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Thread: Chapman's last five starts.

  1. #1
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    Chapman's last five starts.

    It was encouraging to read that Aroldis Chapman was using more of his off-speed pitches tonight. The consensus is that he still has a long way to go in his development. If that is the case he is going to be a monster. But a more pertinent question should be asked. Is he is ready to be brought up or not?

    Here are the numbers from his last five starts. Judge for yourself.

    Code:
    IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K
    5.2	3	0	0	0	3	7
    5.0	3	0	0	0	1	7
    7.0	4	2	2	0	3	5
    2.0	6	7	7	1	6	1
    5.0	4	1	1	0	2	9
    
    24.2	20	10	10	1	15	29
    						
    22.2	14	3	3	0	9	28
    Four of the five starts I would consider outstanding. One clunker in there to be sure.

    There are two total lines at the bottom. The first is all five starts and the second is without the clunker.

    The first total line works out to an ERA of 3.65. Even with the bad start thrown in the numbers are solid. Less than a hit per inning pitched and a 2:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks.


    The second total line works out to a microscopic ERA of 1.19. All of the peripherals are outstanding.

    Only one ball has left the yard in his last 24 2/3 innings.

    His bad start was really, really bad no doubt. But don't the four really, really good starts make up for that? He could go a little deeper into games but I would take 5 or 6 innings of one run ball any day and all day.

    His Bill James Game Scores would work out to be 67,67,63,11,62 respectively.

    I am sure he has more developing to do. But, honestly, the pitcher that comes to the majors fully developed is the rare exception rather than the rule.

    I think he is on the cusp. If one of the starting five falters much longer, Chapman goes into the rotation IMO.
    Last edited by texasdave; 06-13-2010 at 04:43 AM. Reason: add another stat.

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Given that two starts ago he walked 6 and struck out just 1 tells me all I need to know about him being ready to be called up.... he isn't.

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    I believe Volquez will be LeCure/Bailey's replacement in the rotation with LeCure going to the 'pen, and Chapman should be Leake's replacement, once it is time to shut Leake down (sometime in August).

    Don't change Chapman's development schedule based off of what's going on in the big leagues. If we need another replacement due to injury, it should be Maloney's turn.
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    I think Volquez is Massett's replacement as the 8th inning guy right after the All Star break starting with the Rockies series. I think Leake/LeCure split time starting in August, and I think a trade is made for a starter (Lilly, Lee etc...) to fill out the rotation.

  6. #5
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I believe Volquez will be LeCure/Bailey's replacement in the rotation with LeCure going to the 'pen, and Chapman should be Leake's replacement, once it is time to shut Leake down (sometime in August).

    Don't change Chapman's development schedule based off of what's going on in the big leagues. If we need another replacement due to injury, it should be Maloney's turn.
    Like it or not, there is 0% chance Leake gets shutdown this year if the Reds are in the race.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Like it or not, there is 0% chance Leake gets shutdown this year if the Reds are in the race.
    Everything the Reds have said up to this point suggests otherwise.

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Everything the Reds have said up to this point suggests otherwise.
    I'd be willing to bet everything I own that it doesn't happen.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I believe Volquez will be LeCure/Bailey's replacement in the rotation with LeCure going to the 'pen, and Chapman should be Leake's replacement, once it is time to shut Leake down (sometime in August).

    Don't change Chapman's development schedule based off of what's going on in the big leagues. If we need another replacement due to injury, it should be Maloney's turn.
    Problem with this plan is that Chapman likely needs shut down before Leake does. Chapman's IP last year was 119 and that is his seasonal high. Anything must past 150 IP for him is too many IMO. Leake, OTOH, probably can go to 175.

    I don't trust so many spots to unproven kids (that include Bailey and Cueto). This team needs to bring somebody in.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Problem with this plan is that Chapman likely needs shut down before Leake does. Chapman's IP last year was 119 and that is his seasonal high. Anything must past 150 IP for him is too many IMO. Leake, OTOH, probably can go to 175.

    I don't trust so many spots to unproven kids (that include Bailey and Cueto). This team needs to bring somebody in.
    Agree completely that they need to bring someone in as the first item of business. Personally, I'm hoping for Lee, Haren, Peavy or Webb (likely in that order).
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    After the All Star break, three new pitchers could be on the roster. Volquez, Chapman, and Bray.

    If the Reds acquire another pitcher, that's four new pitchers.

    I don't know who exactly would be replaced. Harang could go in a trade. Del Rosario, Ondrusek, Herrera could go down. LeCure could go down, although he is pitching quite well. Leake could be shut down, but I doubt it. My guess is Leake will just get additional rest and throw fewer innings.

    I'm pretty confident that the Reds will have new pitchers after the break. I think it's very unclear who will depart.

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    If we're shutting down Leake, I don't see why he can't go to the DL in July and part of August, so he can pitch down the home stretch at the end of August and in September, and hopefully October.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    If we're shutting down Leake, I don't see why he can't go to the DL in July and part of August, so he can pitch down the home stretch at the end of August and in September, and hopefully October.
    Because you can't just DL a guy because you want to. There has to be an actual reason.

  14. #13
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I'd be willing to bet everything I own that it doesn't happen.
    What color is your couch? I want to make sure it goes with the rest of my living room before taking that bet.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because you can't just DL a guy because you want to. There has to be an actual reason.
    Phantom DL trip.

  16. #15
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    Re: Chapman's last five starts.

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Phantom DL trip.
    Unless there is something remotely close to it, it won't happen. The players union will throw a fit over it (see the Mets and their current situation).


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