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Thread: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Nice article, here. Tease:

    The Cincinnati Reds pummeled the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley yesterday afternoon, bopping seven home runs while taking the game fourteen to three. Aside from Brandon Phillips and Jonny Gomes, the Reds’ hitters going deep weren’t the usual suspects. Drew Stubbs trotted around the bases three times. Paul Janish knocked one out, having been thrown into the game following Joey Votto‘s first inning ejection. Backup backstop Corky Miller, called into action after Ramon Hernandez came out with a sore knee, used the power of the Fu Manchu to crank one out of the park.
    It's a nice read. The jist is, the Reds bats probably won't be as good in the second half but won't be dramatically worse.

    Thoughts?
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Nice article, here. Tease:



    It's a nice read. The jist is, the Reds bats probably won't be as good in the second half but won't be dramatically worse.

    Thoughts?
    For context, 10 pts of wOBA is worth about 3 runs over 330 PAs. If my thumb in the air math is correct, those ROS projections are suggesting a 30 run offensive decline in the second half (for the guys listed). Assuming Votto's season keeps plugging along like it is, the ROS projections would be kind of like losing Votto for the second half of the season.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Test for fancy coffee yab1112's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    What are ROS projections based on?
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    For context, 10 pts of wOBA is worth about 3 runs over 330 PAs. If my thumb in the air math is correct, those ROS projections are suggesting a 30 run offensive decline in the second half (for the guys listed). Assuming Votto's season keeps plugging along like it is, the ROS projections would be kind of like losing Votto for the second half of the season.
    So roughly 3 wins?

    The question is, could that be offset by:

    *a healthy Volquez
    *perhaps acquiring a better SP
    *bullpen improvement

    AND

    Will maintaining the current pace be enough?
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    It's a nice read. The jist is, the Reds bats probably won't be as good in the second half but won't be dramatically worse.

    Thoughts?
    Probably right on the money so hopefully it can be offset with the pitching perhaps improving both starters and the pen. We have the potential for it to occur anyway. The schedule in the heat of July kind of helps the staff a bit we are on the road for the majority of it (13 away 9 at home counting pre AS games) but that also nicks the offense a bit that way. The HR has really been the key to the offense so far so we really need to hope BP and Orlando do a nice job of getting on base for the rest of July at least.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 07-05-2010 at 11:50 AM.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Considering the amount of late inning wins, any drop-off offensively would echo resolutely.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Considering the amount of late inning wins, any drop-off offensively would echo resolutely.
    Unless the pitching improves. This team won't fall out of the top ten in MLB in runs scored.

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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    So roughly 3 wins?

    The question is, could that be offset by:

    *a healthy Volquez
    *perhaps acquiring a better SP
    *bullpen improvement

    AND

    Will maintaining the current pace be enough?
    I think the Reds need to upgrade somewhere. They're current pace is good but even then they shouldn't settle.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post

    Will maintaining the current pace be enough?
    Considering their division, probably.

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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think the Reds need to upgrade somewhere. They're current pace is good but even then they shouldn't settle.
    Agreed.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think the Reds need to upgrade somewhere. They're current pace is good but even then they shouldn't settle.
    I agree with this too. Another bat to pair with Gomes, a reliever, and another starting pitcher could make this team strong contenders to go deep in the playoffs.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    If they're three games worse, wouldn't that make them a 93 win team?

    Add in a healthy Volquez (likely worth a game or two over LeCure/Bailey/Wood) and improved pitching (both pen and rotation) and the Reds should be around 95-97 wins, right?
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    I've been hearing that they're gonna drop off offensively all year long. I'm not buying it.
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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If they're three games worse, wouldn't that make them a 93 win team?

    Add in a healthy Volquez (likely worth a game or two over LeCure/Bailey/Wood) and improved pitching (both pen and rotation) and the Reds should be around 95-97 wins, right?
    Right now they'd be a 92 win team assuming they maintained their .566 winning percentage.

    Lose 3 wins worth of runs and the thumb-in-the-air suggests they'd be an 89 win team.

    Then be a worry wort and consider that Leak, Arroyo, Ceuto, and Lecure have posted ERAs that are significantly lower than their FIPs and Leake will begin being managed which might point to run prevention regressing some too... The cavalry right now is a guy coming off of significant surgery who really wasn't a command specialist during his one good year as a major leaguer....

    I'd just be a lot happier is this team was upgraded.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Fangraphs: Cincy Bats Fuel Playoff Push

    Rolen had better be taking his vitamins too....
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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