"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Their impact has to be subtracted from the impact of the upgrade coming back. This is an extreme example but trading Leake for Lee would really be a gigantic overpay for the magnitude of upgrade.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Someone said Lee could get 20 starts here, so I used that as an example.
Of those 20 games, if the offense and defense does not vanish, Lee could probably go 13-7. That's reasonable, IMO.
If we went with Homer/LeCure.. what would be a reasonable projection for Reds' wins in those games.. maybe 7-13?
That's a 6 game swing.
Although Wood might be able to do better than Homer/LeCure.
I really don't want to count on Volquez doing much better, as he is coming off an injury.
Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy -- it was nice while it lasted..
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
From Jayson Stark's latest column:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...tkins-lee.htmlēThe Reds "are more interested than they're letting on" in Lee, while the Yankees also continue to monitor the Mariners' left-hander.
Re-read that sentence.
If the Reds want Lee, they'll get him. The Reds have a lot of pieces and they have a capable GM.
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In 2003 17 different pitchers made starts for the Reds
Todd Van Poppel
4 came out of the Reds farm system. Just piles and piles of crap there.
In 2004 it was 11.
Jung Keun Bong
1 came out of the Reds System. Still just alot of crap.
In 2005 in was 9.
0 was from the Reds Farm System. 1 ML avg starter in that group/
!n 2006 it was back up to 11.
0 from the Farm System. 2 ML Avg Starters in that group.
So in 3 years, 1 developed farm hand (Acevedo) made a start for the ML club,
In 2007 it was 10.
1 was from the Reds Farm System. 2 ML avg starters once again.
2008 it was 10.
3 were from the Farm System 3 ML Avg starters in that group.
in 2009 it was 9.
2 were from the Reds Farm system... 5 ML Avg starters in that group
In 2010, so far... it's 7 with 8 on the way (Volquez)
5 from the farm system. 5 ML avg starters in that group. Soon to be 6. History dictates that this franchise needs 9 to 11 starters a year. This year seems a bit different, so this season would be the aberration. So you trade for Lee and give up Wood. At the end of the season. You let Lee walk for picks. Decline both Arroyo and Harang.
Your left with,
Volquez (on inning restrictions)
Leake (on inning restrictions)
Bailey (on inning restrictions)
Chapman (on inning restrictions)
LeCure are your AAA fall backs. Not really reassuring.
After that you have nothing. So now you get back into the Josh Fogg's of the world because you don't have the pieces to trade for a top shelf pitcher.
So what you need to trade for is what you gave up for 2 months of Lee and dust.
So do you overpay a quickly declining Arroyo or Harang for one more year? Handicap payroll by resigning Lee and lose one or more of Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez or Phillps?
Or trade for a Haren for a Alonso, Valiquette and Bailey?
Now you only have to monitor 2 pitchers innings instead of 4. AAA now bolsters you with...
Even if you switch Chapman and Wood around, it still is a deeper more talented group.
If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...
Nothing tastes as good as being fit feels...
Dan Haren is the guy I try to get. I don't know if he's available, but I would try. He's got a very good contract.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
If the Reds could get Lee this year, they are serious contenders. I could care less about where that puts the team next year if they have a good shot at the World Series this year.
How long do those memories of 1990 live on? If they win it all this year, it would go a long way to helping fans forget the last 10-15 years. Heck, even the 1999 season is very fondly remembered because they were in the hunt.
I'm not saying you cripple your organization to get him, but with the amount of young players already on the ML roster, I don't see that happening in a deal for Lee.
If Jocketty made a move to get Lee and the Reds catch lightning in a bottle and win it all with that mix, the trade would be talked about 25 years from now the same way the Morgan - May deal still is today.
It would be very Jocketty for him to go out and make it happen, again from under the radar like he operated with Chapman.
Is it solipsistic in here, or is it just me?
I like the ideas of Lee, Haren, even Oswalt. What I don't like, as I've been saying for a while, is trading Travis Wood. I think that will come--rather quickly--to be looked on as a mistake.
From Buster Olney's twitter:
SEA continues to look for big bat potential in a Lee deal, and 2 guys fit the description:Justin Smoak of TEX and Yonder Alonso of the Reds.
As old friend Peter Gammons notes, Alonso(former No. 1 pick,.713 OPS in minors)is blocked in the CIN organization by MVP cand. Joey Votto.
It should be noted around this time last year Yonder Alonso broke the hamate bone in his wrist and that type of injury usually saps power for a year. Alonso has struggled at times this season but he's starting to heat up as his wrist heals. He's working on a streak of three consecutive three hit games, including a grand slam last night. He could be heating up at the perfect time.
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