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Thread: Cliff Lee

  1. #256
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    If the Reds acquire Cliff Lee then I'll go ahead start saving money to buy playoff tickets. I think he pushes the Reds over the top in the NL Central and makes them World Series contenders. Yes, I said it, and I truly believe that. Cliff Lee is that good.

    Of all the prospects in the Reds minor leagues, Aroldis Chapman and Yorman Rodriguez are the two I wouldn't deal. The rest are fair game for Lee.
    Sounds about right. Tell the M's to pick 3 or 4 of our minor leaguers other than those mentioned and do it. Face it, it will take a lot to get Cliff Lee...those with weak stomachs leave the room.

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  3. #257
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I'll also add that it would be extremely tough to part with catcher Devin Mesoraco (just turned 22, .975 OPS between A+ and AA, throwing out nearly 50% of base stealers). I would have to think long and hard about trading him but the drafting of Yasmani Grandal may make him expendable.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  4. #258
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I don't think the deal would be too ridiculous seeing as how it's only half a season of Lee. I think 2 great prospects and 1 good prospect should get it done. I'm fine with Alonso or Wood or whomever. However, I would be disappointed if it ended up being Alonso, Wood and Mesoraco. That just seems like a bit much. I'd much rather swap out Francisco with Mesoraco.

    This is too much to think about. I don't want to get my hopes up too much!

    Okay, IF the Reds get Lee, what does the staff look like? Would Leake be shut down once Lee makes it over?

    Lee
    Cueto
    Volquez
    Arroyo
    Harang

    Pen:

    Cordero
    Masset
    Bray
    Chapman
    Rhodes
    Bailey
    Smith

    Would you option Owings? And Ondrusek? Or stick him in over Bailey or Smith or Bray?

    Sure is interesting to ponder!

  5. #259
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    If these Lee rumors are true, I have a feeling that Wood is being auditioned right now. I read somewhere a while ago that the M's are looking for a catcher and/or a hitter. That does seem to work out with Mesoraco.

    Mes
    Wood
    Alonso

    I'd like to only see one of those 3 leave in a rental, if possible. I doubt players like Francisco, Frazier, Valaika, Maloney, Klinker interest them much.
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  6. #260
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I'll also add that it would be extremely tough to part with catcher Devin Mesoraco (just turned 22, .975 OPS between A+ and AA, throwing out nearly 50% of base stealers). I would have to think long and hard about trading him but the drafting of Yasmani Grandal may make him expendable.
    I think if you look at it just in the nutshell of this season it would be tough to part with him. However, looking at his career minor league numbers, I would gladly give him up in a package (with Alonso and one other) if it meant getting Cliff Lee in return. Maybe Mez has put it all together, or maybe he's having a bit of a fortunate year. I don't know. All I know is he's struggled big time up until this season and the Reds just drafted a catcher in the first round for only the fourth time in club history (and second time in four years). Mesoraco has to be considered a legit candidate to be included in any deal and I wouldn't hate to see him go. We need to make a push this year ... it's been way too long for this storied franchise between playoff appearances. Good teams take chances and make themselves better before the trading deadline. And I don't think giving up on Mesoraco and Alonso would be that big of a gamble when you're talking about getting Lee in return.

  7. #261
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Just to play Devil's Advocate (and trust me, I want Cliff Lee), it's worth noting that a little team called the Expos thought that trading away some prospects to get TOR guy in Bartolo Colon was a good idea too.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  8. #262
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Just to play Devil's Advocate (and trust me, I want Cliff Lee), it's worth noting that a little team called the Expos thought that trading away some prospects to get TOR guy in Bartolo Colon was a good idea too.
    Yes, but they also believed that they were going to be contracted in a few years, so literally, the future was now for them.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  9. #263
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I think if you look at it just in the nutshell of this season it would be tough to part with him. However, looking at his career minor league numbers, I would gladly give him up in a package (with Alonso and one other) if it meant getting Cliff Lee in return. Maybe Mez has put it all together, or maybe he's having a bit of a fortunate year. I don't know. All I know is he's struggled big time up until this season and the Reds just drafted a catcher in the first round for only the fourth time in club history (and second time in four years). Mesoraco has to be considered a legit candidate to be included in any deal and I wouldn't hate to see him go. We need to make a push this year ... it's been way too long for this storied franchise between playoff appearances. Good teams take chances and make themselves better before the trading deadline. And I don't think giving up on Mesoraco and Alonso would be that big of a gamble when you're talking about getting Lee in return.
    I agree with your sentiment, however I like to look at Mesoraco as being a HS catcher from PA that also battled injury before this year. The "coming together" narrative is pretty decently worthy of conversation. I'd cringe to see him and another 1st rounder go. Here's why:

    Looking at what Cleveland got from Philly last year for 1.5 years of Cliff Lee:

    * Jason Knapp - 2nd round young pitcher doing well in A ball at 17-18 y/o.
    * Carlos Carrasco - #52 by BA pre-2009 - a really fine pitcher in AAA at 22 y/o and striking out over 3 per bb and 8 per 9 innings.
    * Jason Donald - 3 round batter - #69 in BA pre-2009 - good AA numbers in 2008 but struggled similar to Frazier is in AAA in 2009.
    * Lou Marson - 4th round catcher in AAA at 23 y/o - OPS in minors of .754 driven by OBP.

    Philly was able to hang on to 1st rounders Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek which helped grab Halladay in the offseason. They did give up 2 fine young arms, a decent bat and decent catcher. I'd give comps in the Reds system of Zach Stewart (Knapp), Travis Wood (Carrasco), Todd Frazier (Donald), a young Hanigan? (Marson).

    Philly went to the WS, riding Lee the whole way. He is a stud, afterall.

    Then in the off-season, for reasons I still don't know, Philly traded Lee to Seattle. I know it seemed to help bring in Halladay, who was willing to sign, but IIRC they could have kept both had they offered a bit more to Toronto.

    Anyway, here's what Lee brought Philly for 1 full season's worth to Seattle:

    * J. C. Ramirez - must have good "stuff" since is minors ERA is 4.15, he was 20 in high A last year.
    * Phillippe Aumont - 1st round flamethrower with control issues, had a good showing in the WBC - #93 by BA pre-2009
    * Tyson Gillies - a speedy OF who OPS'd .916 last year in high A, driven by a .430 OBP, 14 triples, and good plate discipline.

    Philly recovered the two arms they gave up at the deadline and also added a really nice young player with athleticism to mitigate losing Donald and Marson (BA #69 and 66 pre-2009 respectively).


    So, what will Seattle hope to recover from their losses? I'd say they'd need a top arm and a strong bat, at least.

    * Wood for Aumont
    * Heisey for Gillies
    * D. Joseph for Ramirez

    Perhaps the upside isn't the same, but the readiness is in the Reds favor for the players I've put up there (and the Mariners could use some readiness). Plus, this is only for half a season, so why should the Mariners get equal for their deal in the off season? That's why I wouldn't go crazy trading 2 first rounders and then some. Our top pitcher and top batter from last year is a really good starting point.
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  10. #264
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I agree with your sentiment, however I like to look at Mesoraco as being a HS catcher from PA that also battled injury before this year. The "coming together" narrative is pretty decently worthy of conversation. I'd cringe to see him and another 1st rounder go. Here's why:

    Looking at what Cleveland got from Philly last year for 1.5 years of Cliff Lee:

    * Jason Knapp - 2nd round young pitcher doing well in A ball at 17-18 y/o.
    * Carlos Carrasco - #52 by BA pre-2009 - a really fine pitcher in AAA at 22 y/o and striking out over 3 per bb and 8 per 9 innings.
    * Jason Donald - 3 round batter - #69 in BA pre-2009 - good AA numbers in 2008 but struggled similar to Frazier is in AAA in 2009.
    * Lou Marson - 4th round catcher in AAA at 23 y/o - OPS in minors of .754 driven by OBP.

    Philly was able to hang on to 1st rounders Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek which helped grab Halladay in the offseason. They did give up 2 fine young arms, a decent bat and decent catcher. I'd give comps in the Reds system of Zach Stewart (Knapp), Travis Wood (Carrasco), Todd Frazier (Donald), a young Hanigan? (Marson).

    Philly went to the WS, riding Lee the whole way. He is a stud, afterall.

    Then in the off-season, for reasons I still don't know, Philly traded Lee to Seattle. I know it seemed to help bring in Halladay, who was willing to sign, but IIRC they could have kept both had they offered a bit more to Toronto.

    Anyway, here's what Lee brought Philly for 1 full season's worth to Seattle:

    * J. C. Ramirez - must have good "stuff" since is minors ERA is 4.15, he was 20 in high A last year.
    * Phillippe Aumont - 1st round flamethrower with control issues, had a good showing in the WBC - #93 by BA pre-2009
    * Tyson Gillies - a speedy OF who OPS'd .916 last year in high A, driven by a .430 OBP, 14 triples, and good plate discipline.

    Philly recovered the two arms they gave up at the deadline and also added a really nice young player with athleticism to mitigate losing Donald and Marson (BA #69 and 66 pre-2009 respectively).


    So, what will Seattle hope to recover from their losses? I'd say they'd need a top arm and a strong bat, at least.

    * Wood for Aumont
    * Heisey for Gillies
    * D. Joseph for Ramirez

    Perhaps the upside isn't the same, but the readiness is in the Reds favor for the players I've put up there (and the Mariners could use some readiness). Plus, this is only for half a season, so why should the Mariners get equal for their deal in the off season? That's why I wouldn't go crazy trading 2 first rounders and then some. Our top pitcher and top batter from last year is a really good starting point.
    Its not about the past, its about giving up more than the next guy. Lee's value in terms of dominance has gone up and up. He is a ticket to the postseason for many teams.

  11. #265
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I'd put Yonder in a deal. I'd put Maloney in a deal. Beyond that though, I don't know that I'd sell the farm just for a new horse with a 2-3 month expiration date. However if I knew we were getting him for the next 5 years, nothing would be off limits including Cueto or Bruce.

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  12. #266
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Its not about the past, its about giving up more than the next guy. Lee's value in terms of dominance has gone up and up. He is a ticket to the postseason for many teams.
    I agree, but time has passed and Lee is definitely not as valuable as he was last deadline. Perhaps with the desperation that goes into the deadline this year, he could be worth as much as the off-season. Either way, I think 2 first rounders would be a huge haul for Lee. If bidding goes really high, it could get ugly, but I think a reasonable starting point, and a reasonable ending point, could include no more than one of Mes, Wood and Yonder. There are plenty of other options to satisfy the value of Lee (who does have injury concerns, btw).
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  13. #267
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    That said, I really thought Philly did a good job last year of keeping their top players out of the discussion. I think the Reds can do the same if they so choose.
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  14. #268
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I agree with your sentiment, however I like to look at Mesoraco as being a HS catcher from PA that also battled injury before this year. The "coming together" narrative is pretty decently worthy of conversation. I'd cringe to see him and another 1st rounder go. Here's why:

    Looking at what Cleveland got from Philly last year for 1.5 years of Cliff Lee:

    * Jason Knapp - 2nd round young pitcher doing well in A ball at 17-18 y/o.
    * Carlos Carrasco - #52 by BA pre-2009 - a really fine pitcher in AAA at 22 y/o and striking out over 3 per bb and 8 per 9 innings.
    * Jason Donald - 3 round batter - #69 in BA pre-2009 - good AA numbers in 2008 but struggled similar to Frazier is in AAA in 2009.
    * Lou Marson - 4th round catcher in AAA at 23 y/o - OPS in minors of .754 driven by OBP.

    Philly was able to hang on to 1st rounders Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek which helped grab Halladay in the offseason. They did give up 2 fine young arms, a decent bat and decent catcher. I'd give comps in the Reds system of Zach Stewart (Knapp), Travis Wood (Carrasco), Todd Frazier (Donald), a young Hanigan? (Marson).

    Philly went to the WS, riding Lee the whole way. He is a stud, afterall.

    Then in the off-season, for reasons I still don't know, Philly traded Lee to Seattle. I know it seemed to help bring in Halladay, who was willing to sign, but IIRC they could have kept both had they offered a bit more to Toronto.

    Anyway, here's what Lee brought Philly for 1 full season's worth to Seattle:

    * J. C. Ramirez - must have good "stuff" since is minors ERA is 4.15, he was 20 in high A last year.
    * Phillippe Aumont - 1st round flamethrower with control issues, had a good showing in the WBC - #93 by BA pre-2009
    * Tyson Gillies - a speedy OF who OPS'd .916 last year in high A, driven by a .430 OBP, 14 triples, and good plate discipline.

    Philly recovered the two arms they gave up at the deadline and also added a really nice young player with athleticism to mitigate losing Donald and Marson (BA #69 and 66 pre-2009 respectively).


    So, what will Seattle hope to recover from their losses? I'd say they'd need a top arm and a strong bat, at least.

    * Wood for Aumont
    * Heisey for Gillies
    * D. Joseph for Ramirez

    Perhaps the upside isn't the same, but the readiness is in the Reds favor for the players I've put up there (and the Mariners could use some readiness). Plus, this is only for half a season, so why should the Mariners get equal for their deal in the off season? That's why I wouldn't go crazy trading 2 first rounders and then some. Our top pitcher and top batter from last year is a really good starting point.
    Solid post. Very good food for thought.

  15. #269
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I think it is safe to say that the trade deadline this year will be interesting for very different reasons than years past.
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  16. #270
    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Checked again with Jason from the M's site to see if anything has changed, and his statement is that the Reds need a 3rd team to make the deal work. Not sure why that needs to be the case, but perhaps that's why the Gammons rumor was purposely leaked?


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