Fangraphs: What the Cincinnati Reds should do

[edabbs44]

OCab has had some bad luck on the BABIP front, so I expect his 2nd half OPS to come up closer to .700. That said, I believe Janish will OPS in that range as well and is CLEARLY a better defender. I recognize that OCab will be our primary starter, so long as he's on the team. What bugs me is the damage his mediocre defense does to our pitching staff.

Rick, as a serious question (and since you alluded to it here) don't you think the smart money would be on OC in the 2nd half? That is, barring that he is injured and will be moving fwd.

[Homer Bailey]

I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.

Do to the extreme length of our back and forth on the WoTV metric in the Gomes thread(s), I'm inclined to believe that you are kidding here. However, there is no trademark Nate emoticon, so I'm a bit worried here.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you aren't 100% contradicting yourself.

[nate]

Do to the extreme length of our back and forth on the WoTV metric in the Gomes thread(s), I'm inclined to believe that you are kidding here. However, there is no trademark Nate emoticon, so I'm a bit worried here.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you aren't 100% contradicting yourself.

How am I contradicting myself?

[OnBaseMachine]

I've seen probably 90% of the games and according to my personal WoTV score, he's looked pretty bad out there; he has Hairston-esque range but a decent arm.

I agree with this. I've watched almost every game this season including five games in person and my eyes tell me his range is below average at this point in his career. He looks even worse in person.

[RedsManRick]

Rick, as a serious question (and since you alluded to it here) don't you think the smart money would be on OC in the 2nd half? That is, barring that he is injured and will be moving fwd.

Offensively, I think it's it 50/50 between OCab and Janish. But I think the defensive difference makes up the expected offensive difference -- plus I think there's a reasonable chance that Janish outhits Cabrera.

I recognize that Cabrera has been dealing with a bum wheel and suffering from some bad BABIP related luck. As such, I expect something from him like what he did last year: .284/.316/.380. I don't see much upside beyond that and a decent amount of downside given his age.

From Janish, I'd put a median project of .250/.320/.360, but with .280/.380/.400 potential. You look at his last two years and he's had BABIPs of .230 and .247 while putting up solid LD%. He's always been able to draw a walk and his strikeouts are trending down as his contact rate has gone up and swinging strike rate down. Given what we've heard about his offseason focus, given that he's in his prime, and given that his current .860 OPS is supported by a reasonable .311 BABIP, I think it's completely reasonable to think he could out OPS Cabrera. And because his OBP is more heavily weighted towards OPS, his actually offensive production would be superior, particularly leading off or in the 2 hole.

As for defense, scouting/observing alone tells that Janish is the clearly superior defender. UZR estimates put that difference at around 10 runs over a full season. I think that it's highly likely that defensive difference would be realized given the opportunity. If you grant that, you need to believe that Cabrera will out-produce Janish at the plate by an even greater margin to be the better bet.

A 4 to 5 run difference in UZR is equal to a 20 point difference in wOBA over 250 PA. (wOBA is basically a more accurate version of OPS, scaled to OBP -- .330 is league average). So let's say that Cabrera puts up the same .310 wOBA he did last year. Janish could put up a .290 wOBA and produce the same as Cabrera overall. Janish's career wOBA is .282. Last year it was .275. This year it's at .370. Cabrera is currently at .278.

In other words, Janish would have to hit like Cabrera has so far this year for Cabrera, hitting like he did last year, to be his equal. In short, if both guys were healthy and given 250 PA and 600 Innings in the field, I'd put my money on Janish being the more productive player and I wouldn't hesitate for a second in doing so.

[Homer Bailey]

How am I contradicting myself?

You shredded the WoTV metric in many-a-Gomes thread. Now you're using it for OC?

[nate]

You shredded the WoTV metric

Did I? Or did I simply say it's incomplete?

in many-a-Gomes thread. Now you're using it for OC?

As I've said many times, I use both. I could buy that he's averagish to perhaps even slightly above average and when I weight his last three years along with regressing this year, he goes from a 15.2 defender to a 3.63 guy which would seem to confirm that. Divide that by three to get a yearly number and it's 1.21, not entirely different than the 1.8 he's got so far on the year.

(The above math isn't part of any system other than my interpretation of reading the UZR primer)

And it goes to my larger point about the mind's ability to see, recall and process all of these events. It can't. The metrics can. There's probably some confirmation bias while we're enjoying great hilarity in chat as well. But all I can say is, he's looked bad out there. I actually wonder if he might need glasses because based on some of the balls he swings at and a couple of plays where he's dived OVER a ball, he looks like he doesn't see well.

That being said, the metrics do say he's made the fewest out of zone plays of any SS with 700 defensive innings. They also say he's middle of the pack at making plays on balls in zone so maybe what I'm remember is correct but it's only a small part of what makes up "defense."

So I'll split the difference between "slightly above average" and "pretty bad" and call him "blahverage" with the glove.

High five?

Is now a good time to talk about Gomes' UZR rating so far this season?

[Homer Bailey]

Did I? Or did I simply say it's incomplete?

To-may-toe to-mah-toe

As I've said many times, I use both.

As was my case in the Gomes thread.

I could buy that he's averagish to perhaps even slightly above average and when I weight his last three years along with regressing this year, he goes from a 15.2 defender to a 3.63 guy which would seem to confirm that. Divide that by three to get a yearly number and it's 1.21, not entirely different than the 1.8 he's got so far on the year.

(The above math isn't part of any system other than my interpretation of reading the UZR primer)

Calculation sounds about right in my book.

And it goes to my larger point about the mind's ability to see, recall and process all of these events. It can't. The metrics can. There's probably some confirmation bias while we're enjoying great hilarity in chat as well. But all I can say is, he's looked bad out there. I actually wonder if he might need glasses because based on some of the balls he swings at and a couple of plays where he's dived OVER a ball, he looks like he doesn't see well.

Agree with all except I just don't think he's been that bad (WoTV). I'd say confirmation bias exists all over this board, with myself being very guilty of it as well. I think there is a LOT of it with Cabrera's defense, as he was AWFUL in that first week. Most balls that he gets to, its an out.

That being said, the metrics do say he's made the fewest out of zone plays of any SS with 700 defensive innings. They also say he's middle of the pack at making plays on balls in zone so maybe what I'm remember is correct but it's only a small part of what makes up "defense."

So I'll split the difference between "slightly above average" and "pretty bad" and call him "blahverage" with the glove.

High five?

Is now a good time to talk about Gomes' UZR rating so far this season?

[Mario-Rijo]

I'm hard-pressed to figure out if his defense (his problem) or his batting order spot (Dusty's problem) is more of an issue.

For fun, I did a mid-season evaluation using the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool. I punched in the most common lineup I could rememer:

BP
O-Cab
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Stubbs
Catcher (average stats of all our catchers)
Pitcher (same)

The tool predicted that lineup would score 4.96 runs per game or 804 runs on the season.

The Reds have played 90 games and scored 437 runs which works out to 4.86 runs per game or 787 runs on the season. Pretty close!

The best lineup the tool came up with would score 5.23 runs per game or 847 runs on the season.

Now, many of those lineups had the catcher leading off (I've heard that somewhere!) or Votto. Very few had O-Cab hitting higher than 6th although one had him hitting 3rd. The 1998-2002 had better results for the optimized lineup than the 1959-2004 model.

Offensively, I think a couple wins could be found just via better lineup. Defensively, I think a couple wins could be found on the bench. Add in a starting pitcher who could throw in a couple wins and it seems one could find a 6-ish win improvement doing very little.

That lineup might do better if it had a LF in it.

[nate]

To-may-toe to-mah-toe

I dunno. I think there's a chasm of difference between "shredding" and "incomplete."

Agree with all except I just don't think he's been that bad (WoTV). I'd say confirmation bias exists all over this board, with myself being very guilty of it as well. I think there is a LOT of it with Cabrera's defense, as he was AWFUL in that first week. Most balls that he gets to, its an out.

For me, it's not so much the difference between O-Cab and the league, it's the difference between O-Cab and Janish.

[nate]

That lineup might do better if it had a LF in it.

I'm eschewing the LF in favor of a dragon-mounted wizard.



(Gomes was in the 5-spot)

[buckeyenut]

At the ASB, only Yadier Molina in the NL has a lower OPS (.595) than Cabrera's .612.

As a couple of reference points: Juan Castro's career OPS is .595. Royce Clayton retired with a .679 OPS, and Pokey Reese hung it up with a .659 OPS.

The sad thing about that is that it should read NL allstar starting catcher Yadier Molina. Evidence the rules for AS game need changed.

[Chip R]

I don't think Dusty will change anything going forward with respect to the lineup. The team is winning and the offense is doing well overall so I think he'll leave it alone.

Dusty has changed the basic structure of the lineup twice this season.

[Will M]

Several things have happened recently that have altered my view of what the Reds biggest need(s) is.
#1 The return & dominance of Volquez (albeit for just one start) & the big spash made by Travis Wood. While any team could always use another TOR starter I see a Reds rotation of Volquez-Cueto-Arroyo-Wood-Leake as pretty good & matching up well with the Cardinals & their poor BOR starters. Add in the return of Harang and maybe Bailey & the rotation looks good.
#2 The improved middle relief (Ondrusek, Bray, Smith & a better Masset)
#3 The return to planet earth of Gomes

Two things have been a sore spot all season: Cabrera & Cordero.

Here is what I see the Reds "wish list" being:
1. another TOR starter to make a 1-2 punch in October
2. 8th/9th inning reliever
3. shortstop
4. LH bat to play LF

We have seen a lot of low scoring games in the last few weeks. I personally feel that improving the day to day lineup is the most important need the team has. The ways to do this are...
1. find a LH outfield bat better than Nix or Dickerson
2. find a SS better than Cabrera or Janish