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Thread: Cliff Lee

  1. #331
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    No, Law is a noted Reds hater. Unless of course you mention it to him in chat in which case he just guffaws at the fools who follow the Reds.
    While I agree Law hardly has anything good to say about the Reds, there is the chance that the Reds just aren't interested in Cliff Lee given what they have and what it would take to get him.

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  3. #332
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Perhaps the Reds just aren't interested?
    The Reds have already been mentioned as being at least talking to the M's about Lee by more than one reliable source. It's his duty as journalist to at least mentioned what he has heard from other reporters. He's free then to say that he doesn't put much faith in them, or whatever, but he needs to mention every team that has been mentioned as having interest in Lee.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  4. #333
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    I'm starting to think any of the young pitchers could be traded in the right situation.
    Even if you assume the Reds don't bring back either Harang or Arroyo,(and I wouldn't bet the farm on that assumption.) That likely leaves just one spot open for Bailey, Wood, Maloney, Matt Klinker and anyone else I'm forgetting. (I'm assuming Volquez, Cueto, Leake, and Chapman will make the rotation.)

    So if we have to trade any one or even two of these guys to get someone who would all but guarantee the Reds a playoff birth. I'm all for it.

    Trading for Cliff Lee improves the bullpen simply by the fact it's an extra day when the 6th and 7th inning guys won't pitch.
    Here's the thing about trading someone from the 40 man roster that in theory could help the 25 man roster.

    Their impact has to be subtracted from the impact of the upgrade coming back. This is an extreme example but trading Leake for Lee would really be a gigantic overpay for the magnitude of upgrade.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #334
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I don't know about Cliff Lee, or rather his acquisition being what we need to really make a go of it. Certainly I wouldn't say no to acquiring him. Though I think he is a smidge overrated. Well perhaps a poor choice of words there let's just say I think he'd be a quite a bit less effective as a Red. .
    Here was my thinking, although this was before Wood was promoted and had such a good start.

    Someone said Lee could get 20 starts here, so I used that as an example.
    Of those 20 games, if the offense and defense does not vanish, Lee could probably go 13-7. That's reasonable, IMO.

    If we went with Homer/LeCure.. what would be a reasonable projection for Reds' wins in those games.. maybe 7-13?

    That's a 6 game swing.

    Although Wood might be able to do better than Homer/LeCure.
    I really don't want to count on Volquez doing much better, as he is coming off an injury.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #335
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Perhaps the Reds just aren't interested?
    Perhaps, but I would put my money on Keith Law not being in the loop on what's really going on.

  7. #336
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    From Jayson Stark's latest column:

    ēThe Reds "are more interested than they're letting on" in Lee, while the Yankees also continue to monitor the Mariners' left-hander.
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...tkins-lee.html

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?...26id%3d5349927
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #337
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If the Reds want Cliff Lee, they can get him. They absolutely have the parts without touching the MLB roster, short of Travis Wood, who may be needed. I don't think the Reds make the move though, but if they wanted to, they absolutely could get it done.
    Go get him. That's all I've got.

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    I keep hearing about the two draft picks we get for Lee, Two draft picks we get for Lee. And? So we get 2 guys who may or may not make it out of A+? Wood is a draft pick. A second rounder and in the Majors. Mez ia a high first rounder and the best offensive catcher in the Minors right now. Who knows what we get with those draft picks. It could be a Billy Hamilton or a Chris Gruler. Bird in hand is way more valuable than 2 in the bush. Mez and Wood give you 6 years of production and both will still be under 30 after those 6 years. This team can win the division without Lee this year and if you don't trade the wrong pieces for the next 3 or 4 years. I'd rather see a long tern run vs a one year wonder. Don't forget 1999 to 2000. Trading Tomko and Cameron was a part of the teams long term spiral. There were other factors, but keeping those two might have change this teams fortunes.

    Also Texas had all those catchers yes. Yes none have lived up to the billing. But were not Texas. Mez isn't Ramirez, Teagarden or Saltamaccha, he's Devon. Let him be him. That be like saying he is going to be Mauer. You don't deal pieces like Mez, you collect them.
    We all talk ourselves into our own prospects. Cliff Lee gives the Reds a chance at a WORLD SERIES. Seriously, a world series. He's that good.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I don't know about Cliff Lee, or rather his acquisition being what we need to really make a go of it. Certainly I wouldn't say no to acquiring him. Though I think he is a smidge overrated. Well perhaps a poor choice of words there let's just say I think he'd be a quite a bit less effective as a Red. The Reds hit him fairly well in the game we played against him in Seattle if that game is in Cincy he gets run after 5 or so probably. In his career he has 5 starts in GABP and has given up 7 jacks there which is tied with U.S. cellular field and now Safeco for the parks he has given up the most HR's in. He has 9 Starts (almost double to GABP) at US cellular and 14 in Safeco. He also has the 3rd highest OPS against (in fields with more than one start) in GABP. The others are Boston and Texas 2 other hitters parks. He seems like a great fit for say the LA Dodgers, which should go ahead and make the plunge themselves this season (Mannys last).

    If they would do it I'd rather go after Ted Lilly if anyone, I think he's a solid fit for likely much less in prospects.
    The guy has a 15.6/1 K/BB ratio.

    Re-read that sentence.



    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I meant to mention this earlier: I heard that little weasel Keith Law on Colin Cowherd's radio show yesterday and he didn't mention the Reds once as a candidate to land Lee. What a tool. He doesn't exactly do his homework. He even mentioned the Twins and not the Reds! He mentioned the Yankees, Twins, etc, but never the Reds and they talked about Lee for a long time. At least throw the Reds in there since they are in fact in the running. Can't stand Keith Law.
    This isn't college football. It literally means nothing in the MLB how much press you get. It doesn't matter at all in professional sports. Only matters in college football, where rankings matter. Why worry about what an ESPN pundit has to say? Even worse, its on Colin freakin Cowherd. Guy makes a living off just being a loud mouth. I'd rather fly under the radar.

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post

  9. #338
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    If the Reds want Lee, they'll get him. The Reds have a lot of pieces and they have a capable GM.
    Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/ShaneHorning

  10. #339
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Even if the Reds don't sign Arroyo, and Travis Wood is a major leaguer, you still have three-four arms at AAA who are reliable options. How many do you need?
    Grieneke or Haren? I'd move one or two. For a rental like Lee? I keep all of them. Here is why...

    In 2003 17 different pitchers made starts for the Reds

    Ryan Dempster
    Paul Wilson
    John Riedling
    Jimmy Haynes
    Brian Reith
    Chris Reitsma
    Danny Graves
    Jimmy Anderson
    John Bale
    Jeff Austin
    Seth Etherton
    Josh Hall
    Jose Acevedo
    Dan Serafini
    Scott Randell
    Todd Van Poppel
    Aaron Harang

    4 came out of the Reds farm system. Just piles and piles of crap there.

    In 2004 it was 11.

    Wilson
    Harang
    Acevedo
    Van Poppel
    Haynes
    Brandon Claussen
    Josh Hancock
    Luke Hudson
    Jung Keun Bong
    Jesus Sanchez
    Joe Valentine

    1 came out of the Reds System. Still just alot of crap.

    In 2005 in was 9.

    Eric Milton
    Harang
    Ortiz
    Claussen
    Wilson
    Hudson
    Matt Belisle
    Randy Keisler
    Elizardo Ramirez

    0 was from the Reds Farm System. 1 ML avg starter in that group/

    !n 2006 it was back up to 11.

    Milton
    Harang
    Claussen
    Ramirez
    Belisle
    Bronson Arroyo
    Kyle Loshe
    Joe Mays
    Chris Michalak
    Justin Germano
    Sun-Woo Kim

    0 from the Farm System. 2 ML Avg Starters in that group.

    So in 3 years, 1 developed farm hand (Acevedo) made a start for the ML club,

    In 2007 it was 10.

    Arroyo
    Harang
    Belisle
    Milton
    Ramirez
    Bobby Livingston
    Phillip Dumatrait
    Tom Shearn
    Kirk Saarloos
    Homer Bailey

    1 was from the Reds Farm System. 2 ML avg starters once again.

    2008 it was 10.

    Arroyo
    Harang
    Bailey
    Ramon Ramirez
    Belisle
    Josh Fogg
    Edison Volquez
    Johny Cueto
    Adam Pettyjohn
    Daryl Thompson

    3 were from the Farm System 3 ML Avg starters in that group.

    in 2009 it was 9.

    Arroyo
    Harang
    Volquez
    Bailey
    Cueto
    Micah Owings
    Kip Wells
    Justin Lehr
    Matt Maloney

    2 were from the Reds Farm system... 5 ML Avg starters in that group

    In 2010, so far... it's 7 with 8 on the way (Volquez)

    Arroyo
    Harang
    Cueto
    Leake
    Bailey
    Sam Lecure
    Travis Wood

    5 from the farm system. 5 ML avg starters in that group. Soon to be 6. History dictates that this franchise needs 9 to 11 starters a year. This year seems a bit different, so this season would be the aberration. So you trade for Lee and give up Wood. At the end of the season. You let Lee walk for picks. Decline both Arroyo and Harang.

    Your left with,

    Cueto
    Volquez (on inning restrictions)
    Leake (on inning restrictions)
    Bailey (on inning restrictions)
    Chapman (on inning restrictions)

    Maloney
    Klinker
    LeCure are your AAA fall backs. Not really reassuring.

    After that you have nothing. So now you get back into the Josh Fogg's of the world because you don't have the pieces to trade for a top shelf pitcher.

    So what you need to trade for is what you gave up for 2 months of Lee and dust.

    So do you overpay a quickly declining Arroyo or Harang for one more year? Handicap payroll by resigning Lee and lose one or more of Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez or Phillps?

    Or trade for a Haren for a Alonso, Valiquette and Bailey?

    Haren
    Cueto
    Volquez
    Leake
    Wood


    Now you only have to monitor 2 pitchers innings instead of 4. AAA now bolsters you with...

    Chapman
    Maloney
    LeCure
    Klinker

    Even if you switch Chapman and Wood around, it still is a deeper more talented group.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

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  11. #340
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Dan Haren is the guy I try to get. I don't know if he's available, but I would try. He's got a very good contract.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  12. #341
    Mr.Redlegs is my homeboy Eric_the_Red's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    If the Reds could get Lee this year, they are serious contenders. I could care less about where that puts the team next year if they have a good shot at the World Series this year.

    How long do those memories of 1990 live on? If they win it all this year, it would go a long way to helping fans forget the last 10-15 years. Heck, even the 1999 season is very fondly remembered because they were in the hunt.

    I'm not saying you cripple your organization to get him, but with the amount of young players already on the ML roster, I don't see that happening in a deal for Lee.

    Do it.

  13. #342
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    If Jocketty made a move to get Lee and the Reds catch lightning in a bottle and win it all with that mix, the trade would be talked about 25 years from now the same way the Morgan - May deal still is today.

    It would be very Jocketty for him to go out and make it happen, again from under the radar like he operated with Chapman.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  14. #343
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Dan Haren is the guy I try to get. I don't know if he's available, but I would try. He's got a very good contract.
    I like this idea also.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  15. #344
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I like the ideas of Lee, Haren, even Oswalt. What I don't like, as I've been saying for a while, is trading Travis Wood. I think that will come--rather quickly--to be looked on as a mistake.

  16. #345
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    From Buster Olney's twitter:

    SEA continues to look for big bat potential in a Lee deal, and 2 guys fit the description:Justin Smoak of TEX and Yonder Alonso of the Reds.

    As old friend Peter Gammons notes, Alonso(former No. 1 pick,.713 OPS in minors)is blocked in the CIN organization by MVP cand. Joey Votto.

    http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN

    It should be noted around this time last year Yonder Alonso broke the hamate bone in his wrist and that type of injury usually saps power for a year. Alonso has struggled at times this season but he's starting to heat up as his wrist heals. He's working on a streak of three consecutive three hit games, including a grand slam last night. He could be heating up at the perfect time.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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