What about Vazquez?
What about Vazquez?
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Do you have your shirt on? - Adam Dunn to Marty on the Bananna Phone.
I don't think I need to look for more clarity elsewhere and I don't appreciate the insults, Benihana. I think trading for Cliff Lee in order to win a stinking division title is to think small. I want to see the team built with one goal in mind: to dominate baseball for a decade if possible. And as to keeping Alonso in AAA for three years. I didn't suggest that. If he can play LF, he'll be able to help sooner. That's still to be seen. But I do think it's worth looking at a post Joey Votto future, b/c it seems highly unlikely this team is going to be able to afford Votto, Bruce, and what it's going to need to keep from the pitching staff.
Indeed, and this is why building a team that can contend year after year is nearly impossible, the Reds can't afford it, going for it all when they have a chance is more attainable for little market teams, the 1970's aren't coming back.
All that is worth going after is banners and rings.
Go Gators!
The Rays, Twins, Rockies, Brewers, Rangers, Padres and Diamondbacks have kept all of their top prospects and been in contention during these last three years, all with payrolls very similar to the Reds.
The Reds can easily keep Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Bailey, as long as they stay away from giving out big contracts to guys like Cordero, Harang and Arroyo in the future. Those guys will be off the books by the time this is an issue, and Jocketty has built a lot of payflex into the Reds future.
Worst case scenario, they have to trade one of those big four, but if they are all producing, they will get a ton back for whoever they chose to trade. If not, then they won't have to pay them.
Money is only an issue when you don't spend it wisely.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Assuming that they are both All-Stars, top 3 in the league at their position, they would earn approximately $7M, $10M and $13M in their three arbitration years each.
Assuming that the same for Cueto and and Bailey, they would earn approximately $5M, $8M and $12M in their arbitration years.
Votto's and Cueto's starts in 2011, Bruce's and Bailey's in 2012.
So for 2011, the four would make around $15M total, in 2012, around $30M total and in 2013 around $35M total.
So worst case scenario, in 2013, after three years of All-Star production from these four, they would take up around 35% of the payroll. That's really not too much for the Reds to handle, but even if it is, then trade one of them for a boatload of prospects. By that time, the Reds should have a cheap replacement for at least one of them in house, either with one of the prospects they currently have, or with a draft pick between now and then.
And more importantly, if all four are All-Stars for the next three years, the Reds will be in the playoffs all three years (which includes this year) and be one of the best teams in baseball.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Again no argument. I'm entirely in favor of keeping the cheap in-house replacement we have who promises, IMO, to be pretty close to equal in value to the guy he'll replace--Yonder Alonso. But I think if you start to edge toward 40% of payroll for 4 players, you start to come close to the kind of inflexibility we have now. As you rightly point out, it's not an immediate worry--except in the context where it came up, the call by some to trade Alonso for Lee or presumably other very short term help.
IMO the Twins are a good model for the Reds to emulate. (with one exception: when the Twins go outside their team to spend money they often don't do it wisely). i would like for the Reds to try & build a team than can contend year after year. set the bar at 85 or more wins. any year you don't win 85 games is a failure & something went wrong. the current Reds seem to set the bar a lot lower.
as to a mega deal for Cliff Lee: it doesn't fit the Twins model. the team would trade several of their best prospects for a 3 month rental. not a good long term plan. the Reds don't need to hoard every prospect but they have to be able to build from within. from the All stars to the everyday players to the bench guys they are all a LOT cheaper in years 1-6 than in years 7+ (especially cheap in years 1-2-3).
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I think this is a bit of a moot issue. Lee won't cost some one like Bruce. We saw what the Phillies paid for him and what they got for him and both packages were easily something the Reds could handle without dealing Bruce or maybe not even Alonso (the Phils also got Ben Francisco in that deal). By July his value will be even lower. A package along the lines of Wood, Frazier, Heisey, Ondrusek would be more than enough (it won't be for a year and a half of Lee like the Phils got when they dealt Carlios Carrasco, Lou Marson, Steven Register and John Mayberry Jr) and the Reds wouldn't really miss any of those redundancies. The M's paid even less in the offseason.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
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