Each of those players had high-to-decent trade value and could have filled other holes the Brewers currently have, such as a starting pitcher with multiple years left on contract...Originally Posted by johngalt
Each of those players had high-to-decent trade value and could have filled other holes the Brewers currently have, such as a starting pitcher with multiple years left on contract...
You still make the trade. The year picks you. ignore the opportunities and become an also ran.
IF the Reds have the opportunity to get Cliff Lee AND it costs Alonso, Wood, third player, you do it. plain and simple.
BJ Ryan became a pretty dominant closer. It doesn't bother me in the least that he never pitched a game as a Red.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Probability of Reds making postseason without help in the SP department? Low.
Holding onto prospects has merits, but they could easily miss the playoffs without help (and getting another bat or a reliever or both won't be enough to move the needle by themselves; it's going to take a high-end starter).
Now--you have a decision in front of you.
In case you haven't looked, the Reds have one of the better records in baseball as is. Their chances of making the postseason -- especially with Edinson Volquez back to help solidify the rotation down the stretch -- are much better than "low." They're a better team than the Cardinals, in my honest opinion.
But their chances of doing anything in the postseason are likely remote without some pitching reinforcements.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
In the past 30 days, Cliff Lee has 4 CGs and 2 walks. Sure, a Reds prospect MIGHT do that someday...
And in 4 months, Cliff Lee will be signing a 100M contract somewhere else too. Cliff Lee is absolutely 100% better than any player we offer up. No doubt about it. But we aren't trading them for Cliff Lee forever. We only get him for 2-3 months. They get our guy for 5-6 years each.
I wouldn't say their chances are "low," although I completely agree with you that they need another starter. Running Wood, Maloney, and Leake out there from now until the end of the season wouldn't be a wise plan. They need another arm. Whether it's Haren, Millwood, Lee, whomever. I don't want to mortgage the farm, but I don't think we will. Historically speaking, Walt normally knocks these deals out of the park, the Haren deal being the lone exception.
If the 2011 MLB draft were held tommorrow and knowing what we know now, where would Alonso, Mez, and Wood be selected?
Mesoraco and Wood would go in the top 10. Alonso in the top 20.
Thats interesting...truly I was simply throwing that question out there cause I had no idea myself. The Reds have drafted pretty solid over the past 5-6 years thats for sure.
I disagree with Wood. Wood could very well supply this team with a member of its starting rotation for the next five years "on the cheap". This organization needs cheap contributors.
I remember when Homer Bailey was going to be the next Roger Clemens. IIRC, Homer was more hyped and had better projections than Wood. I imagine if this same conversation came up right after Bailey made his debut, some fans would have called boycotted the organization if Bailey was traded for an established ace like Lee.
Walt...PLEASE.....make this deal happen!
But at the time that Homer was a prospect, so was Votto, Bruce and Cueto. There were posters that wanted to trade three of those four for Eric Bedard back then. There is such a thing a giving too much up in a trade.
Definitely get the deal done, but be prudent about it.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Churchill doesn't really have history of breaking factually correct trade news.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
From John Fay:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/07/lee-update/The Reds are still interested, but no new talks have transpired.
There was a report that the Mariners may be more interested in Juan Francisco than Yonder Alonso. A Reds insider doubted that because Seattle’s decisions are often stats-driven. Francisco has more power than Alonso. But Alonso is much better at getting on-base.
The Reds would likely be willing to part with either to get a Lee deal done.
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