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Thread: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

  1. #1
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    This one might require seatbelts!

    Nevertheless:

    Jonny Gomes is doing his part at the plate, slugging .285/.342/.491 with a .352 wOBA in 243 plate appearances. The erstwhile Ray has contributed +4.3 runs with the bat so far, drawing the vast majority of starts in left field for the Reds. During the interleague portion of Cincinnatiís schedule, Gomes has mostly DHíd. Unfortunately, thatís not an option the rest of the year. Once you consider Gomesí lumbering defense, the Reds might be costing themselves runs by playing him over rookie Chris Heisey.
    Enjoy!
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    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    I know next to nothing about these defensive stats... what I will say is that I have seen nothing to convince me that Gomes is as horrible a defender as people (and apparently some stats) say. Certainly, he's not above average but he seems fine to me.

    320
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    Obviously the numbers they are using are borderline worthless, since those same stats state that Laynce Nix has been worth more to the team than Gomes has been to this point.

    Go Reds.

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    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    The stats seem to make it appear as though Gomes stands up from his bed when he wakes in the morning and immediately falls on his face.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

  6. #5
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    The stats seem to make it appear as though Gomes stands up from his bed when he wakes in the morning and immediately falls on his face.
    He trips over his glove.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
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  7. #6
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    I like Jonny Gomes but check out these numbers:

    April:

    60 atbats
    .217/.254/.367 - .621 OPS

    May:

    88 atbats
    .364/.420/.636 - 1.056 OPS

    June:

    66 atbats
    .242/.316/.409 - .725 OPS

    He has been very inconsistent with the bat so far.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #7
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I like Jonny Gomes but check out these numbers:

    April:

    60 atbats
    .217/.254/.367 - .621 OPS

    May:

    88 atbats
    .364/.420/.636 - 1.056 OPS

    June:

    66 atbats
    .242/.316/.409 - .725 OPS

    He has been very inconsistent with the bat so far.
    He has had a rough last 5 games, otherwise his month of June was very good.

    2-21 in his last 5, but his OPS for the month before June 18th was well over .900, it appears.

  9. #8
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    What Gomes lacks in range in the outfield he has made up in improved instincts and better defensive positioning. He is much better going toward the line than in the gap, but, Stubbs and Bruce's plus plus range and ability to cheat makes up for that. That need to be figured into the equation. He might not be getting to balls in the gap but Stubbs is most the time.

    It's funny in hindsight that I was so geared up for the Reds to go out and sign Damon if they had, this season would be nowhere as good as it has been.

    If Damon had signed... He would have been batting Second. Phillps would still be batting cleanup and having nowhere near the season he is having. Stubbs might have stayed in the leadoff position a little longer and been demoted. Rolen would be batting 5th. There certainly would have been less RBI opportunities due to all the Phillipses ahead of him. Bruce would be batting 6th or 7th with Cabrera ahead of him some nights. The lineup wouldn't have been nowhere as good without him and the Defense would have been even worse. It worked out pretty well wouldn't you say?
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  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    That argument sounds familiar. I am and have been squarely in the Heisey camp (and would include Dickerson when he gets back).
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That argument sounds familiar. I am and have been squarely in the Heisey camp (and would include Dickerson when he gets back).
    I think Dickerson is an afterthought at this point. He hasn't taken advantage of the opportunities provided to him and, for a contending team at mid-season, they'd be foolish to give him anything more than 5th OFer time.

  12. #11
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    I don't want to quote too much of the article, but this should be thrown in for the sake of fairness:
    Offensively, advantage Gomes. But itís extremely difficult to envision a scenario in which Heisey doesnít make up that eight run difference in offensive value with the leather. CHONE thinks that Heisey would actually rate as an above-average center fielder. Letís say that Heisey rates as a +10 run defender in left per 150 games and Gomes a negative 15 (which is probably generous). If each plays something like 80 more defensive games this season, Heisey would add roughly five runs in value, while Gomes would surrender about eight runs.

    Admittedly, the numbers I use are presented as a speculative exercise, but the Reds could be punting a half-win in value for the rest of 2010, perhaps more, by preferring Gomes over Heisey.
    That being said, I pretty much agree. I see Gomes as a terrible defender. I've been very unimpressed with what I've seen of his fielding, and his UZR backs that impression up. Gomes had an incredible hot streak last month, but he will hurt the team if/when he regresses and Dusty keeps him in on the basis of that hot streak.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    Even with his hot start Gomes slash against righties is a lukewarm .321/.468/.789. Combine with poor defense and little footspeed and there's every reason to not think him a fulltimer.

    I like Gomes on the team and wanted him signed. Nyx has me baffled. Even against righties he's not that good. Going into the season a Gomes/Dickerson platoon made sense. Now I'm wondering about Gomes/Danny Dorn and finding a lot PT for Heisey across the outfield.

  14. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Even with his hot start Gomes slash against righties is a lukewarm .321/.468/.789. Combine with poor defense and little footspeed and there's every reason to not think him a fulltimer.

    I like Gomes on the team and wanted him signed. Nyx has me baffled. Even against righties he's not that good. Going into the season a Gomes/Dickerson platoon made sense. Now I'm wondering about Gomes/Danny Dorn and finding a lot PT for Heisey across the outfield.
    It's been a while since I disagreed with a post as much as I do with this one, especially the bolded part.

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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    I think a Dickerson/Heisey platoon could be very interesting. I would think the value of those 2 platooning would exceed what Gomes brings on a daily basis.

    Gomes, to a degree, controls his destiny. Dickerson will not be ready for a while. If Gomes continues to hit the way he did last month, he'll stay in the lineup.

  16. #15
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    Re: Fangraphs: Gomes or Heisey in LF?

    There is not very much difference in their offensive stats to the this point. Heisey has shown good power and has not had very many opportunities to use his base stealing skills, an offensive weapon that Gomes lacks. Keep giving Heisey playing time and see if he can keep it up. I would like to see him get an occasional start in RF as well.


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