You are using MLB data to compare to a minor leaguer. That's apples to oranges.
Francisco is in the minors. He plays 3B in the minors. Scott Rolen is the Reds 3b. He is much better than Francisco.
Torii Hunter and Alfonso Soriano never had an OPS higher than .330 or had more than 40 walks a year (in the majors) until they were 29 and they are rich and famous now.
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Not only do you have to worry about how his bat (and lack of walks) ytanslate against major league pitching, but his deffense is a major conscern too. Unlessm things have changed he seems just brutal with the glove, no matter where they stick him.
Maybe the Tribe, KC or the A's would be interested in a young DH. Francisco & a prospect to OAK for Michael Taylor?
I don't have faith in Francsico to be consistent power threat in the majors. I'm not saying that he couldn't have a few monster seasons, and Its possible that he could become so dangerous that a decent walk rate could be created by pitchers avoiding him so much, but I don't think Francisco's power is quite that prodigous.
Someone made the Ruben Sierra/Marcus Thames comparisons earlier in the thread, and I think that those comparisons are apt. One thing those 2 guys have in common beyond the fact theat they are hackers on an order reserved only the for the few, is that they're highly volatile performers. A guy like Ruben sierra could post a line like 306/347/543 one year, and then OPS in the mid 700s the very next. Thames is a tad more consistent because he has the luxury of being mostly a platoon player, not playing everyday for full season like Ruben did, and getting to face his handedness of choice more often.
Anyway, guys like Thames, Sierra, and Francisco don't walk enough, so they're at the mercy of their contact rates and how many flyballs can turn into homers. Now a guy like Francisco could be very successful in GABP, because lots of flyballs will become homers for him. He could also find a semblance plate discipline, maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but I don't have much faith for him to radically change as a hitter.
I say sell high while we can, I just can't value a guy who hacks as much as Francisco especially with a team so full of hackers already. Also, he's doesnt exactly have "manos de oro" in the field either. Francisco may very well turn into a prodigous power hitter some day, but I value him less than other reds prospects who have some ability to judge the zone. He's definitely an interesting prospect, but I just don't see him at third base, and there are better options for left field IMO.
1) While somewhat similar, their BB/K issues were of a lesser degree than Fransisco's. Soriano had a 2.71 BB:K ratio in the minor leagues and also had game changing speed that let him beat out infield singles to keep his avg up. Hunter was at 2.51. Fransisco sits at 6.14. He's got a LONG ways to go.
2) When examining his chances of making it by looking at comparable players, the proper comp group is not the guys who made it and were successful, but of all players of similar skills at his age in the minor leagues. I've admittedly not looked at that data recently. I believe Doug has. One can almost always find exceptions to the rule. But these examples only show that it's possible -- they don't speak to likelihood in any way whatsoever.
I don't think anybody here is saying that Fransisco will absolutely, positively not make it. What we are saying, if I can presume to speak for others, is that it's a big uphill battle for him. That he's already in AAA could give one the impression that he's almost ready. Hes' not. He's going to need to develop quite a bit before his skill set is transferable. Maybe that happens, maybe not. But if we can turn that possibility in to some realized production on the 25 man roster during the 2010 season, I'd happily do it.
Seems to be that strike zone judgment is very important, but you also have to produce.
In Francisco, I see a guy who produces but needs to improve his strike zone judgment.
Most of the other guys, well, they don't produce nearly as much. They may walk more, they may have better strike zone judgment. But where is the production?
Being able to hit in the minors better than someone doesn't mean you will be able to do that in the majors because the majors are a different breed.
Is "a poor man's Pablo Sandoval" a good comparison? Basically Sandoval with less contact?
Without reading all of the posts in this thread so forgive me if this has been talked about. I have a thought on Fransisco. Ok his OBP may be low if he plays every day in the Majors right now, and he will strike out a lot but, I will take him 10 days out of 10 pinch hitting against a righty over Lance Nix. Why not bring him up to fill that spot. If the front office doesn't think Heiseys developement is being damaged with his lack of PT right now I don't see how they could feel that way about Fransisco. We are in a pennant race right NOW and if I have to see Nix K or hit a high fly ball to right again I think I'm gonna puke. We have parts in the minors right now that can help make this team better NOW, Chapman in the pen, Maloney in the pen, Fransisco off the bench ect. Make the moves and see what happens. I don't think Nix to AAA is going to hurt anyone in the dugouts feelings and I would love to see a shake up after dropping 4 to the Phills. Maybe a couple moves is what we need to wake up the bats.
Look at a guy like Ryan Hanigan, besides his fielding prowess, his minor league stats have little to recommend to him other than an ability to work a walk. There were many on this board (I've lurked on these parts quite a while), and in other places, such as Baseball Prospectus, who said that Hanigan was a career minor leaguer because no pitcher would have reason to not pound the zone against him because he has no power. Sure the guy has little power, but hes shown at the major league level to this point that his judgement translates, and that when challenged, he can often come away with solid contact.
Now Francisco is definitely a guy with potential to be a more valuable player than Ryan Hanigan. But can he really achieve that potential? Francisco has a mighty high mountain to clime to reach his celing, or anything close to it, as a player. His poor defense surely holds him back, this will subtract from his value as a hitter. And what value as a hitter can he have, when he cant take a walk, very few hitters have have become big time contributors when terribly impatient. I can only think of one, Vlad.
Sure guy's can improve their plate discipline, Jay Bruce is a good example of someone who has improved his plate discipline upon coming to the majors. He's improved on his minor league walks rates by about 2%. But I don't have faith in guys to radically change what they are as hitters. Francisco is a hacker, he will most likely always be a hacker, but the question is to what degree.
I just think that Francisco isn't the type of player the Reds should be relying on to produce in the future. I also think he's the kind of player that the Reds should sell high on, because if a team is willing to ignore his glaring deficiencies and focus on his shining talents, then the Reds should take advantage of that.