Draft Impression

[redsof72]

Impossible to know which players will live up to or exceed expectations and which players will not, and really a waste of time to try to say that certain specific players should or should not have been taken, but two philosophical imprints on this draft that hit you like a pair of 10 foot poles:

1) The Reds drafted a ton of guys from quality college programs, in contrast to recent seasons that have featured numerous picks from Division II and III or NAIA programs. I really like this. We have seen far too many minor leaguers over the last couple of years that struggled mightily with basic elements of the game (catching fly balls, throwing to the cut-off man, understanding how to run the bases, defending double steals, etc.). They seem to have decided to start drafting players who have played in some pressure games against good competition. If nothing else, regardless of how many of these players make it, they improve the quality of baseball in your farm system and help your prospects develop in a more professional game environment.

2) This year, the Reds drafted players based more on baseball ability than tools, as evidenced by the long list of players with highly impressive statistics at the Division I college level. Many of the same points can be made from this as stated in the paragraph above. I think they got a little tired of bringing in guys who were supposed to have some "tool" but turned out to be guys who simply couldn't play or who might have had one tool but were so terribly weak in another area that they were useless as prospects.

I am really happy about this change. Again, you are surrounding your prospects with a higher quality of baseball. The records of the farm clubs will be better. That is critical. The number of 9th inning blunders (and blown games) because guys had no baseball instincts or ability to perform in hostile situations should drop dramatically.

I can say with some confidence that the managers and coaches of the farm clubs will be very pleased with this approach.

[icehole3]

I agree 1000%, Ive always wanted them to concentrate on pitching in the draft and if not pitching focus on speedy CFs or SSs or power hitters and it looks like they went the speedy route

[redsfandan]

Taking a catcher in the 1st round is risky, taking a catcher in the 1st round twice in 4 years?

It just seems like they made a risky pick with Grandal and then proceeded to make their next few picks safe picks. That just seems a little backwards to me.

And I'm not saying that I think making a "safe pick" is bad, affordable picks aren't necessarily bad either, and athletic players are good too, but where's the power? They used their first 4 picks on position players but, right now, it seems like those 4 could have a ceiling of average, or below average, power for their position.

Am I wrong?

[PuffyPig]

Grandal was rumoured to go as high as 4th and was nothing of a reach.

I'm not sure why this would be characterized as a "risky" move.

[redsfandan]

Grandal was rumoured to go as high as 4th and was nothing of a reach.

I'm not sure why this would be characterized as a "risky" move.

Simply, because he's a catcher.

A lot more has to go right with the development of a catcher than, for example, an outfielder.

[icehole3]

theyre all risks, it does seem the Reds have shown patience recently to allow these guys to develop

[redsmetz]

Simply, because he's a catcher.

A lot more has to go right with the development of a catcher than, for example, an outfielder.

The fact is that there are a minimum of 60 catchers in the major leagues year in and year out. They have to come from somewhere. The Miami Herald quoted Buckley about the pick. "It's such a hard position to find," Buckley said. "There's so few everyday catchers across the minor leagues, or even in the major leagues, that we just didn't think we could pass on him."

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/0...top-draft.html

[lollipopcurve]

Interesting points, 72. Ultimately, though, I'm not sure there's a real correlation between baseball instincts and what college program you come out of. However, I can see the rationale in starting to favor guys with excellent stats over guys with a few tools, to a certain extent.

I have a good feeling about this draft class, provided they get the talent signed.

[PuffyPig]

Simply, because he's a catcher.

A lot more has to go right with the development of a catcher than, for example, an outfielder.

Which is why not picking catchers is also risky.

There are so few catchers that if you have to get one on the open market it is very expensive.

Developing your own is the safest way to go.

[Mario-Rijo]

1st impression is another low ceiling high floor class, Buckley's forte' really. Of his drafts this one impresses me the least (even less overall upside than usual). Sure it makes our minor league teams nice and rounded, solid fundamentally, competitive etc. Well hypothetically anyway, this class is pretty much the same as the several before it (with Buckley) and they have made some impact but not quite as much as we have hoped for. Of course I guess you have to consider how poor this entire draft was to recent ones to begin with.

[kaldaniels]

I wouldn't say picking Joe Mauer was risky.

[mace]

A couple other things to consider in this strategy. In mining the Latin American countries as heavily as they currently are, the Reds are investing there in youth, tools and upside. In that respect, they're allowing the draft to complement that element with experience, production and polish (to the extent that those commodities are actually available). Also, the system has shown itself to be woefully weak in the A-AA region. Perhaps they're counting on the draftees to fortify those areas in fairly short order.

[Benihana]

I like this draft crop.

I came into this draft wanting six things:

1. A high-upside catcher. Experience shows that HS catchers in particular have an incredibly risky track record, so I preferred our catcher to come from the college ranks. Grandal is the best catcher in the draft, and one of three players (along with the Sales) that I wanted at 12 given who was available. (Check)

2. A college SS that can stay at SS. I'm not sure that Zach Cozart is the answer (he might be), and we have a lot of high-upside toolsy SS in the lower minors (Hamilton, Gregorious, Valor, etc.) so I wanted a college SS that could move quickly but stay at SS. While I didn't have my sights set on Lohman, I'll take him. (Check)

3. A power-hitting OF who can play defense. Not sure if we got this, but Waldrop looks to have serious upside. I hope we can sign him and convince him not to play football. (Incomplete)

4. A high-upside HS arm. Would have loved AJ Cole in the second round, although given his salary expectations and the Grandal pick, this was probably unrealistic. Drew Cisco is admittedly not one of the highest upside arms in the draft, but he is very polished. Given the Reds track record of developing HS arms, this is probably a good thing. Like Waldrop, I hope we can sign him, especially given that he fell farther than anyone was expecting. (Check)

5. A second round draft pick that didn't disappoint. I have to admit, I was very disappointed when we selected Boxberger over Tanner Scheppers last year. While Boxberger has been solid in high A, Scheppers has been lights out in AA, although he still carries the injury risk that scared many teams off. Although there were a couple other players available (Paxton, Cole) that I liked more than LaMarre (despite the fact that he played at my alma mater), I won't complain about this selection. While I am a bit confused as to where LaMarre fits in the system given the presence of Stubbs, Heisey, Dickerson, Sappelt, Perez, Fellhauer, and Yorman, he appears to have clearly been the BPA on the Reds' board and I can't complain about that. He strikes me as a Twins' kind of pick- similar to a Denard Span or Ben Revere, and you can't argue with their track record. (Check)

6. A quick moving reliever. Would have loved Workman or Ruffin in the second round, although they didn't fall that far. Am very glad they didn't draft either in the first round, as some had reported. Arico appears to be a guy that could fit the bill, although it is a risky proposition to rely on picks beyond the second round to do anything, let alone help the big club this year or next. (Incomplete)

All in all, Buckley and co. accomplished many of the goals that I had in mind, and especially given the Reds activity in the international game, I really don't have much to complain about with this draft. As always, only time will tell, but for now I give this draft a

[PuffyPig]

I like this draft crop.

I came into this draft wanting six things:

1. A high-upside catcher. Experience shows that HS catchers in particular have an incredibly risky track record, so I preferred our catcher to come from the college ranks. Grandal is the best catcher in the draft, and one of three players (along with the Sales) that I wanted at 12 given who was available. (Check)

2. A college SS that can stay at SS. I'm not sure that Zach Cozart is the answer (he might be), and we have a lot of high-upside toolsy SS in the lower minors (Hamilton, Gregorious, Valor, etc.) so I wanted a college SS that could move quickly but stay at SS. While I didn't have my sights set on Lohman, I'll take him. (Check)

3. A power-hitting OF who can play defense. Not sure if we got this, but Waldrop looks to have serious upside. I hope we can sign him and convince him not to play football. (Incomplete)

4. A high-upside HS arm. Would have loved AJ Cole in the second round, although given his salary expectations and the Grandal pick, this was probably unrealistic. Drew Cisco is admittedly not one of the highest upside arms in the draft, but he is very polished. Given the Reds track record of developing HS arms, this is probably a good thing. Like Waldrop, I hope we can sign him, especially given that he fell farther than anyone was expecting. (Check)

5. A second round draft pick that didn't disappoint. I have to admit, I was very disappointed when we selected Boxberger over Tanner Scheppers last year. While Boxberger has been solid in high A, Scheppers has been lights out in AA, although he still carries the injury risk that scared many teams off. Although there were a couple other players available (Paxton, Cole) that I liked more than LaMarre (despite the fact that he played at my alma mater), I won't complain about this selection. While I am a bit confused as to where LaMarre fits in the system given the presence of Stubbs, Heisey, Dickerson, Sappelt, Perez, Fellhauer, and Yorman, he appears to have clearly been the BPA on the Reds' board and I can't complain about that. He strikes me as a Twins' kind of pick- similar to a Denard Span or Ben Revere, and you can't argue with their track record. (Check)

6. A quick moving reliever. Would have loved Workman or Ruffin in the second round, although they didn't fall that far. Am very glad they didn't draft either in the first round, as some had reported. Arico appears to be a guy that could fit the bill, although it is a risky proposition to rely on picks beyond the second round to do anything, let alone help the big club this year or next. (Incomplete)

All in all, Buckley and co. accomplished many of the goals that I had in mind, and especially given the Reds activity in the international game, I really don't have much to complain about with this draft. As always, only time will tell, but for now I give this draft a

As a side note, it was likely impossible to c omplately meet your wish list, as each one basically would need to be satisfied with a early pick, and we had no supplemental picks.

[Benihana]

As a side note, it was likely impossible to c omplately meet your wish list, as each one basically would need to be satisfied with a early pick, and we had no supplemental picks.

Of course, that's why it's called a wish list. Rarely if ever do you get to meet every item on your wish list.

You could make the argument that you could fill every need even with the Reds picks, but you would need an almost unlimited draft budget. For instance:

Round 1: Yasmani Grandal (top tier college catcher)
Round 2: AJ Cole (high upside HS arm & good value for 2nd round pick)
Round 3: Devin Lohman/Josh Rutledge (college SS that can stay at SS)
Round 4: James Paxton/Bryan Morgado (reliever/polished arm that could move fast)
Round 5: Austin Wilson (high-upside power hitting OF that can play D)

Obviously, that is unrealistic given budget constraints and the fact that you can't always have everyone you want- but it is an illustration that it is theoretically possible given the Reds' picks.

Like I said though, I am not complaining about this draft at all.