Todd Frazier's 2010 Season

[mdccclxix]

Todd Frazier was near the top of every single prospect list Reds fans saw come out last off-season. Now, in the eyes of many fans, he's hanging by a pinky to any top 5 status he'd earned in his career while being a consistent batter and roving defensive guru.

What began in April as a "slow start" soon became a bad month, then a bad spring, and now a bad 1st half. Frazier is hitting .219 on the season, as Reds fans watch every thousandth of a percentage oscillate between .210 and .224 trying to glean hope. Every 0-5 night seems to bring a 2-4 following night, or is it the other way around? Is Frazier figuring "it" out or is he just surviving day by day in his new station in AAA Louisville?

Here are some splits and raw stats to consider:

* Right handers are eating him up. His OPS is .640 in 176 ab's. His LD rate is 13% and he has 40 k's to 9 bb's against them.

* Todd, please come home... On the road Frazier is hitting a searingly bad .168 avg with an OPS of .519. Yuck!

* See the ball, hit the ball? Frazier is clearly adjusting to AAA, like he's never had to adjust before. Is it as simple as him learning the pitching? I'm not so sure, but one thing I found interesting is that he is hitting terribly during the beginning and end of games. If you take away innings 1-3, where he's presumably meeting the pitcher for the first time, and innings 8-9, where the bullpen is usually active, his average jumps to .271. Eh, still not Toddy Baseball for ya, but it makes me wonder, is he having trouble recognizing or reacting to pitches?

* It's getting better all the time? Frazier's OPS from April - June goes .599, .666, and .781. That's a good sign. Let's just forget about April and May, huh?

* 12 bombs and counting. Impressive is Frazier's HR pace. His career best 19 hr in 2008 was good for 1 HR per 6.84 games. Now he's on pace to hit 23 or 24 HR's at one per 5.75 games. All in the midst of hitting .219? He must be trying to just kill the ball out of frustration.

* Double or nothing? Frazier hit 45 freaking doubles last year. That impressed me at the time. This year he has 9 measly doubles, which is on pace for 18 on the year. I can't think he will hit less than 30 if he remembers his name, can you?

* Line Drives have been a steady 22% his whole career. This year? 13.8%. His FB% is up over 51%, the highest it's ever been for a season by 6%.

* Finally, his Home and LHP splits look pretty good, still not what I'd like in terms of OBP, but at Home his slash is .266 / .317 / .539 / .856 (despite an 11.3% LD rate) and vs. LHP it looks like .225 / .329 / .479 / .808.

Anyway, I thought it was worth looking into the numbers some more. Feel free to help explain what you've seen, whether in person or elsewhere. I think he's still important to the future of the Reds. Clearly, he's starting to improve some things, but he's got a little way's to go. I'm rooting for him to be that doubles machine he was last year because at GABP you know what that means.

[icehole3]

Votto batted .250 in Sarasota, these are kids and he'll adjust, throw this year out, if he keeps working hard and puts up some decent second half numbers I'll be happy

[TheBigLebowski]

Is there a chance he is hiding an injury?

[dougdirt]

Is there a chance he is hiding an injury?

I think theres a chance he wasn't fully healthy to start the year. He had knee surgery in late November.

[Vottomatic]

I think theres a chance he wasn't fully healthy to start the year. He had knee surgery in late November.

Didn't know that.

I bet that has something to do with it.

I'll wait and see how his second half goes.

[Benihana]

Last year's doubles turned into this year's home runs. That frequently happens with prospects around Todd's age.

Hence the dropoff in doubles and the increase in home runs.

Now, like Alonso and Mesoraco, he needs to start getting on base more.

[mdccclxix]

Last year's doubles turned into this year's home runs. That frequently happens with prospects around Todd's age.

Hence the dropoff in doubles and the increase in home runs.

Now, like Alonso and Mesoraco, he needs to start getting on base more.

Last year he hit 63 xbh. This year he's on pace for 51 in as many at bats, which isn't too bad considering his slow start.

His BABIP is .246, which coupled with his high fly ball and strikeout rates can really lend credence to an idea that the knee injury (right knee on the plant foot) has had an almost exclusive effect on his early struggles. Let's hope that's all it is. Last year Valaika went through a similar meat grinder and came out a different hitter this year (zero home runs). Frazier just isn't squaring the ball very often. It kind of irks me when teams/players force their injuries to the detriment.

[RedsManRick]

Last year's doubles turned into this year's home runs. That frequently happens with prospects around Todd's age.

Hence the dropoff in doubles and the increase in home runs.

Now, like Alonso and Mesoraco, he needs to start getting on base more.

Of course, you'd hope he'd be turning some singles in to doubles as well. I would theorize that a true increase in power output would show up not as a swap of doubles for homers, but as a straight increase in homers as balls are hit with more authority in general.

[mdccclxix]

Happy to report Todd's season has regained some form.

Last 10 games

.400/.447/ .571/ 1.019

8 starts

5 multi-hit games

6 doubles

6 k's

2 bb's

35 ab's

.239 avg and .735 OPS on the season.

[Mario-Rijo]

Of course, you'd hope he'd be turning some singles in to doubles as well. I would theorize that a true increase in power output would show up not as a swap of doubles for homers, but as a straight increase in homers as balls are hit with more authority in general.

It would seem. How about the fact he isn't hitting many LD's and he's hitting alot more flyballs? Probably explains the difference, the question to that is why. Well what we do know about Todd is his quirky swing mechanics. It seems I have heard his mechanics could lead to pitchers busting him in more. If that is what is happening then when they miss the inside part of the plate the hammer comes out.

Just a theory but one that makes sense IMO. It could explain the struggles with other stats but not HR's. If he works it out or they take a different approach in the 2nd half you'll probably see his numbers normalize a bit across the board. Higher average, more doubles, walks, run producing etc. less HR's.