Turn Off Ads?
Page 35 of 43 FirstFirst ... 25313233343536373839 ... LastLast
Results 511 to 525 of 644

Thread: Cliff Lee

  1. #511
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,171

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    34 pages on Cliff Lee? This discussion is starting to remind me of the Erik Bedard threads from a few years ago...
    Yikes! The Erik Bedard trade rumors circled around players like Votto, Cueto, and Bailey. Its a good thing nothing came to fruition over that trade possibility.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #512
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    21,016

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    8 wins worth trading away Yonder and Wood? .

    Most defnitely.. I am not sure Lee is going to be an 8 win swing, but if he was, it would definitely be worth it.

    I could see Lee being a 6 win upgrade over our #5 starter (Homer/Malony/whoever). He would also be a huge plus in the playoff rotation.

    I was initially tepid about getting Lee, but I have come around (provided the pen is also addressed). It would be nice to avoid trading Wood, but you got to do what you've got to do...
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  4. #513
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,041

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Buster Olney posed the question to a guy who works for Accuscore on what win improvements adding Cliff Lee would make for the teams rumored to be involved. It's Insider, but if you have that on espn.com, here is the link:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?...ter&id=5360166

    Basically, he puts acquiring Lee as a +2 in the wins column for the Reds. Not insignificant, but not ground-breaking. The Rangers would be helped most by that guy's forumulations, at a +4 in their wins column.

    That is, at least, a baseline for trade reckoning. What is an additional two wins or so worth to the Reds for a rental?

    I am guessing that is what Walt is weighing right now.

  5. #514
    Member dunner13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    607

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Buster Olneys blog posted some stats from accuscore saying how many wins lee give each team thats interested in him.
    For the reds he gave us two more wins from 89 to 91 and our chances of winning the division went from 42% to 51%.

    This obviously doesnt show the affect the trade would have on our players and the other teams. I think our team would be more energized, gaining momentum and winning more games.

  6. #515
    Member dunner13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    607

    Re: Cliff Lee

    wow looks like you just beat me by seconds membengal

  7. #516
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,041

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Interesting piece, dunner.

    Data is a good thing.

    The overall playoff odds for the Reds go from 64% to 75% with Lee.

  8. #517
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,662

    Re: Cliff Lee

    I think you have to look at the business side of Lee, also, not just projected plus wins. If you determine that he is the piece, I think he generates the excitement that starts to pack the house nightly. A pennant race will eventually do that, but around here, probably not until late Aug-early Sept. A deal in the near term might move that bump into July.

    I still think a Haren move might be less interesting on the surface, but might generate similar on the field results. The good news is that the Reds are currently not desperate to deal. They currently have hand.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  9. #518
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    6,271

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    That is, at least, a baseline for trade reckoning. What is an additional two wins or so worth to the Reds for a rental?

    I am guessing that is what Walt is weighing right now.
    Two wins sounds about right, but at the same time, two wins for a playoff contender - and a postseason hammer - has much more value once digging beneath the surface. That's the key to remember when trying to determine if two wins is worth giving up one package vs. another package.

    The Reds could deal for Lee and win the deal short-term while losing it long-term. But pennants fly forever, and that is ultimately the most important trump card in Walt's bag of tricks.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  10. #519
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    21,016

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Maybe I'm just cynical, but I've seen midseason deal after midsesason deal blow up in the face of the Cincinnati Reds. I honestly cannot remember the last time the team added a player who did anything remotely close to what the team needed / wanted them to do. It seems like these things always backfire for this franchise.
    .
    Juan Guzman was a good trade deadline acquistion. David Wells was a good one.Billy Doran was a good one.

    I agree that 2006 when we were sort of contending.. those deals were not good.

    You've got to remember, a lot of the recent tradeline deals in Bowden's last years kind of sucked because he was unable to add any salary at all. Thus, the Mohlers, etc were trotted in.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #520
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    The 513
    Posts
    12,642

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Crazy.

    There are lots of ways to improve the team. Throwing 3 of your top 5/6 prospects (in a good system) at a two-month rental is a good way to blow up a plan to build a team that competes for an extended window of time.
    Alonso might be a Top-5 prospect, but unless he can play defense in LF (or unless the NL adopts a DH in the next couple months), his only worth to the club is what he can fetch in a trade.

    If you can build a package around him and some B prospects that nets a TOR starter, you do it 100 times out of 100.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  12. #521
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I think you may be valuing those guys a bit more than they're worth. I've been less than impressed with the performances of both Alonso and Francisco, and I'm not very high on their long-term potential.

    It's an interesting twist of events; the Reds haven't been able to develop pitching for well ... eternity. But suddenly now I'm more confident in their pitching prospects than their hitting prospects.
    I'd disagree with you on Alonso but not on the deal, that package suits me just fine. The third guy should be a guy with some potential (not to be confused with good odds perse' or good potential) as well to make it a lock to happen.

    Alonso, Francisco and Watson sounds like a fine package.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  13. #522
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    21,016

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Basically, he puts acquiring Lee as a +2 in the wins column for the Reds. Not insignificant, but not ground-breaking. The Rangers would be helped most by that guy's forumulations, at a +4 in their wins column.

    .
    I just have a hard time believing that popping Lee in the rotation instead of Homer/LeCure/Malony/Wood would only net 2 more wins.

    That's really counter-intuitive to the whole idea of trying to get an ace starting pitcher. Lee is "16-20 game winner" material for a contender.. the guys I listed would be lucky to finish with a .500 record on this team.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #523
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,862

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Alonso might be a Top-5 prospect, but unless he can play defense in LF (or unless the NL adopts a DH in the next couple months), his only worth to the club is what he can fetch in a trade.

    If you can build a package around him and some B prospects that nets a TOR starter, you do it 100 times out of 100.
    This.

    I think Dave Sappelt is the perfect guy to dangle in a trade right now as a throw-in. His value is peaking, and CF is the deepest position in the organization. I'd structure a package like this:

    GROUP A

    Yonder Alonso

    GROUP B

    Travis Wood
    Brad Boxberger
    Juan Francisco
    Todd Fraizer
    Chris Heisey

    GROUP C

    Dave Sappelt
    Felix Perez
    Andrew Means
    Josh Fellhauer
    Sean Henry
    Wladimir Balentien
    Danny Dorn
    Chris Valaika
    Drew Sutton
    Cody Puckett
    Miguel Rojas
    Tom Cochran
    Scott Carroll

    They can pick one from each group- whoever they want. If that's not good enough, move on to Haren or Oswalt.
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #524
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,888

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    This.

    I think Dave Sappelt is the perfect guy to dangle in a trade right now as a throw-in. His value is peaking, and CF is the deepest position in the organization. I'd structure a package like this:

    GROUP A

    Yonder Alonso

    GROUP B

    Travis Wood
    Brad Boxberger
    Juan Francisco
    Todd Fraizer
    Chris Heisey

    GROUP C

    Dave Sappelt
    Felix Perez
    Andrew Means
    Josh Fellhauer
    Sean Henry
    Wladimir Balentien
    Danny Dorn
    Chris Valaika
    Drew Sutton
    Cody Puckett
    Miguel Rojas
    Tom Cochran
    Scott Carroll

    They can pick one from each group- whoever they want. If that's not good enough, move on to Haren or Oswalt.
    That doesn't beat Ramos/Hicks.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #525
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,041

    Re: Cliff Lee

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I just have a hard time believing that popping Lee in the rotation instead of Homer/LeCure/Malony/Wood would only net 2 more wins.

    That's really counter-intuitive to the whole idea of trying to get an ace starting pitcher. Lee is "16-20 game winner" material for a contender.. the guys I listed would be lucky to finish with a .500 record on this team.
    I am not a "stats guy", but I sure don't mind folks that are. I have not read that person's methodology, nor do I offer any comment on it.

    I just thought I would put it out there.

    I do note this, +2 in wins is NOT insignificant, as noted above, it improves, by that formulation, the Reds' chance of winning the division by 9% and making the playoffs by 11%.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25