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Thread: Opportunity to Buy Low?

  1. #1
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    Opportunity to Buy Low?

    New York Mets have been smoking hot of late and they have a couple decisions coming up with a couple pitchers. Oliver Perez and John Maine are expected to be "healthy" soon. ESPN reported that Maine has likely pitched his last pitch as a New York Met but because of money Perez will be back if he doesnt accept a minor league assignment.

    So my question would you buy low on John Maine for a fringe spect?
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Some Numbers:
    Contract: 3.3 mil (1st year of arby was this season)
    http://www.metsblog.com/2010/01/15/n...s-to-contract/
    Age: 29
    Expected to be DFA'd upon activation from the DL.
    Pitched at AA last night I believe.

    Career ERA 4.35
    Career WHIP 1.34

    Downside:
    Only made more than 25 starts once (2007)
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

    Patron to barmaid "I'm not slurring, I'm speaking in cursive"


  4. #3
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Maine makes $3.3 Million. I think he might be able to help, but if he eats up whatever money the Reds have left to acquire guys, I'd pass. If the Reds could get him for some one like a Sean Henry or a Wilkin Castillo and the Mets send along a Million bucks or so, I'd like to see it.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #4
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    I don't have any interest in Maine until his velocity returns, and seeing as how he's coming off shoulder surgery, I'm not sure that day will come any time soon.

    As for Perez, I only have interest in him as a LOOGY, and even in that case, I'm not sure he has the control to handle that role. Not only that, but he's apparently a clubhouse cancer when he's not in the rotation.

    In other words, 'no thanks' to both pitchers.

  6. #5
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Maine is somewhat intriguing but only if the Reds pick him up for next to nothing. I have zero interest in Perez for reasons already mentioned above.

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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I don't have any interest in Maine until his velocity returns, and seeing as how he's coming off shoulder surgery, I'm not sure that day will come any time soon.

    As for Perez, I only have interest in him as a LOOGY, and even in that case, I'm not sure he has the control to handle that role. Not only that, but he's apparently a clubhouse cancer when he's not in the rotation.

    In other words, 'no thanks' to both pitchers.
    Perez I wouldnt give a second look at unless the Mets took Harang and sent about 10 mil per for the length of Perez's contract. I was aiming more of Maine and use him as a caddy for Leake, Volquez, Chapman out of the pen and if he shows his velocity and everything is back slide him in when theres an injury or we need an extra day. The Mets dont seem to have any interest in waiting for him so they'd probably go as much as 2 mil just to save on the 40 man spot and the 700k they would still save.
    Last edited by Slyder; 06-19-2010 at 01:52 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

    Patron to barmaid "I'm not slurring, I'm speaking in cursive"


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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Maine and Perez are certainly no better than Harang and likely much worse.

    We should either trade for our #1 guy (a Lee or a Haren) or not at all.

  9. #8
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    what exactly is the league average ERA for a starter?

    320
    I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou

  10. #9
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Maine and Perez are certainly no better than Harang and likely much worse.

    We should either trade for our #1 guy (a Lee or a Haren) or not at all.
    Yeah, but if he could slide in for Harang and then deal Harang off for Salary relief, it would open the possibility to that #1 guy we all want. Right now I think Money is a huge obstacle and the Reds need to not only add a guy but backfill for a subtraction and I don't trust all the kids for that role (and some will be gone in the deal for a number 1).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #10
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Unless the Reds record collection is missing Led Zeppelin "Coda," it's time to stop shopping in the bargain bin.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #11
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfan320 View Post
    what exactly is the league average ERA for a starter?

    320
    as starter:
    NL = 4.13
    AL = 4.34
    MLB = 4.23

    as reliever:
    NL = 4.15
    AL = 4.07
    MLB = 4.11

    overall:
    NL = 4.12
    AL = 4.25
    MLB = 4.18

  13. #12
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    as starter:
    NL = 4.13
    AL = 4.34
    MLB = 4.23

    as reliever:
    NL = 4.15
    AL = 4.07
    MLB = 4.11

    overall:
    NL = 4.12
    AL = 4.25
    MLB = 4.18
    How does the starter average equal 4.13 and the relief average equal 4.15 while the overall equals 4.12? Seems impossible.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #13
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    How does the starter average equal 4.13 and the relief average equal 4.15 while the overall equals 4.12? Seems impossible.
    B-R has is at 4.11 and 4.14. In any event, usually the relievers are a fair bit better than starters, but league average is usually in the low to mid 4's.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #14
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Thanks for the ERA numbers. I thought I heard someone, I think it was Welsh, say on a Reds telecast that it was usually a whole point higher on average for starters than relievers.

    320
    I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Opportunity to Buy Low?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfan320 View Post
    Thanks for the ERA numbers. I thought I heard someone, I think it was Welsh, say on a Reds telecast that it was usually a whole point higher on average for starters than relievers.

    320
    If you take a starter and turn him to a reliever, yes, the numbers are something like that. But terms of current performance, there's less of a discrepency. The short version being that a lot of relievers are relievers not because they don't have the stamina to go 6 innings but because they can't pitch well enough to last 6 innings.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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