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Thread: Outfield Help?

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'd be surprised if Z and Jocketty haven't talked about Dickerson if they've talked since Z took over the Ms FO.
    I wouldn't either, but like Pagan nice role players can be had w/o dealing your top chips. They should use Lee to get potential game changers. If they want Pagan, he can be had for a lot less.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I wouldn't either, but like Pagan nice role players can be had w/o dealing your top chips. They should use Lee to get potential game changers. If they want Pagan, he can be had for a lot less.
    I think we need to be realistic about Lee's return though. Pagan is an above average major leaguer right now (basically a 3 WAR player) who fits the Ms philosophy perfectly. Flores can probably be a good player in several years-it's real easy to dream on 17-18 year olds but that's why the Mets might trade him-he's a ways off.

    That's a good haul for 15 starts. Maybe since so many teams are seemingly interested, Lee commands more but I'm not ready to assume he'll bring legit game changes that aren't without tons of risk.

    I'm not sure the Mets would part with Pagan very easily BTW-he's more valuable than alot of people give him credit for being.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think we need to be realistic about Lee's return though. Pagan is an above average major leaguer right now (basically a 3 WAR player) who fits the Ms philosophy perfectly. Flores can probably be a good player in several years-it's real easy to dream on 17-18 year olds but that's why the Mets might trade him-he's a ways off.

    That's a good haul for 15 starts. Maybe since so many teams are seemingly interested, Lee commands more but I'm not ready to assume he'll bring legit game changes that aren't without tons of risk.

    I'm not sure the Mets would part with Pagan very easily BTW-he's more valuable than alot of people give him credit for being.
    The Mets are probably too worried about Beltran to deal Pagan this year (too bad I'd like the Reds to get him). But if everybody is healthy he's a bench guy and if you can fill a hole by dealing him, you do it. He's like Dickerson as a mid .700 OPS guy in CF who plays decent defense he's got value. Put him in a corner and I'm not so sure you wouldn't always be looking for an upgrade.

    Personally, I think he's better than Francoeur, but I'd bet he wouldn't start over him.

    Pagan a short term fix and the M's are dealing a guy who should bring longer term solutions.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #34
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I wouldn't do that from a Reds standpoint.

    Neither would I probably. I don't particularly like the idea of dealing for Lee from the principled standpoint that I don't really care about winning with rentals. But I'd be interested in your reasons for not going Volquez for the Lee rental. Team's accomplished what it has this year with no contribution from Volquez whatever; looks like a definition of expendable.

  6. #35
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Really how many impact bats did the Ms pass on? Vlad would've been a great answer at DH but Jr was an edict passed down from on high and also, Z had a budget limit too.

    It might look like Z had a drive going and enigmatically ran out of bounds before crossing the goal line but what he did was build a roster that looked like a 85 win team under some constraints from ownership that limited his ability to maneuver. So the Ms were built on paper to play within striking distance which would've given Z leverage for July moves but the roster also had zero margin of error and no flexibility from the bench. Then everything that could've went wrong did including injuries to key players and half of the lineup starting out in career worst slumps.

    I don't think Z was being too cute at all.
    C
    Barajas
    Hernandez
    B. Molina
    IRod

    1B
    Branyan
    LaRoche
    Thome

    2B
    Hudson

    3B
    Beltre

    OF
    Glaus
    Byrd
    Damon


    Those would have far better choices for the M's. And each of them (aside from perhaps Beltre, who Seattle could and should have re-signed) was available late into the offseason.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  7. #36
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Neither would I probably. I don't particularly like the idea of dealing for Lee from the principled standpoint that I don't really care about winning with rentals. But I'd be interested in your reasons for not going Volquez for the Lee rental. Team's accomplished what it has this year with no contribution from Volquez whatever; looks like a definition of expendable.
    IMO we should want to add a healthy Volquez plus a 2nd TOR starter to the 2010 team. thats a pretty strong 1-2 punch in the playoffs.

    plus with Harang & possibly Arroyo gone after this season I have to think Walt has Volquez pencilled in the 2011 rotation (i would).
    .

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    C
    Barajas
    Hernandez
    B. Molina
    IRod

    1B
    Branyan
    LaRoche
    Thome

    2B
    Hudson

    3B
    Beltre

    OF
    Glaus
    Byrd
    Damon


    Those would have far better choices for the M's. And each of them (aside from perhaps Beltre, who Seattle could and should have re-signed) was available late into the offseason.
    The catchers are all nonstarter ideas for what should be obvious reasons (its hard to criticize a team for preferring their own inhouse turds versus paying for someone else's castoffs when they have other issues to address and ramon's regression is going to really suck for us after the ASB).

    Second base was settled with Figgins and third base was were Lopez took up residence AFTER it was clear that Beltre wasn't going to resign with the Ms despite their efforts.

    Branyan has already been discussed relative to the Ms in explicit detail so he also was clearly not an option. When did Glaus become an outfielder? Also, Bradley's acquisition limited options which were limited anyway by Silva's contract.

    The devil is always in the details and the vast majority of that list simply weren't real options for the Ms.

    The most valid criticism is what they did at DH given Thome/Vlad might have been signable but that was an ownership thing.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-04-2010 at 06:35 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #38
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The catchers are all nonstarter ideas for what should be obvious reasons (its hard to criticize a team for preferring their own inhouse turds when they have other issues to address and ramon's regression is going to really suck for us after the ASB).
    If he regresses, you mean. He could, as he's played a fair amount, but Baker's been pretty smart (and the team's been healthy) about keeping him fresh.

    And the other options are all much better (and cheap enough) that they should have been "starters" for Seattle.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Second base was settled with Figgins and third base was were Lopez took up residence AFTER it was clear that Beltre wasn't going to resign with the Ms despite their efforts.
    I hear best efforts and towing the line, but what it comes down to is poor choices. Why couldn't Figgins play third (as he has in the past, a great deal) and Seattle brought in Hudson? Again, another poor choice.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Branyan has already been discussed relative to the Ms in explicit detail so he also was clearly not an option. When did Glaus become an outfielder? Also, Bradley's acquisition limited options which were limited anyway by Silva's contract.

    The devil is always in the details and the vast majority of that list simply weren't real options for the Ms.

    The most valid criticism is what they did at DH given Thome/Vlad might have been signable but that was an ownership thing.
    Glaus played OF most of last season and has extensive time roaming out there. Bradley for Silva? Why grab a headcase with questionable OF skills especially after the year he had with Chicago? At least Silva only hurts you one day in five rather than every game. (Well, every game he deigns to play.)

    Z's details have been horrid any way you slice it. His team-- despite a $100 million budget-- hasn't improved one iota from the team that was handed him two years ago.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  10. #39
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If he regresses, you mean. He could, as he's played a fair amount, but Baker's been pretty smart (and the team's been healthy) about keeping him fresh.

    And the other options are all much better (and cheap enough) that they should have been "starters" for Seattle.
    RH hasn't hit like this since 2006. He'll regress significantly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I hear best efforts and towing the line, but what it comes down to is poor choices. Why couldn't Figgins play third (as he has in the past, a great deal) and Seattle brought in Hudson? Again, another poor choice.
    Because the Ms want him to play second. It was a good choice BTW. Lopez has been good at thirdbase where he's significantly improved his defensive value. Figgins is getting more and more comfortable at second.

    Their bats? Clearly they are better than the slumps they've started in...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Glaus played OF most of last season and has extensive time roaming out there. Bradley for Silva? Why grab a headcase with questionable OF skills especially after the year he had with Chicago? At least Silva only hurts you one day in five rather than every game. (Well, every game he deigns to play.)
    Troy Glaus???? My god I can't imagine him in Safeco's left field. When and where did he play OF?

    Why Bradley for Silva? Because they unloaded Silva for something they needed-a guy that brought the skills they value to their offense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Z's details have been horrid any way you slice it. His team-- despite a $100 million budget-- hasn't improved one iota from the team that was handed him two years ago.
    Four key starters have begun the season having career low slumps. Name one entity in the universe that projected that.

    Again, the devil is always in the details and we shouldn't gloss over them as the pitchfork is pointy....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #40
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    The M's offensive core is two speed based OF (though Ichiro is definately a main man type) and Figgins. That "type" usually fails. Need some pop.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The M's offensive core is two speed based OF (though Ichiro is definately a main man type) and Figgins. That "type" usually fails. Need some pop.
    Nobody thought the Ms would be an offensive juggernaut-clearly offense was going to be their weakest phase. But going into the season, their top 6 bats were projected to have these wOBA's:

    .350 ichiro
    .340 FG
    .340 Figgins
    .360 Bradley
    .330 Lopez
    .330 Kotchman.

    In other words, not great shakes but all were at least major league average hitters from a true skill standpoint and all would be expected to bring significant defensive value too. Those guys just hitting their projections, Lee not missing a month and Wilson being able to play short would result in a dramatically different Ms season even with them punting DH.

    It's not a failure of philosophy when 4 of those guys simultaneously have career low slumps to start the season.

    And pointing to Branyan ignores that he basically missed all of March/April with his injury (another reason the Ms were unwilling to be locked into a multi0year deal with him)... Even if the Ms buckled inappropriately in Bavasi style regarding Branyan, they'd still have been in the same pickle-too far behind Texas to catch up.

    Truthfully, if Texas keeps playing the way they are, no one in the division was going to hang with them anyway.
    Last edited by jojo; 07-04-2010 at 07:53 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #42
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Nobody thought the Ms would be an offensive juggernaut-clearly offense was going to be their weakest phase. But going into the season, their top 6 bats were projected to have these wOBA's:

    .350 ichiro
    .340 FG
    .340 Figgins
    .360 Bradley
    .330 Lopez
    .330 Kotchman.

    In other words, not great shakes but all were at least major league average hitters from a true skill standpoint and all would be expected to bring significant defensive value too. Those guys just hitting their projections, Lee not missing a month and Wilson being able to play short would result in a dramatically different Ms season even with them punting DH.

    It's not a failure of philosophy when 4 of those guys simultaneously have career low slumps to start the season.

    And pointing to Branyan ignores that he basically missed all of March/April with his injury (another reason the Ms were unwilling to be locked into a multi0year deal with him)... Even if the Ms buckled inappropriately in Bavasi style regarding Branyan, they'd still have been in the same pickle-too far behind Texas to catch up.

    Truthfully, if Texas keeps playing the way they are, no one in the division was going to hang with them anyway.
    This whole conversation started by wondering if the M's didn't need a rebuild. They clearly need to upgrade both IF corners and could use a power bat either in LF or DH. They will lose at least one if not two of their top starters and the SS wasn't anything great even in his better days. They need an infusion of high potential building blocks when dealing Lee and that isn't Pagan. Perhaps if he's a throw in as the third or 4th guy but they need a couple of answers to their holes (and yes I think Kotchman and Lopez are clearly holes).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #43
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    This whole conversation started by wondering if the M's didn't need a rebuild. They clearly need to upgrade both IF corners and could use a power bat either in LF or DH. They will lose at least one if not two of their top starters and the SS wasn't anything great even in his better days. They need an infusion of high potential building blocks when dealing Lee and that isn't Pagan. Perhaps if he's a throw in as the third or 4th guy but they need a couple of answers to their holes (and yes I think Kotchman and Lopez are clearly holes).
    You're seriously undervaluing Pagan and that's really where the conversation began.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #44
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You're seriously undervaluing Pagan and that's really where the conversation began.
    Nice player as a 4th OF who gets 300 ABs. As the every day LF he'd be another Kotchman type that you'd want to upgrade. He's also 30 and if he works out he wouldn't be a long term solution anyway. You can get that w/o dealing a top 5 arm in baseball. When dealing that, aim higher.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #45
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Outfield Help?

    Lopez to the Mets to be the stopgap at 2B with Pagan coming to he M's would be a good deal, but Pagan as one of the main guys for Lee would be a waste of resources for the M's IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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