# Thread: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

1. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by CentralKYRedfan
This team fails at this 5 or 6 times a week. They've done it in 3 straight games. It's uncanny how they just can't get it done.
nm

3. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by George Foster
No way I sac bunt with a guy on 2nd and no out. You are giving away an out. If you don't bunt you have 3 chances to get a hit and score.
"No way"? Are you sure?

Because in SOME ways, I definitely agree. But in others, years and years of data shows you EXACTLY why you bunt to advance a runner with no outs. It's not about the mere act of sacrificing, it's about the CONTEXT.

This is stuff I'm interested in, so I have the info saved in my documents folder, so I don't know precisely which SABR-wanker site I stole this from, but I assure you, it's as accurate as SABR-wankers can be...

In all MLB games since 1955, the following numbers tell the tale:

When there is a runner on 2nd and zero outs, at least one run has scored 62% of the time.

When there is a runner on 3rd and one out, at least one run has scored 67% of the time.

When there is a runner on 2nd and zero outs, the "runs expection" is 1.2 runs per chance.

When there is a runner on 3rd and two outs, the "runs expectation" is 0.9 runs per chance.

SYNTHESIS: if you have a runner on 2nd and zero outs in a close game where 1 run matters, YOU F'N BUNT THE GUY OVER TO THIRD because the chances of scoring a single run are increased by doing so by 5%. But if you've got a runner on 2nd and zero outs in a game where you're way behind, then you do NOT bunt the guy over because you will -- on average -- score 0.3 more runs per instance by swinging away, and you need a Big Inning instead of just one run.

THAT is why you bunt, sometimes. SOMEtimes. Every bunt the Reds tried tonight was OK by me, in context. It was close. One run mattered. That's how you get one run. We didn't execute, but that has nothing to do with the fact that the play we called was correct.

Now: say the same "no way" thing about bunting a guy over and "giving up an out" with 1 out, instead of 0 outs? Then you're onto something. The data pretty much shows that's a diptard move. Scoring Expectancy (the probability of scoring at least ONE run) drops from 66% to 23% if you go from runner-on-2nd-one-out to runner-on-third-2-outs, and the Run Expectancy goes from .73 runs-per-chance to .38 runs-per-chance.

What kind of idiot halves his chances to succeed by sacrificing with 1 out? A surprisingly large constituency of idiots, as it turns out, but that doesn't make it right.

Sacrificing with zero outs, however, can often be the right move. In the words of Ron Burgandy: It's science, people.

Rick

4. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by Maker_84
and everybody thought we a clutch hitting team..not really
We lead the league in BA w/RISP not like a week ago (?) with a .287 avg. We've had a rough stretch. We'll see how we continue after the break.

5. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by FlightRick
"No way"? Are you sure?

Because in SOME ways, I definitely agree. But in others, years and years of data shows you EXACTLY why you bunt to advance a runner with no outs. It's not about the mere act of sacrificing, it's about the CONTEXT.

This is stuff I'm interested in, so I have the info saved in my documents folder, so I don't know precisely which SABR-wanker site I stole this from, but I assure you, it's as accurate as SABR-wankers can be...

In all MLB games since 1955, the following numbers tell the tale:

When there is a runner on 2nd and zero outs, at least one run has scored 62% of the time.

When there is a runner on 3rd and one out, at least one run has scored 67% of the time.

When there is a runner on 2nd and zero outs, the "runs expection" is 1.2 runs per chance.

When there is a runner on 3rd and two outs, the "runs expectation" is 0.9 runs per chance.

SYNTHESIS: if you have a runner on 2nd and zero outs in a close game where 1 run matters, YOU F'N BUNT THE GUY OVER TO THIRD because the chances of scoring a single run are increased by doing so by 5%. But if you've got a runner on 2nd and zero outs in a game where you're way behind, then you do NOT bunt the guy over because you will -- on average -- score 0.3 more runs per instance by swinging away, and you need a Big Inning instead of just one run.

THAT is why you bunt, sometimes. SOMEtimes. Every bunt the Reds tried tonight was OK by me, in context. It was close. One run mattered. That's how you get one run. We didn't execute, but that has nothing to do with the fact that the play we called was correct.

Now: say the same "no way" thing about bunting a guy over and "giving up an out" with 1 out, instead of 0 outs? Then you're onto something. The data pretty much shows that's a diptard move. Scoring Expectancy (the probability of scoring at least ONE run) drops from 66% to 23% if you go from runner-on-2nd-one-out to runner-on-third-2-outs, and the Run Expectancy goes from .73 runs-per-chance to .38 runs-per-chance.

What kind of idiot halves his chances to succeed by sacrificing with 1 out? A surprisingly large constituency of idiots, as it turns out, but that doesn't make it right.

Sacrificing with zero outs, however, can often be the right move. In the words of Ron Burgandy: It's science, people.

Rick
I was going to post something similar. I think most have an inning and situation where it works. Late in the game (opponent has 2 or less at bats left) and a tied or one run game many agree bunting is the right call. Prior to that or a greater run differential if you are behind, you do not bunt. Most of the time Dusty actually follows that rule except when facing a top pitcher (which I don't really agree with, but debatable).

The only problem I had tonight was doing it with the pitcher hitting 4th in the inning. I was surprised the Phillies did not walk Hanigan. Their original plan may have been to pitch around him, but Halladay got ahead in the count (I think he actually missed his first pitch and it was a strike).

6. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Yes this cost us so badly last night. Definitely the worst at this over the entire season has been Bruce. Last night it was Hanigan who is a guy I would usually be happy with in that type of situation.

7. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by Orodle
Yes this cost us so badly last night. Definitely the worst at this over the entire season has been Bruce. Last night it was Hanigan who is a guy I would usually be happy with in that type of situation.
I dread watching Jay Bruce come to the plate with runners in scoring position. Pitiful.

I'd consider trading Bruce right now for someone equal who can hit with RISP, while Bruce's value is high and he's obviously young enough for other teams to get excited about.

8. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by Orodle
Yes this cost us so badly last night. Definitely the worst at this over the entire season has been Bruce. Last night it was Hanigan who is a guy I would usually be happy with in that type of situation.
.333/.350/.533

Jay Bruce this year with man on 3rd less than 2 outs. Talk about being awful...

9. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by CentralKYRedfan
This team fails at this 5 or 6 times a week. They've done it in 3 straight games. It's uncanny how they just can't get it done.
They are the worst in the league at this.

It's Duhsty's fault.

10. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by Kingspoint
They are the worst in the league at this.

It's Duhsty's fault.
Any stats to back up that they are the worst in the league in that situation?

11. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

He's being facetious. As I already said, up until very recently they lead the league in BA w/RISP.

12. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by RiverRat13
Any stats to back up that they are the worst in the league in that situation?
I was actually telling the truth.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...-batting.shtml

Look under the last heading that says, "Advances", then under the sub-category that shows, "%". Highlight your mouse over it and it will say, "PA's with less than two out, runner on third and runner scored", and you'll see that only 46% of the REDS' Plate Appearances causes the runner to score from 3rd and less than two outs. That's tied for last in the National League with Milwaukie. San Diego is 1st at 58%, followed by the Mets and Giants at 57%.

What teams do in the American League doesn't matter as they don't have Pitchers hitting and they get to add any bat to their lineup to sub for the Pitcher. They should be better, but they aren't. Only one American League team is better than 53%, Kansas City at 57%, while Cleveland is only at 43%. The American League average is at 50%, while the National League average is at 52%.

Cincy's average was 50% in 2007, 50% in 2008 and 48% in 2009. They've gotten worse each of the last two years. They have yet to improve from one year to the next under Dusty Baker in this area.

Dusty's last three years in Chicago, his team was 49% in 2006, 46% in 2005, and 51% in 2004, the last time a Dusty Baker managed team was better than "league average", which was 50% in 2004.

The last time the REDS led the league in this department was 1998, when they had a 56% success rate. Jack McKeon was the Manager. They finished 77-85. They did win 96 games the next season.

They also led the league in '93 under Tony Perez for 44 games before being replaced by Davey Johnson.

For perspective, the 1976 REDS were the same percentage this year's Club is....at 46% (but, they weren't last in the League, they were middle where the league average was 47%).

13. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

I need to stop equating RISP with this specific scenario then obviously. Pardon my faulty logic.

14. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Originally Posted by Vottomatic
I dread watching Jay Bruce come to the plate with runners in scoring position. Pitiful.

I'd consider trading Bruce right now for someone equal who can hit with RISP, while Bruce's value is high and he's obviously young enough for other teams to get excited about.

whoaaaa nellie. i agree that JB looks like a high schooler trying to score a run but lets still give him time....remember, Drew Stubbs bats after him and Drew couldnt make contact in slowpitch softball.....so pitchers are giving JB everything in their arsenal.

15. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in! George Grande!

16. ## Re: Runner at 3rd,less than 2 outs killing this team

whoaaaa nellie. i agree that JB looks like a high schooler trying to score a run but lets still give him time....remember, Drew Stubbs bats after him and Drew couldnt make contact in slowpitch softball.....so pitchers are giving JB everything in their arsenal.
Boy needs Protection! LOL!!!!!

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