs now has more AB's in the 7th spot in the lineup than any other Red. And boy has he responded: .327 .384 .574 .958. As goo as Gomes has been at 6th, he was equally bad hitting 7th: .205 .214 .333 .548 in 39 AB's. Nix however has been very good in this spot as well: .324 .359 .703 1.062.

    Batting 8th:
    Code:
    RS     22 11th
    SLG  .400  6th
    OBP  .390  4th
    OPS  .790  4th
    BA   .286  4th
    The Hernandez/Hanigan Show. 2nd best OPS out of the position in the NL, just behind Colorado and only because of an edge there in power. But why don't they score more?...

    Batting 9th:
    Code:
    RS     22  2nd
    SLG  .390  1st
    OBP  .282  1st
    OPS  .672  1st
    BA   .248  1st
    The best hitting pitchers in the game. period. And it isn't even close... .100 points higher in OPS. Add in the interleague numbers of Heisey, Stubbs and Rolen, and it pads the position.

    In summary, the adjustments Dusty has made, and for the most part stuck to have resulted in a team with the following overall ranks: 2nd in BA, 3rd in HR's, 4th in RBI and 4th in hits. The offense is balanced and clicking. But although Cabrera has been a huge improvement at leadoff, he's still the lagging member of the offense. Hopefully that improves as the season progresses.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #2
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    I would very much like to see this team with Hanigan at C and leading off and Janish at SS and batting 8th.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I would very much like to see this team with Hanigan at C and leading off and Janish at SS and batting 8th.
    I'll co-sign again and prepare for the coming storm.
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    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I would very much like to see this team with Hanigan at C and leading off and Janish at SS and batting 8th.
    I don't know if Hanigan would be as effective as a leadoff hitter. You get pitched to differently in the leadoff spot than you do in the #8 spot. I'm not saying he can't handle it, but I think it's a fair question to debate.
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    I would think that removing Cabrera from the lineup would hurt the chemistry that the team has going right now. It would never happen unless both he and the team go into a huge tailspin.

    Hanigan I can see a little more, I don't think Ramon is as important to the team as Cabrera has been. But I also think that Hanigan has played way over his head to this point. And Big Klu's point is extremely valid, remove his 8 hole related IBBs last year and his OBP becomes very average.

  7. #6
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    While there may be some numerical theories that go against what I'll say, but I can't believe that people want to tinker what is currently the best lineup in the national league.

    Thanks TRF for the breakdown. Interesting to say the least.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Klu View Post
    I don't know if Hanigan would be as effective as a leadoff hitter. You get pitched to differently in the leadoff spot than you do in the #8 spot. I'm not saying he can't handle it, but I think it's a fair question to debate.
    It certainly won't be settled via conversation. As a guy with a career .381 OBP, 12.7 BB% and 11.3 K%, I'd like to give him the chance to fail. He's always been a good contact hitter with a good eye. While he's no burner, he's not exactly slow. I'd definitely prefer him to Mr. 1st pitching swinging Cabrera.

    We can talk about chemistry, but how much of a downer must it be for our pitchers as balls constantly scoot through the SS-3B hole and up the middle.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Awesome post, in both the work put into and the results.

    I agree with RMR completely, but I also see the point that what the Reds have used this past month or so has worked, so why mess with success. However, if the team does go into a slump, I would like to see more Janish, and Hanigan hitting higher, even leadoff. Of course I know I never will.
    Last edited by TheNext44; 06-11-2010 at 02:45 PM.
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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    I still remember when there was talk about LaRue hitting higher in the order. Miley (I think) used him in the two spot a couple of times without much success.

    We all prefer a higher OBP in that leadoff spot, but I'm not sure Hanigan is going to give you that there. Yes, he does have a high OBP, but in the 8th spot you can expect a lot of walks, so you don't know how it translates.
    And maybe speed is overrated, but Hanigan doesn't have it...ANY. NONE. Not sure he even beats Hernandez in a footrace. Forget about first to third on a single by Phillips or Votto to right.
    Last edited by oneupper; 06-11-2010 at 02:00 PM.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    I still remember when there was talk about LaRue hitting higher in the order. Miley (I think) used him in the two spot a couple of times without much success.

    We all prefer a higher OBP in that leadoff spot, but I'm not sure Hanigan is going to give you that there. Yes, he does have a high OBP, but in the 8th spot you can expect a lot of walks, so you don't know how it translates.
    And maybe speed is overrated, but Hanigan doesn't have it...ANY. NONE. Not sure he even beats Hernandez in a footrace. Forget about first to third on a single by Phillips or Votto to right.
    We certainly won't know how his OBP translates without giving it a chance. And I guarantee you he's more likely to end up on 3B from 1B than Cabrera is to end up on 3B from the bench.

    I don't know how it would work, but I do want Janish's glove in the game and I'd much prefer Hanigan up there than Janish.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    While he's no burner, he's not exactly slow.
    I would take issue with that statement. Hanigan is very slow. The only players on the team who are slower than Hanigan are Harang and maybe Hernandez. (I don't count any of the relievers who never bat.)
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    While there may be some numerical theories that go against what I'll say, but I can't believe that people want to tinker what is currently the best lineup in the national league.

    Thanks TRF for the breakdown. Interesting to say the least.
    Could you imagine the firestorm if Dusty removed 2 starters right now and then the team goes in the tank, for whatever reason?

  14. #13
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Could you imagine the firestorm if Dusty removed 2 starters right now and then the team goes in the tank, for whatever reason?
    It's just like batting Hanigan 1st. It's impractical and honestly not even a worthy discussion, IMO.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Phillips has taken very well to the #2 spot. Votto-Rolen at #3-4 is the thumpers in the heart of the order. Jay Bruce is batting 5th or 6th with Gomes batting 6th or 5th (depending on who is pitching). the Reds 2-3-4-5-6 can be a bit of a "murder's row" for opposing pitchers. I would not mess with Stubbs at #7. Being comfortable is important & especially for a young player.

    this kinda limits options.

    here is a name for the leadoff spot: Jay Bruce.
    pushing him into the #1 spot gets him an extra AB every other game or so.
    Bruce (L)
    Phillips
    Votto (L)
    Rolen
    Gomes
    Hernandez/Hanigan
    Stubbs
    Cabrera

    the above lineup pushes the worst hitter into the #8 spot. it keeps the 2-3-4-5 intact & keeps Stubbs low in the order where he has done much better.


    just a thought.
    .

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Some offensive numbers and why leadoff is hurting the reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    It's just like batting Hanigan 1st. It's impractical and honestly not even a worthy discussion, IMO.
    "Impractical"? That's just silly. Unlikely? Unrealistic? Definitely.

    But it's quite practical to bat a high OBP, low SLG player leadoff.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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