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Thread: Fay: Trade Harang

  1. #31
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Then keep him. He can always be a bullpen arm option.

    It's up to the Reds management to play the game and do what it takes to win. That costs money.

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  3. #32
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Oh, yeah...the Reds are a contender

  4. #33
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    I've been concerned w/ Aaron's poor peripherals most of the year. His velocity isn't what it used to be....and he's striking out fewer while throwing more pitches.
    I'm not sure that I've seen too many swings at pitches outside of the zone against Aaron this year. The league has caught on to him....and he certainly lacks any desire to throw inside to protect his plate.

    As a 4th or 5th starter.....he's top notch though. If the team goes to the playoffs, I'd like to see him be with the team....as he was the horse for many very very lousy Reds teams.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  5. #34
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I cannot imagine any scenario where they would trade Harang and pay his salary and get a SS of the future, as Fay suggests. Sure, they could get a player worse than Cozart...but is that a SS of the future?
    I agree with you. I was just stating what i thought the situation was with Harang. They could get a player back if they paid all money owed to him, but the player probably wouldn't be much of a help.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #35
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I think one of the few differences between Harang and Mike Leake is the HR/9 rate and $$$. I think Harang is one of the Reds 3 best pitchers. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.

    I would be all for trading Fay though!

    What about the ground ball to fly ball difference between the two. Leake has a 2.25 ground: fly ration where Harang is at 1.1. This is huge at GABP, Leake is the exact type of pitcher the Reds need. In fact Harang has the lowest Ground: fly ratio of the Reds starting pitchers

  7. #36
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by steig View Post
    What about the ground ball to fly ball difference between the two. Leake has a 2.25 ground: fly ration where Harang is at 1.1. This is huge at GABP, Leake is the exact type of pitcher the Reds need. In fact Harang has the lowest Ground: fly ratio of the Reds starting pitchers
    That would be one of the things that's a difference between them along with Harang's HR-rate (and depending on which camp you're in, they could kind of be the same thing.) BAA against is also different although some of the difference is probably explained by the HR-rate.

    Even with all that, I think they're very similar in terms of the ERA they're likely to produce over a season.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  8. #37
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    I think Harang would be a very effective pitcher in a park like LA Dodgers, SD, Seattle or Detroit. He's in a park that's horrible for his skills.

  9. #38
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    That would be one of the things that's a difference between them along with Harang's HR-rate (and depending on which camp you're in, they could kind of be the same thing.) BAA against is also different although some of the difference is probably explained by the HR-rate.

    Even with all that, I think they're very similar in terms of the ERA they're likely to produce over a season.
    We've argued this before, but I believer Leake and Harang are perfect examples of the flaw in Fip. There is more to pitching than K/BB and HR.

    Hits matter too, especially XBH, and certain pitchers like Leake and Arroyo, who have lots of movement, can suppress them better than most pitchers.

    Fip doesn't work well with Knuckleballers for this very reason. Leake and Arroyo pitch very similarly to Knuckleballers. They succeed by keeping the batter off balance and not allowing them to square up on the ball.

    I'd be willing to bet that Leake has a much lower ERA over the next three years than Harang, because of this.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  10. #39
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    I'm not sure why we're acting like Harang is in decline. The reality is he's basically the same pitcher he's been the last few years; one who is notably worse than the 2005-2007 leader of the staff (he was a #1 starter, but not an ace). Let's take a look at the data to see what's going on.

    (All this data is available for free on Fangraphs and I would recommend people head over there to take a look before making assertions about pitch velocity, movement, contact rates, etc. The best information we have available to us is there.)

    Code:
    	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	FIP	xFIP	 ERA
    2007	8.5	2.0	1.1	.298	3.71	3.75	3.73
    2008	7.5	2.4	1.7	.317	4.79	4.18	4.78
    2009	7.9	2.4	1.3	.339	4.14	3.95	4.21
    2010	6.7	2.6	1.3	.330	4.58	4.36	5.07
    - K/9 is down significantly this year.
    - FIP is in between 08 and 09
    - ERA is .49 runs higher than his FIP

    Code:
    	GB/FB	 LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	LOB%
    2007	 0.96	17.9	40.3	41.8	10.2	74.0
    2008	 0.77	21.9	34.1	44.1	13.9	73.6
    2009	 0.84	23.7	34.9	41.4	11.7	75.6
    2010	 1.01	22.8	38.8	38.4	11.9	70.0
    - All the batted ball types are pretty much in line, save for a slight increase in GB/FB
    - LOB% is down, probably in part due to his lessened K/9, but this is also a stat with a fair bit of natural variability and could also be in part due to unlucky timing

    Code:
    	O-Sw%   Z-SW%	O-Con	Z-Con	Zone%  SwStr%
    2007	26.5	70.6	54.6	86.6	55.5	10.4	
    2008	26.0	65.9	64.8	87.5	54.5	 8.5
    2009	26.2	68.6	64.2	88.1	52.1	 8.4
    2010	30.8	65.0	68.5	88.4	43.9	 8.3
    - He's actually getting more swings out of the zone and fewer in zone as he ever has
    - Contact on balls out of the zone is up from 08 and 09 and WAY up from 07
    - The rate at which players are watching pitches in the zone is WAY down (not a good sign)
    - Swinging strike rate is basically unchanged 08-10, though down from 07

    PitchFx data follows: take with a grain of salt as the classification system has been continually tweaked
    Code:
    Pitch Frequency (Fastball, Slider, Change, Curve, 2-Seam FB)
    	 FA%	SL%	 CH%	CU%	 FT%
    2007	64.0	25.7	 6.3	3.7	 0.0
    2008	66.3	20.8	 6.9	5.4	 0.0
    2009	60.7	20.3	10.8	5.1	 2.0
    2010	47.2	21.1	 8.3	6.1	17.2
    - Decrease in sliders from 07 to 08-10
    - He's started using a 2-seamer for about 1/4 of his fastballs

    Code:
    Pitch Velocity
    	FA-Vel	SL-Vel	CH-Vel	CU-Vel	FT-Vel
    2007	90.3	82.8	83.1	73.9	 	
    2008	89.4	81.6	82.4	76.8	 	
    2009	90.7	81.1	83.3	74.8	89.6	
    2010	90.7	82.3	82.0	76.2	90.3
    - Velocity is not down; if anything it's up

    Code:
    PitchFx Horizontal Movement
    	FA-X	SL-X	CH-X	CU-X	FT-X
    2007	-4.1	2.7	-3.0	3.8	 	
    2008	-4.1	3.3	-5.8	4.9	 	
    2009	-5.3	2.6	-4.9	2.6	-9.1	
    2010	-4.0	2.0	-4.2	2.8	-7.9
    - A bit of a drop in horizontal movement across the board
    - Slider shows the biggest decrease, something we've all noticed

    Code:
    PitchFx Vertical Movement
    	FA-Z	SL-Z	CH-Z	CU-Z	FT-Z
    2007	11.4	 3.7	 8.0	-0.9	 
    2008	10.7	 2.4	 7.9	-1.2	 	
    2009	10.8	 2.1	 6.9	-2.6	 6.7	
    2010	10.5	 2.6	 7.0	-2.5	 8.9
    - Not much going on here. Some drop after 2007, but holding steady since.

    IN SUMMARY:
    At the simplest level, Harang dropped a level of effectiveness from 2007 to 2008 (I wonder why.......) and has pretty much stayed at that new level. So far in 2010, his strikeout rate is noticeably down and he has lost some movement on his slider. But even then, his ERA is a bit higher than in should be, perhaps resulting from a Reds defense that regressed back from last year's stellar effort. Moving forward, we should expect more of the same -- pure mediocrity. He most definitely belongs in the rotation; we just should just recognize him for what he is -- a mid-rotation innings eater.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #40
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    We've argued this before, but I believer Leake and Harang are perfect examples of the flaw in Fip. There is more to pitching than K/BB and HR.
    I didn't mention FIP. I was looking at K, BB, HR rates and hit type individually (don't look at those if you're a Homer Bailey fan, BTW...it's not good.) I also said the difference between them is that Harang is better at the former but poorer at the latter...at least so far this year.

    My point was I think it's likely that Leake and Harang end up with similar ERA this year. So if we're pointing out flaws in stats, that's the one with the flaw.

    Hits matter too, especially XBH, and certain pitchers like Leake and Arroyo, who have lots of movement, can suppress them better than most pitchers.

    Fip doesn't work well with Knuckleballers for this very reason. Leake and Arroyo pitch very similarly to Knuckleballers. They succeed by keeping the batter off balance and not allowing them to square up on the ball.

    I'd be willing to bet that Leake has a much lower ERA over the next three years than Harang, because of this.
    Great!

    I'm talking about this year.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #41
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    IN SUMMARY:
    At the simplest level, Harang dropped a level of effectiveness from 2007 to 2008 (I wonder why.......) and has pretty much stayed at that new level. So far in 2010, his strikeout rate is noticeably down and he has lost some movement on his slider. But even then, his ERA is a bit higher than in should be, perhaps resulting from a Reds defense that regressed back from last year's stellar effort. Moving forward, we should expect more of the same -- pure mediocrity. He most definitely belongs in the rotation; we just should just recognize him for what he is -- a mid-rotation innings eater.
    Right. This is what I'm saying when he's one of the three best starters this year.

    What the Reds should do is acquire pitching that would make him the 5th best starter.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #42
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    I've always liked Harang and have always defended him but I think the time has come to explore trading him or maybe moving him to the bullpen. I don't feel comfortable at all when he's on the mound this season. His stuff has really deteriorated this season. The only pitch he can locate for strikes is his fastball, and it isn't exactly an overpowering pitch. It's a shame, for about a three year stretch Harang was arguably the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Now he's pretty much just a back end starter. He's not the worst guy to have around but if the Reds plan on making the playoffs then they need to acquire a top-of-rotation starter and maybe move Harang to the pen where possibly his stuff would play up a little better.

    I think Harang would benefit greatly if he pitched in a big ballpark. If I were him I would sign with the hometown Padres in the offseason, or the Mariners or Dodgers. A lot of those cheap home runs he allows in GABP would be routine flyouts in most west coast ballparks.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  14. #43
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    From John Fay:

    All three runs Harang allowed Friday scored on home runs. Thatís pretty typical.

    Twenty-one of the 56 runs heís allowed have come via the home run. Of the 36 runs heís allowed at GAPB, 17 have scored via home runs. Of the 20 runs heís allowed on the road, four have scored on home runs.

    Sounds like a guy who could benefit from a change in venue. My guess is if the Reds are inclined to trade him, there will be a market.
    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...aA7WC+fddIg%3D
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  15. #44
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    It's almost like Fay has an agenda- weird.
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #45
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fay: Trade Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    We've argued this before, but I believer Leake and Harang are perfect examples of the flaw in Fip. There is more to pitching than K/BB and HR.

    Hits matter too, especially XBH, and certain pitchers like Leake and Arroyo, who have lots of movement, can suppress them better than most pitchers.
    There's a common misperception about the logic behind FIP. It's not that hits don't matter. Nor is it that pitchers can't affect how hard they're hit. Rather, it's that the ability to affect how hard you're hit shows up in your HR, K, and BB rates. If you can prevent guys from squaring up the ball and hitting doubles, you are also preventing HRs and getting a fair amount of Ks when guys swing and miss. It all comes from the same underlying ability of the pitcher to fool the hitter.

    And because hit rates are also significantly affected by defense, looking at the hits can actually make it harder to judge how well a guy has actually pitched. The easy check on this is that FIP is a better predictor of ERA than is ERA itself. Obviously we should take FIP with a grain of salt, but it's hard to make an argument that ERA is a better indicator of how well a guy has pitched. ERA is a team stat.

    Fip doesn't work well with Knuckleballers for this very reason. Leake and Arroyo pitch very similarly to Knuckleballers. They succeed by keeping the batter off balance and not allowing them to square up on the ball. I'd be willing to bet that Leake has a much lower ERA over the next three years than Harang, because of this.
    What you've described is true for virtually every pitcher. Very few pitchers succeed by simply blowing hitters away with velocity. It's usually about keeping the guy off balance and not squaring up pitches through movement, location, and sequence. I agree that Leake will have an ERA lower than Harang. I also bet he'll have a lower FIP. Both will result from his having better stuff which induces grounders and keeps the ball in the yard.

    To reiterate, it's not that FIP is based on a belief that hits don't matter and/or are not affected by the pitcher. Rather, it's that the same underlying skills which drive a pitchers ability to affect hits are those which drive BB, K, and HR rates -- but those things aren't also affected by the defense. It's highly unlikely you'll find a pitcher who regularly induces poor contact but doesn't have good BB, K and/or HR rates.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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