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Thread: Cliff Lee

  1. #271
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I agree with your sentiment, however I like to look at Mesoraco as being a HS catcher from PA that also battled injury before this year. The "coming together" narrative is pretty decently worthy of conversation. I'd cringe to see him and another 1st rounder go. Here's why:

    Looking at what Cleveland got from Philly last year for 1.5 years of Cliff Lee:

    * Jason Knapp - 2nd round young pitcher doing well in A ball at 17-18 y/o.
    * Carlos Carrasco - #52 by BA pre-2009 - a really fine pitcher in AAA at 22 y/o and striking out over 3 per bb and 8 per 9 innings.
    * Jason Donald - 3 round batter - #69 in BA pre-2009 - good AA numbers in 2008 but struggled similar to Frazier is in AAA in 2009.
    * Lou Marson - 4th round catcher in AAA at 23 y/o - OPS in minors of .754 driven by OBP.

    Philly was able to hang on to 1st rounders Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek which helped grab Halladay in the offseason. They did give up 2 fine young arms, a decent bat and decent catcher. I'd give comps in the Reds system of Zach Stewart (Knapp), Travis Wood (Carrasco), Todd Frazier (Donald), a young Hanigan? (Marson).

    Philly went to the WS, riding Lee the whole way. He is a stud, afterall.

    Then in the off-season, for reasons I still don't know, Philly traded Lee to Seattle. I know it seemed to help bring in Halladay, who was willing to sign, but IIRC they could have kept both had they offered a bit more to Toronto.

    Anyway, here's what Lee brought Philly for 1 full season's worth to Seattle:

    * J. C. Ramirez - must have good "stuff" since is minors ERA is 4.15, he was 20 in high A last year.
    * Phillippe Aumont - 1st round flamethrower with control issues, had a good showing in the WBC - #93 by BA pre-2009
    * Tyson Gillies - a speedy OF who OPS'd .916 last year in high A, driven by a .430 OBP, 14 triples, and good plate discipline.

    Philly recovered the two arms they gave up at the deadline and also added a really nice young player with athleticism to mitigate losing Donald and Marson (BA #69 and 66 pre-2009 respectively).


    So, what will Seattle hope to recover from their losses? I'd say they'd need a top arm and a strong bat, at least.

    * Wood for Aumont
    * Heisey for Gillies
    * D. Joseph for Ramirez

    Perhaps the upside isn't the same, but the readiness is in the Reds favor for the players I've put up there (and the Mariners could use some readiness). Plus, this is only for half a season, so why should the Mariners get equal for their deal in the off season? That's why I wouldn't go crazy trading 2 first rounders and then some. Our top pitcher and top batter from last year is a really good starting point.
    Good post. Remember, Lee will be worth picks if the M's keep him and don't resign him. I'm not sure the package you presented is sexy enough for the M's though. It's definitely a good package...but I think the Ms want 1 major prospect and I don't think any of the guys you listed are it. I would be thrilled though if they would consider Wood to be a major prospect however.

    I think they will want at least 1 of Alonso or Mesoraco. I'm fine with Alonso, but don't want to part with Mesoraco. He is killing it in AA right now. I do fear that the pick of Grandal may make Mez more expendable.


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  3. #272
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    Checked again with Jason from the M's site to see if anything has changed, and his statement is that the Reds need a 3rd team to make the deal work. Not sure why that needs to be the case, but perhaps that's why the Gammons rumor was purposely leaked?
    Holy cow, so the wheels are in motion?

  4. #273
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    I repeat, its all about what the next guy wants to offer. Keep showing those players from the 2009 season that went to Cleveland, but it just takes 2 teams to start a bidding war. Do I want the Reds to be foolish...no, but I do want them to participate.

    Oh, I can hear the hand-wringing now..."look what we gave up compared to what the Phillies did...Fire Walt!!!".

  5. #274
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Imagine getting Cliff Lee in a trade & getting a healthy Edinson Volquez back in less than 2 weeks. wow. just wow.
    .

  6. #275
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Imagine getting Cliff Lee in a trade & getting a healthy Edinson Volquez back in less than 2 weeks. wow. just wow.
    That's a team that could win something real, not just sneak into the playoffs.
    Go Gators!

  7. #276
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Lee would help shore up the bullpen a bit too.

    He pitches deep enough into games to take innings away from fringe middle relivers, like the ones that the Reds keep shuffling between AAA and the Majors.

  8. #277
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    Lee would help shore up the bullpen a bit too.

    He pitches deep enough into games to take innings away from fringe middle relivers, like the ones that the Reds keep shuffling between AAA and the Majors.
    And he's likely a rental so why not let him throw 125 pitches?
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #278
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    This feels like the year we should have traded for Rolen but we didn't. We can see the piece that we need...now just go get it.

  10. #279
    Member reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    That's a team that could win something real, not just sneak into the playoffs.
    If you get Lee and Volquez is anywhere near Volquez of 2008, the Reds would be a handful in a short series. I'm not sure what's going to happen with Leake and if they'll shut him down, but even if that happens you can still lineup Cueto and Arroyo in games 3 and 4 of a series as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
    A little bit off topic, but do you guys think that Jesse Winker profiles more like Pete Rose or is he just the next Hal Morris??

  11. #280
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    If Cliff Lee comes to the Reds via a trade, it will probably be for a short time. I can't see Castellini going for one of those 6-year $100 million contracts, and that is what Lee will get. I'd enjoy seeing him in a Reds uniform and what he would bring this year, but I've seen long term contracts for pitchers and they more often than not end in disaster or disappointment. My advice? Don't give up the farm for him unless the farm doesn't seem fertile. Otherwise, walk away, build on what you have, and stay put.

    My guess is that is exactly what the Reds will do when they consider all options.

  12. #281
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    If you get Lee and Volquez is anywhere near Volquez of 2008, the Reds would be a handful in a short series. I'm not sure what's going to happen with Leake and if they'll shut him down, but even if that happens you can still lineup Cueto and Arroyo in games 3 and 4 of a series as well.
    I'd be pretty surprised if Volquez came back and pitched better than Cueto has this season.

  13. #282
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    Checked again with Jason from the M's site to see if anything has changed, and his statement is that the Reds need a 3rd team to make the deal work. Not sure why that needs to be the case, but perhaps that's why the Gammons rumor was purposely leaked?
    Someone to take Harang and his contract. Can't think of any other reason.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  14. #283
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Someone to take Harang and his contract. Can't think of any other reason.
    Yeah, I don't see how the M's will want to take on or eat any money, so Harang may need to go. Oakland would work, that's where he started...
    2015 Rotation: Under Construction

  15. #284
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    Checked again with Jason from the M's site to see if anything has changed, and his statement is that the Reds need a 3rd team to make the deal work. Not sure why that needs to be the case, but perhaps that's why the Gammons rumor was purposely leaked?
    My guess is that the reason a third team needs to be involved is because the Reds need to trade Harang to make Lee fit in budget wise and the Mariners aren't wanting to take him on. That way, the Reds could get an extra B or C prospect for Harang to throw Seattle's way.

    Either that or the M's are looking for something specific (like a young shortstop) that the Reds don't have.

  16. #285
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Good post. Remember, Lee will be worth picks if the M's keep him and don't resign him. I'm not sure the package you presented is sexy enough for the M's though. It's definitely a good package...but I think the Ms want 1 major prospect and I don't think any of the guys you listed are it. I would be thrilled though if they would consider Wood to be a major prospect however.

    I think they will want at least 1 of Alonso or Mesoraco. I'm fine with Alonso, but don't want to part with Mesoraco. He is killing it in AA right now. I do fear that the pick of Grandal may make Mez more expendable.
    Yeah, Mez is absolutely trending the way you like to see. He could end up with 25-30 bombs this year, yummmm. As for Wood, I think he missed the top 100 list because people have wanted to see him distance himself from 2008. Plus, his FB is 88-91, which people like to focus on. This year he's going really well again, with nice strikeout numbers and all. If he pitches well in Chicago, who knows. I may be projecting, but I think it could be an audition, as Wood would go right into the M's rotation.
    2015 Rotation: Under Construction


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