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Thread: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

  1. #16
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    I thought of writing "Specific sections of Redszone, after having perused minor league splits across four levels, on-base percentage, and a lack of playing time in the major leagues, while reconizing the possibility of small sample size issues inherent within projection, prefer ___________________".

    But it was a little wordy.

    Maybe next time!

    (I'd also love to see a poll of Janish v. Cabrera. I'd bet Janish wins Redszone's "favored-- umm, I mean... Well, whatever, in a landslide.)
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  3. #17
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Nice snark. Well done.

  4. #18
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If you think SS is a problem, then you think LF is a problem. Both have unproven internal "solutions" where the primary value would come through improved defense.
    I think both are a problem. The pen could use a boost too.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #19
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    I don't think Dusty will change anything going forward with respect to the lineup. The team is winning and the offense is doing well overall so I think he'll leave it alone.

  6. #20
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I don't think Dusty will change anything going forward with respect to the lineup. The team is winning and the offense is doing well overall so I think he'll leave it alone.
    I think you are absolutely correct.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  7. #21
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    The writer incorrectly that suggested that the Reds could not afford Haren. A quick look at Cot's and he would see that they can. Can't blame him, he's in school and probably didn't have a lot of time to research the article. lol

    But seriously, I don't think SS is a problem. Yeah, I could be improved, but it's not something so bad that if not addressed the Reds can't win the division.

    Starting pitching and the closer on the other hand...
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  8. #22
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    But seriously, I don't think SS is a problem. Yeah, I could be improved, but it's not something so bad that if not addressed the Reds can't win the division.
    At the ASB, only Yadier Molina in the NL has a lower OPS (.595) than Cabrera's .612.

    As a couple of reference points: Juan Castro's career OPS is .595. Royce Clayton retired with a .679 OPS, and Pokey Reese hung it up with a .659 OPS.

  9. #23
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #24
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.
    I'm hard-pressed to figure out if his defense (his problem) or his batting order spot (Dusty's problem) is more of an issue.

    For fun, I did a mid-season evaluation using the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool. I punched in the most common lineup I could rememer:

    BP
    O-Cab
    Votto
    Rolen
    Bruce
    Stubbs
    Catcher (average stats of all our catchers)
    Pitcher (same)

    The tool predicted that lineup would score 4.96 runs per game or 804 runs on the season.

    The Reds have played 90 games and scored 437 runs which works out to 4.86 runs per game or 787 runs on the season. Pretty close!

    The best lineup the tool came up with would score 5.23 runs per game or 847 runs on the season.

    Now, many of those lineups had the catcher leading off (I've heard that somewhere!) or Votto. Very few had O-Cab hitting higher than 6th although one had him hitting 3rd. The 1998-2002 had better results for the optimized lineup than the 1959-2004 model.

    Offensively, I think a couple wins could be found just via better lineup. Defensively, I think a couple wins could be found on the bench. Add in a starting pitcher who could throw in a couple wins and it seems one could find a 6-ish win improvement doing very little.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  11. #25
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.
    I'm curious as to what makes you say that his defense is mediocre. Fangraphs has him as a slightly above average defender so far this. As it has been often said that you need about 3 years worth of data for UZR to mean anything, fangraphs also has him as a slightly above average defender over the last 3 years.

    I will grant you that Janish's glove is better than OC's, and that OC's bat has been well below average, but the numbers, and my eyes tell me that OC has not been nearly as bad on D as many on this board have made him out to be.

    That being said, it's tough to argue that OC is the better option at SS right now.

  12. #26
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Right.

    To me, the whole "Redszone favorite: Chris Denorfia" meme is played. I found that bit to be more joke than anything.
    You thought the folks calling for Chris Denorfia as a solution in the OF were joking? That's not how I saw it at all.
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

  13. #27
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Klu View Post
    You thought the folks calling for Chris Denorfia as a solution in the OF were joking? That's not how I saw it at all.
    I think a lot of jokes grew out of that, yes.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  14. #28
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Klu View Post
    You thought the folks calling for Chris Denorfia as a solution in the OF were joking? That's not how I saw it at all.
    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I think a lot of jokes grew out of that, yes.
    I was never joking about Denorfia, but we should use the term "solution" lightly. Like Brady Clark before him, and Chris Heisey today, he was viewed by many not necessarily an ideal solution, but as the best of the available options.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #29
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I'm curious as to what makes you say that his defense is mediocre. Fangraphs has him as a slightly above average defender so far this. As it has been often said that you need about 3 years worth of data for UZR to mean anything, fangraphs also has him as a slightly above average defender over the last 3 years.

    I will grant you that Janish's glove is better than OC's, and that OC's bat has been well below average, but the numbers, and my eyes tell me that OC has not been nearly as bad on D as many on this board have made him out to be.
    I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #30
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    Re: Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.
    So you aren't a buyer of UZR either? Because that stat has him in the top 40% of the majors at the position this year.


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