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Thread: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Carolina

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    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Carolina

    AA


    Not much was expected out of this group in reality to start the season, it was kind of a flux year where the system had graduated so much that there was a "bubble" of sorts in the line. Where the cream of the 2006 class rose through the system together (Stubbs, Heisey, Valakia, Dorn) and the rest of the remaining 2006 class filled out the Carolina Roster.

    The starting pitching should have been a bright spot for the Mudcats. With Klinker and Thompson down a level with the blockage of talent at AAA. Buck and his arm supposedly healthy and Smit making positive strides late in the year last year made the rotation seem ripe with promise. But not to be.

    Overall the pitching rates dead last in ERA (4.41) Earned runs (359) HR's Allowed (61) and Hit Batters (52) in a 10 team Southern League. They rate 5th in IP (732.2) 7th in Hits Allowed (737) 8th in Runs Allowed (395) 9th in Wins (38) Saves (20) BB's Allowed (321) K's against (536) and WHIP (1.44).

    Klinker
    Thompson
    Buck
    Smit
    Cochran

    Were the original 5 starters.

    Klinker is now in AAA. Subtract his numbers and they are dead last in all the categories.

    Thompson just returned from his yearly arm trouble rehab assignment and when healthy has been just outstanding. In 10 starts he has posted a 9.77 K to 1.53 BB with a .195 BAA and a 0.87 WHIP. The feeling on this board is he should have been converted to a reliever long ago. With the teams depth in pitching it seems like a smart move. Still just 24, it seems like he has been around forever.

    Buck this year gave us more of the same. In 5 seasons since being drafted, he has made a grand total of 47 starts. He has a great GO tendency at around 2.2 per FO, which would play well in GABP, but he does not miss bats (around a 4.77 K rate in AA as a 25 year old) and gives up alot of hits. 56 in 39.1 Innings. Supposedly they found a calcium build up on his Lat and they think it's removal will remedy his arm troubles. 2011 is his last chance IMO.

    Smit just imploded. Just flat out imploded. In 2009 he went 4-3 with a nice 3.04 ERA in 21 AA appearances (10 starts). Averaged a over 9 K per and while he had a high walk rate, he seemed to always avoid trouble by missing bats and keeping a tidy .220 BAA. In 10 Appearances this year (9 starts) he went 1-5 with a 9.14 ERA. He lasted 6 innings once and 5 innings or less 7 times. While still missing bats, he was walking more and his BAA ballooned to .311, while his GO/FO tendencies basically got cut in half to 0.40. Basically he fooled no one. Even so, he was still only 24 and LH'd so he was going to be afforded chance after chance, but in the spirit of the Samari he fell on his own sword and retired.

    Cochran, a Indy league find last year has done nothing but do everything asked of him. He has anchored from the 5 spot, a flubbed up rotation to the tune of 16 Starts, 6 wins and a 2.38 ERA. He has been one of few bright spots on a bad season. At 27, he virtually has no future in the majors. Still knowing this, he goes out there every 5 days and throws his all into it and deserves at least a handful of starts in AAA this season for his love of the game.

    Currently the rotation consists of...

    Cochran
    Thompson back from rehab
    Fairel up from A+
    Webb up from A+
    Carroll up from A+

    Webb is LHP and walks the park, at 26 need to probably be moved AAA and to to a Loogy role.

    Carroll doesn't miss bats but induces tons of GB's. At 25 needs to be moved up a level to see if he can maintain his GO rate and still be effective.

    Fairel also a LHP, has potential, but must become a GB pitcher (10 HR allowed in 40 Innings) because he doesn't miss bats either. At 22 has more time than Carroll and Webb.

    As bad as the rotation seems it was a shiny diamond compared to the bullpen's less than stellar performance.

    13 relief pitchers combined totals:

    279 Innings / 297 H / .262 BAA / 151 ER's / 4.87 ERA / 161 BB's / 192 K's / 1.64 WHIP

    Yet Christiani, Freeman and Joseph can't but a ticket to AA.

    Been the same group most the year with a few changes...

    Lil Harang - Released
    Watson - Demoted to A+
    Smith currently in the ML's
    Valiquette promoted to AAA

    The bright spots are

    Horst a LHP, is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 16 appearances 27 Innings 25 H 6 BB's 26 K's and 1 HR against. LHB crush him to a .360 clip, RHB only .216. Being 24, LH and unable to get LHer's out and still in AA, I'm not sure it bodes well for his future as a pro. Maybe a filler prospect in a deadline deal.

    Tabor also a LHP, started the year in AAA and got demoted over a numbers crunch. Responding well, going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in 16 appearances 26 Innings 24 H 8 BB's 26 K's and 1 HR against. His and Horst's numbers are darn near identical. The difference is Tabor can get LH and RH batters out equally. One year older at 25, he could make the Cincy roster as a future Loogy as a injury replacement.

    and that's the bright spots. All of them.

    Gil and Medina are bidding their time on the roster.

    Medina has given up 82 Base runners in 44.2 Innings, a 1.75 WHIP, his K rate is 3.83 per 9 yet he sports a 3.22 ERA. Can I ask how?

    Gil somehow is worse. With more walks than hits allowed, (38 to 37 in 39.2 Innings) sports a 1.89 WHIP and a more like it 4.99 ERA. He is currently the closer in AA. LHB can't hit him (.203 BAA) because he walks all of them (17 BB in 16 IP). RHB have no problem hitting him though .292 BAA. His odd line is this though. At home he sports a 2.75 ERA 19.2 IP 12 BB's and 17 K's. Reasonable. But on the road he must throw with his LH. 7.20 ERA 20 IP 26 BB's and 11 K's. Will turn 28 in the offseason and probably is done with the organization.

    Krebs doesn't seem to be highly regarded. Plods along being solid but not spectacular. Think a LH Brad Salmon or another Brian Shackelford. Get LHB's out (.176 BAA). Could be a ML Loogy for someone. At 25 has a few years to get there.

    Boxberger and Baez are the final two left on the roster. Going in different directions in their careers. Baez at last report was 28 and had a arm that functioned in a foward motion. Boxberger, 22, must have drank the poison Kool Aid in the Carolina Bullpen, 16.62 ERA 9 H 6 BB's in 4.1 IP a 3.46 WHIP since his promotion.

    The lineup started the season with one true prospect in Alonso. That was only because they wanted to get him time in LF to see if he could make the switch. We all know how that story is ending.

    Not much else was expected offensively out of the team. They rank 5th in Runs Scored (379) and RBI's (332) 3rd in Hits (737) and SB's (86) 6th in 2B (146) SLG% (.384) and OPS (.713) 7th in 3B (19) 4th in HR's (53) 9th in BB's (259) 2nd in fewest K's (549) 8th in OBP (.329)

    Parker was handed the 1B job in hopes he could hold it down and provide some offensive support like his .847 OPS in 2008. Instead he was released after 5 games Slashing .105//111//.216

    Eymann has handled the load at 1B for a majority of the season and is a organizational guy. At 26 plays everywhere but CF and C and OPSing .684.

    Kahaulelio had a bad April a great May and a bad June, including a .539 OPS in his last 10 games before he went on the disabled list. Overall his season numbers look good .345 / .445 / .790. But at 25 and still in AA and never OPSing over .700 in his previous 2 seasons, he looks more like an organizational player.

    Costanzo was picked up midway through May from the Indy Circuit and struggled out the gate. Got right in June (.926 OPS) and been Solid in July. The LH batter and former 2nd round pick by the Phillies, has shown power (.490 SLG%) on a team that has none (less Mez). Is currently on a Francisco like tear currently OPSing 1.172 over his last 10 games. Struggles to make contact at times but takes a walk. At 26 not a prospect but would be more than likely called up to AAA if Francisco is traded.

    Negron was acquired in a trade with Boston last season. Has a boatload of tools, is versitile and is a slick fielder. Hits LHP .218 OPS points higher than RHP. Just 24, is a decent prospect due to his everyday position, SS, his versatility (plays 3B, 2B and all 3 OF positions) and the glove he carries.

    Henry is the forgotten man. In his 4th year in AA since being acquired by the Reds he is doing what he always does. OPSing around .800 and playing a good corner OF. Hits both RH and LHP. A 4th OF type. Still just 24, he might have an outside shot at AAA by seasons end.

    Terrero was moved up to AAA and is on the DL.

    Dainelson at 28 is OF filler.

    Kainer was released after 1 game and 4 AB's.

    Phipps is 25 and constantly a .650 OPS guy at every level. Noted for his defense, he has committed 10 Errors in 79 games this season.

    Griffin is an organizational guy and was promoted to AAA.

    Jose Castro hits like Juan, just without the pop. (7 XBH (all 2B) in 216 AB's)

    Denove, 28, was promoted to AAA.

    Yarbrough was a nice FA pick up from the Cardinals and has been a decent bat. At 25 a bit old for AA and K's about a 1/3rd of the time with no real power.

    McMurray is a 23 yr old organizational catcher who might start to hit someday. Has time.

    Mendez just called up from A+ is a 1B/3B who always hits for average and never for power, especially for his positions. Just 23, still will probably be an organizational guy his whole career.

    Sappelt is the current Southern League batting leader (.327). Has Speed, plays a Plus CF, hits for modest power (.440sh SLG% for Career), gets on base (.340ish OBP). Still just 23 could be a attractive trade piece or a quality 4th OF in a couple seasons.

    Mesoraco. What hasn't he done? After 3 uninspired years, both offensively and defensively, has become the #1 prospect in the organization in terms of true value for position played. Has hit for AVG (.306) Power (17 HR / .587 SLG%) played defense (Caught 49% of base runners) takes a walk (.374 OBP) and just turned 22 his 2nd week in AA. (June 19th)

    Henry, Sappelt, Negron, Thompson, Horst and Tabor are all AAA prospects with an outside shots at the ML's. Mez is a ML prospect. Maybe Top 25-50 in all of baseball. Costanzo and Cochran are good organizational guys who could handle a call to AAA. Webb and Carroll both have a shot albeit a small one to succeed in AAA. With Fairel it's to early to tell.
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Carolina

    Appreciate the work that went into this, Nem. Thanks.

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    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Carolina

    Just finished this read after the AAA report. Nicely done nemesis and extremely informative. Thanks!!

  5. #4
    Formerly Farsighted Fan sabometrics's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Minors (pre-Trade Deadline) Carolina

    Read every word, even Samari

    Thanks man I'm loving these updates.
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