Should Rhodes be an All-Star?

[RedsManRick]

So the national media is starting to pick up on Arthur Rhodes' amazing streak and I started wondering how well he's actually pitched (if you don't take ERA as the best measure of that).

So, I headed over to fangraphs and started pulling some data. The easiest way to get at this question was to simply get the leaders in WAR among pitchers who have pitched only in relief. It turns out that Rhodes is at 0.8 WAR, 14th among all NL relievers, 7th among NL middle relievers,. Interesting. So I dug further and pulled together the stats below for the top 21 guys (all relievers with 0.6 WAR or greater)

Given that reliever value cannot be judged by WAR since context drives so much of how they are used, I wanted to look at some context info. The last three columns are stats related to this:

WPA (Win Probability Added): How the team's chances of winning the game changed when he pitched
LI (Leverage Index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango
WPA/LI: WPA, but with the leverage removed. Basically, this is just another assessment of how well the guy pitched in a generic context.
gmLI:Average Leverage Index when entering the game

Rank	Name	    Tm	IP	WAR	SV	K/9    BB/9	HR/9   BABIP	 LOB%	 ERA	 FIP	xFIP	WPA   WPA/LI	gmLI
1	Broxton	   LAD	33.2	1.8	16	13.1	1.9	0.00	.395	79.0%	1.87	0.93	1.95	1.43	0.61	1.69
2	Gregerson  SDP	39.1	1.5	 1	11.7	0.9	0.46	.189	71.4%	1.60	1.58	2.07	1.98	1.60	1.47
3	Wilson	   SFG	32.0	1.3	21	12.4	3.4	0.28	.385	84.1%	2.25	2.01	2.84	2.34	0.58	1.82
4	Belisle	   COL	47.0	1.2	 1	 9.6	2.1	0.57	.321	75.8%	2.87	2.54	3.01	1.11	1.20	0.91
5	Marmol	   CHI	34.2	1.2	13	16.6	6.5	0.26	.335	83.7%	2.34	2.41	2.94	1.62	0.55	1.86
6	Bell	   SDP	32.2	1.1	21	11.9	3.6	0.28	.394	83.0%	1.93	2.09	2.90	1.86	0.04	1.94
7	Marshall   CHI	36.1	1.1	 1	10.4	3.0	0.25	.293	79.8%	2.23	2.25	2.83	1.24	0.72	1.35
8	Adams	   SDP	36.0	1.0	 0	10.0	2.8	0.25	.281	78.0%	2.25	2.19	3.08	1.43	0.87	1.52
9	Nunez	   FLA	31.2	1.0	16	 8.8	2.3	0.28	.274	77.7%	2.27	2.34	3.05	1.33	0.94	1.65
10	Meek	   PIT	44.0	0.9	 1	 8.4	2.1	0.41	.238	80.1%	1.02	2.61	3.07	0.00	0.92	1.11
11	Clippard   WAS	48.0	0.9	 1	 9.9	3.9	0.56	.280	83.6%	2.25	3.17	4.12	1.07	0.65	1.73
12	Wagner	   ATL	30.1	0.9	15	13.7	3.6	0.59	.275	95.6%	1.19	2.24	2.69	0.87	0.60	1.36
13	Rodriguez  NYM	38.0	0.8	17	11.4	3.1	0.71	.321	88.5%	2.13	2.82	3.37	1.24	0.47	1.56
14	Rhodes	   CIN	32.0	0.8	 0	 8.4	3.1	0.28	.189   100.0%	0.28	2.68	3.44	2.01	1.28	1.43
15	Kuo	   LAD	24.1	0.8	 2	11.1	3.0	0.37	.189	90.4%	1.11	2.19	3.11	1.32	0.95	1.55
16	Hensley	   FLA	32.1	0.8	 0	11.7	3.9	0.28	.309	75.1%	2.51	2.51	3.12	0.80	0.53	1.19
17	Franklin   STL	32.1	0.6	15	 5.3	1.4	0.28	.257	79.8%	2.23	3.10	4.18	2.60	0.76	1.94
18	Venters	   ATL	34.1	0.6	 1	10.0	5.2	0.00	.254	81.4%	1.31	2.93	3.56	0.41	0.61	1.10
19	Betancourt COL	27.0	0.6	 1	11.0	1.7	1.33	.394	66.9%	5.33	3.17	3.16	1.23   -0.16	1.52
20	Lyon	   HOU	33.1	0.6	 1	 7.0	3.0	0.27	.299	41.0%	2.97	3.13	4.50	1.63	0.55	1.48
21	Lindstrom  HOU	31.1	0.6	18	 7.2	3.5	0.29	.369	80.3%	3.16	3.10	3.86   -0.25   -0.11	1.57

A few observations:

• I think sometimes we forget to look at IP. This is true with starters too. Belisle has not pitched as well or in as tough as situations as the other leaders, but he's done well a lot.
• If you want to be a great reliever, keep the ball in the yard.
• ERA is overrated. Much of a relievers value is tied up in his ability to keep other guys' runners from scoring. Brandon Lyon, I'm looking at you.
• Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol and Brian Wilson have it tough. I'm guessing that's what happens when you play for a team that doesn't' score many runs. Not only do you only pitch with a lead but you pitch with small leads.
• The Padre bullpen is ridiculous, with 3 of the top 8 guys as relievers
• Pitching well doesn't make you a closer and being a closer doesn't make you pitch well. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but there are a number of guys who have pitched well in tough situations but who are not their teams closer, notably Gregerson, Adams, and Marshall, who are behind 3 of the best closers.
• Arthur Rhodes has been a very good pitcher this year, but I think it's pretty hard to make a case for him as one of the 5, 6, 10 best relievers. His crazy low BABIP combined with very good, but not great peripherals suggests that he's been getting a lot of help.

[Blitz Dorsey]

No question about it. If he doesn't make it, it's a travesty.

[fearofpopvol1]

I say "yes" because it's likely that Charlie Manuel isn't looking at advanced sabermetrics to make his decisions for the ASG. He's likely to look at ERA.

I still say the scoreless streak, even considering the sabermetrics that shouldn't be overlooked, should warrant the ASG nod for the 40 year old.

[RedsManRick]

I swear it's not my fault...

[HeatherC1212]

Even with what happened tonight, I think Rhodes deserves to be on the All Star team. He's been amazing this year and one bad night shouldn't negate the rest of his season so far.

[kbrake]

I swear it's not my fault...

Pitch forks and torches headed your way RMR.

[dougdirt]

Ok, so everyone be outside of Ricks around 11:45 tonight.