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Thread: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

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    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    First off I have to say, hats off to Terry Reynolds, Chris Buckley and staff for completely rebuilding the Reds Minor Leagues from the dirt floor up. Although I do really feel for the affiliates for all having very poor seasons despite the influx of talent.

    But all in all next year that could change.

    Lets look at talent at each level of the system.

    AAA

    This year was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut for the Louisville squad with the pitching to match. Things haven't really panned out that way.

    The Pitching has been well above par ranking 2nd in the IL with a team ERA of 3.68 right behind Durham at 3.38. 1st in Shutouts, 5th in team K's, 1st in IP, 4th in fewest hits allowed, 2nd in fewest Runs and ER's allowed, 2nd in fewest HR's allowed, 1st in fewest Hit Batters, 8th in BB's and 2nd in WHIP at 1.30.

    This squad has done this with severe flux in the pitching staff all season long. Going into the season the starting rotation was:

    LeCure
    Wood
    Lehr
    Chapman
    Maloney

    LeCure is on the DL and made it to the ML's for 6 starts.
    Wood is currently in the Reds rotation.
    Lehr had season and probably career ending TJ surgery.
    Chapman has been moved to the bullpen to conserve Innings.
    Maloney is now in the Reds rotation.

    All 5 starters gone. 3 have been to the Majors and a 4th will make it.

    The rotation now consists of:

    Reineke
    Jukick
    Klinker
    Delgado
    Serrano
    Volquez

    Reineke started the season as a reliever but has went 4-4 in 10 starts with a 3.22 ERA. He is not a prospect at 28 but could be a short term BP arm if needed.

    Jukick started the season on the reserve list and the a reliever but has now joined a depleted rotation and has responded by going 2-2 in 8 starts with a 4.35 ERA. Like Reineke he is not a prospect at 27 but probably has no future in the Majors even as a Loogy since LH's hit .060 higher against him than RH's.

    Klinker many of us though would be in AAA to start the year but due to the Chapman signing and the ML contract given to Lehr, he was sent to AA to start the year. He responded by going 5-4 in 13 starts and a sparkling 1.75 ERA. He has only made 3 starts in AAA, going 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA. Will be 26 going into next year. Still has projection to the Majors as a #4 or #5 at best.

    Delgado was a bullpen arm converted to start due to short numbers and lack of depth at AA. Fair well so far going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 starts. At 26 still could be a usable arm out of the Bullpen for the Reds.

    Serrano was just recalled from A+. Had mediocre numbers there as a starter. Probably a one game start for the Bats.

    Volquez is on a rehab assignment and will be with the Reds after the ASB if not sooner if Harang is put on the DL.

    The bullpen has been very fluid all season with 16 different players making a relief appearance this year.

    6 are gone from the team

    Viola - Released
    Baez, Krebs, Tabor - Demoted to AA
    Ondrusek, Bray - Reds

    3 are in the rotation

    Reineke, Jurick, Delgado

    The remaining 7 are

    Burton
    Del Rosario
    Fisher
    Valiquette
    Herrera
    Chapman
    Adkins

    3 have been with the Reds and are on the 40 Man

    Herrera, Del Rosario, Fisher

    Valiquette and Chapman are both 100 MPH LH's who will be ML Players someday

    Burton remains a mystery, but has produced at the ML level before and Adkins is fodder.

    8 pitchers who have pitched the year in Louisville have been with the Reds so far. 9 once Volquez gets promoted.

    The hitting which we all figured to be the strength wasn't until the recent returns of Dorn and Francisco, the Release of Burke and the improved hitting of Alonso and Frazier. They rank 6th in BA, 11th in OBP, 5th in SLG%, 6th in OPS, 5th in Runs Scored and RBI's, 4th in Hits, 4th in HR's, 14th in BB's and 7th in fewest K's.

    Dorn was injured for the majority of the first half missing about 45 games with a hand injury. When he has played according to GOYA he has been the Reds best hitter and it ain't even close. Posting a .380/.480/.860 Slash. Just doesn't seem to be in the Reds plans. He is even hitting LH's this year at a .800 OPS clip and still won't get a sniff. 26 in 2 weeks. Time is running out.

    Valakia has been the most consistent hitter on the Bats this season playing a decent 2B, but his power has just vanished since getting to AAA. Currently SLG .381. Still 24. Has value and time.

    Francisco had a emergency appendectomy in May right as he got on one of his insane tears, (Had a 1.603 OPS in May through the first 8 games). has come back in June without a rehab assignment, with a decent .770 OPS and .813 OPS for the year. Destroying RHP at a .365/.602/.967 OPS. Just turned 23 two weeks and has a ton of value based on bat potential alone.

    Cozart perhaps the most important prospect to the Reds next year has been ok at the plate this year, his first in AAA. On a nice 10 game stretch where his line reads .432/.500/.932. Overall for the season he runs a .324/.421/.745 line. Leads Louisville current roster in 2B's 20, 3B's 3, TB 141, BB's 31, SB's 18 and RBI's 38 and 3rd in HR's with 10. Only committed 7 Errors in 85 games. Will be 25 by seasons end.

    Frazier was the biggest disappointment in the system until recently. Overall he is batting .226 with a slash of .287(Lowest on team)/.431/.717... Although his OPS has increased and improved ever month since April.

    April .599
    May .666
    June .803
    July .883

    His last 10 games read...

    .368/.706/1.074... So he is starting to live up to his hype. 24 years old.

    Alonso the #2 prospect in the system has had a eh year. Played LF early on, now back to his real position of 1B he is forever blocked by Votto. Stuggling all year, some say its his hamate injury others think he lacks power. Regardless, over 2 levels this year his slash reads .323/.383./.718 with a .291/.387/.678 in AAA. 23 years old and probably will be included in any deal for SP.

    Terrero and Griffin are filler. Matthews was recently signed and may be with the big club before long. Long, Burke and Anderson have all been released.

    Sutton and Castillo are both switch hitters who both play a variety of positions and while not true prospects both have value at the ML level.

    Balentien has struggled all year and OPSing .267 in July.

    Denove is a 28 year organizational catcher going 2 for his last 28 and OPSing .581 in AAA.

    Heisey began the year in AAA OPSing .737 before his promotion to the Reds.

    Miller was OPSing .829 before his call up.

    Only 4 AAA players have been on the ML roster all season. Miller and Heisey currently and Sutton who had a Grand Slam and Francisco who had 1 H in 6 AB's to start the season.

    Alonso, Francisco, Cozart and Frazier are all still solid everyday ML prospects. Heisey already in the Majors is too. Valakia, Dorn, Sutton and Castillo have value as bench players, Dorn for his bat the other 3 for their versatility. There is depth there but at least 2 of Alonso, Francisco, Frazier and Cozart could go toward a SP at the Deadline.
    Last edited by nemesis; 07-06-2010 at 07:45 PM.
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  3. #2
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    great read.....glad you are posting here friend. Keep it up.

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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Very nice post.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    It is posts like these that make the Redszone such a great place.


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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Thank you both...
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

    Nothing tastes as good as being fit feels...

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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Wow, great work nemesis, definitely looking forward to any other editions you have of this.
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    I'll also say, this really illustrates the hustle and bustle of running a AAA team, Rick Sweet deserves a raise with all these parts moving around, performing or not performing.
    Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Rick Sweet IMO is where he should be. He does an excellent job of getting all the players plenty of AB's, good at resting them when the struggle and taking all the changes in stride. You never hear the man complain about it. That being said, Ted Power is an absolute must keep for the franchise. He has done an amazing job in converting alot of C talent to ML ready pitchers. I know there are others like Tom Brown in AA, but Power consistently does a great job working with these prospects.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Great read...thanks for posting it.

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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Awesome work, nemesis,

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Good stuff, nemesis.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #12
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    This year was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut for the Louisville squad with the pitching to match. Things haven't really panned out that way.
    A couple of points:

    While until recently, the offense has been pitiful, since around the time of Matthews replacing Burke, it has been quite good.

    Over their last 10 games:

    Matthews - .400/.426/.667 - 1.092
    Dorn - .400/.480/.600 - 1.080
    (only 7 games since he returned from DL)
    Francisco - .325/.349/.750 - 1.099
    Alonso - .386/.400/.705 - 1.105
    Cozart - .306/.432/.500 - .932
    Frazier - .314/.368/.657 - 1.026
    Griffin - .364/.364/.455 - .818
    Balentien - .306/.350/.389 - .739


    I think the offense can be considered a powerhouse. It just took an awfully long time to get there.

    Hanigan's rehab (12 games) has hurt the Bats because Ryan started off so poorly. But he's reaching a point where is almost back in form.

    BTW, it's Jukich, not Jukick.

    But generally, it's a pretty good synopsis of the team in the first half of the season. I don't think the 2nd half will look much like the 1st.

    But catching Columbus may not be attainable. A Wildcard berth is definitely within reach though.

    And don't forget that filler Michael Griffin is hitting .313 on the season at AAA.

  14. #13
    Louisville Bats Expert batsfan's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    A couple of points:

    While until recently, the offense has been pitiful, since around the time of Matthews replacing Burke, it has been quite good.

    Over their last 10 games:

    Matthews - .400/.426/.667 - 1.092
    Dorn - .400/.480/.600 - 1.080
    (only 7 games since he returned from DL)
    Francisco - .325/.349/.750 - 1.099
    Alonso - .386/.400/.705 - 1.105
    Cozart - .306/.432/.500 - .932
    Frazier - .314/.368/.657 - 1.026
    Griffin - .364/.364/.455 - .818
    Balentien - .306/.350/.389 - .739


    I think the offense can be considered a powerhouse. It just took an awfully long time to get there.

    Hanigan's rehab (12 games) has hurt the Bats because Ryan started off so poorly. But he's reaching a point where is almost back in form.

    BTW, it's Jukich, not Jukick.

    But generally, it's a pretty good synopsis of the team in the first half of the season. I don't think the 2nd half will look much like the 1st.

    But catching Columbus may not be attainable. A Wildcard berth is definitely within reach though.

    And don't forget that filler Michael Griffin is hitting .313 on the season at AAA.
    It is worth noting that the Bats have scored 394 runs, and allowed only 347. They have been unable to rally in close games, and have blown a number of them, which is why their record is unbelievably bad (41-46) compared to the Pythagorean record of 49 -37. As GOYA said, the wild card is in reach, and I also think the division is in reach if we stay hot, as Columbus's league leading offense has had most of it's big offensive prospects called up, and is relying on fringe prospects from AA that are putting up amazing numbers that won't last.

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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Louisville

    Thanks for the great read.


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