The Reds are aware of the Verducci Effect, but say they don’t have a ceiling on Leake.
Yet, clearly, they are taking care of him: He’s thrown over 100 pitches only five times, and never more than 108. On five different occasions, he has received at least one extra day between starts.
One could imagine the Reds allowing Leake to go to 186 innings (an extra two starts), because of his pitch efficiency. How late in the season would “186” take him?
Sept. 10, three weeks before the end of the regular season. That would mean only 15 more starts for Leake, using his present average of 6.5 innings per start.
If he keeps up pace of averaging 15.4 pitches per inning, he’ll have thrown about 2,900 pitches by the time he hits 186 innings. That’s reasonable -- Arroyo has averaged around 3,300 to 3,400 pitches over the past three seasons.