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Thread: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

  1. #1
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    I think the Reds are really 2 pitchers away from possibly dominating the post season, a TOR starter and a solid middle reliever. If Walt is able to swing the deal for Lee, would it be worth it to take a flyer on David Weathers, who is sitting at home and wouldn't cost anything more in the way of prospects to help shore up this bullpen?
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    No.

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    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    No.
    Nice analysis
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    No.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    6 months of heartbreak Bob Borkowski's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    No.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Why? For old times sake?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Why? For old times sake?
    He could be a solid middle reliever, better than some of the rookies the Reds have run out there, is a veteran with playoff experience, and wouldn't cost the team any prospects, plus he's said he'd only come back to play in Cincinnati. Those are the main reasons.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    It'd take him a month or two to get ready.

    Let him retire in peace.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #9
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It'd take him a month or two to get ready.

    Let him retire in peace.
    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...thers-willing/

    Im also long tossing, Weathers said. It wouldnt take long for me to get ready. After pitching all those years, I could get it together quick.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Not a chance.

    First of all you have to ask, who is David Weather's replacing?

    Cordero? No
    Masset? Maybe but still no I'll explain why later.
    Rhodes? No
    Bray/Chapman? If he were left handed
    Owings? Does he still pitch for the team? Oh he does, and he's been pretty effective? Awesome.
    Jordan Smith? He's been excellent
    Logan Ondrusek? Excellent since he was called up.

    So essentially you're maybe replacing one of three pitchers with David Weathers? Masset, Smith, or Ondrusek.

    First let's make some assumptions;
    1) David Weathers is pitching at his best. (A big assumption and unlikely)
    I took 2001 when he pitched 86 innings and gave up 23 runs for an ERA+ of 179.
    2) Each pitcher replaces his first half stats, but with Nick Masset's inning load so if you gave up 5 runs in 11 2/3 innings, you'd give up 16 runs in 37 IP.
    ----- -------- ----------- -------------
    Nick Masset 37 IP in 86 team games. 22 Earned Runs. If we assume he'd pitch 37 more innings in the remaining games, we'll give him 22 earned Runs.
    -
    Jordan Smith 5 runs in 11 2/3 IP so far. If we assume 37 IP for him, we're looking at 16 ER.
    -
    Logan Ondrusek 12 runs in 22 2/3 IP. We'll equate that to 20 ER in 37 IP.
    -
    "Super Dave" 23 runs in 86 IP, 10 runs in 37 IP.

    So even at his absolute best, David Weathers would save 12 runs off of the worst of these pitchers half season performances. When you consider that Ondrusek and Masset have both pitched much much better than their overall numbers for the last few months and Jordan Smith has such a small sample size but has pitched well in most of his outings, do you think David Weathers would save runs over those three?
    When people say that I dont know what Im talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  12. #11
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Just to expand on what those before have said:

    Nope.

    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #12
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Thanks Hoosier Red, Masset is who I was considering replacing. I know he has been pitching better lately, but he still makes me nervous. What about inherited runners allowed to score, is there a statistic for that anywhere?
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

  14. #13
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    Thanks Hoosier Red, Masset is who I was considering replacing. I know he has been pitching better lately, but he still makes me nervous. What about inherited runners allowed to score, is there a statistic for that anywhere?
    Weathers made me way more nervous than Masset does, and that was even when Dave was pitching well.

    Weathers is a "feel" RP, not a guy with "stuff". It would take him too long to get any sense of feel.

    Weathers was an important and sometimes underestimated part of this bullpen for a long time. But if he could still pitch, then he would still be pitching.

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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    I've a better idea for an experienced reliever, though not one as experienced as Weathers (who is?): Jared Burton.

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    Re: Would a half season of David Weathers be a boost to the bullpen?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    Thanks Hoosier Red, Masset is who I was considering replacing. I know he has been pitching better lately, but he still makes me nervous. What about inherited runners allowed to score, is there a statistic for that anywhere?
    There is but I don't have it readily available. To be perfectly fair that's a better way to judge a reliever, or at least a combination of the two. (Sort of a plus/minus) for relievers.

    The long explanation goes to why I'm not in favor of making trades or signing players unless they are a clear upgrade(Cliff Lee over Travis Wood or Stephen Drew over Orlando Cabrera types) because any small improvement is unlikely to get noticed in the statistical noise.
    When people say that I dont know what Im talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski


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