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Thread: Juan Francisco

  1. #1
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Juan Francisco

    Code:
    Entire Season	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
    
    Month April	.115	61	4	7	2	1	1	3	2	21      .141	.230	.370
    
    Month May	.531	32	10	17	5	1	3	16	3	2	.571	1.031	1.603
    
    Month June	.292	65	7	19	8	0	1	5	2	15	.309	.462	.770
    
    Month July	.364	33	4	12	1	1	3	5	2	6	.417	.727	1.144
    Since April :

    .369/.423/.669 - 1.092

    3.3 K/BB ratio

    48% of his hits are for extra bases

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  3. #2
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    191 ABs, 44 Ks and 9 BB.

    He has been getting on base more, but that's mostly because he's been hitting so well. He's still striking out a lot and not walking all that much.

    I just don't see any way he could get away with the poor walk rate in the majors while striking out at a near 25% clip. I think his OBP in the majors would have a strong chance of dipping below .300.

  4. #3
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    191 ABs, 44 Ks and 9 BB.

    He has been getting on base more, but that's mostly because he's been hitting so well. ...
    If only he could trade some of those hits for walks ...

  5. #4
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    If only he could trade some of those hits for walks ...
    That would keep his OBP the same and decrease the slugging.

    But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

  6. #5
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That would keep his OBP the same and decrease the slugging.

    But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.
    If he hit .330/.360/.530 and had a respectable k/BB ratio it would be taken just as serious as anyone.

  7. #6
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.
    Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.
    The difference is, it would show that he had some semblance of reaching first base without it being via a hit. Guys who only reach base via the hit either suck, or strike out about 8% of the time they step to the plate and hit .300. Francisco isn't going to strike out that little, so he isn't going to hit .300, so he has to start walking more.

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    I see Fransisco and just think "LH Marcus Thames". They're even built the same way. I think Fransisco will have a decent major league career, in that he'll be in the league for a while, but his best case scenario is Ruben Sierra.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #9
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    I think Juan can get things straightened out for a Sept 2011 call up for good. He'll still be just 24.
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  11. #10
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

    And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.

  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

    And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.
    Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

    I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

  13. #12
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

    I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

    even if he was batting 7th or 8th that wouldnt offset the low obp ?
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  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    Quote Originally Posted by aubashbrother View Post
    even if he was batting 7th or 8th that wouldnt offset the low obp ?
    Offset it in which way? Make it less of an issue? Sure, slightly. But he would still be an out machine with no margin for bad 'luck'.

  15. #14
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Juan Francisco

    I wonder if Alonso/Francisco could've landed Lee. Probably not but who knows...
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: Juan Francisco

    I think Seattle really likes Smoak a lot. I'm not sure they would have taken any other offers.


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